ATL: MILTON - Models

[Blown Away]

I think its narrowing further to maybe Port Charlotte or Venice on the Southern end. Throwing out the mostly useless Canadian

Nah man, can’t make any definitive decisions that narrow 3-4 days out. I always like to throw climatology in the mix, and a direct MH landfall between Englewood to Tampa is very rare. ATM, looks like that may change, but still plenty of time to shift 100 miles in any direction.

We will see. I'm not a big climatology as we don't have enough history and data set and each year and each storm adds a new mix to climatology and new firsts.

No doubt, climatology for MH for Tampa being tested here with the current model runs.
If it’s been over a 100 years since it last happened, I’m betting against it.

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go with the 0z hurricane models, HAFS-B has 150kts by 0z tomorrow (7pm CDT)

[ElectricStorm]

Anyone know much about that island north of the Yucatan? Both HAFS have an absolute monster Cat 5 going right over it

[USTropics]

GFS 00z ensembles, less spread this run:

[CFLHurricane]

Anyone know much about that island north of the Yucatan? Both HAFS have an absolute monster Cat 5 going right over it

Per Wikipedia, Scorpion Island is part an atoll that is a major bird sanctuary. The only people there is a contingent of Mexican military personnel, who have hopefully evacuated.

[Teban54]

Anyone know much about that island north of the Yucatan? Both HAFS have an absolute monster Cat 5 going right over it

Per Wikipedia, Scorpion Island is part an atoll that is a major bird sanctuary. The only people there is a contingent of Mexican military personnel, who have hopefully evacuated.

Obviously human impacts are what people focus on, but I can't help but feel bad for the birds.

[Blown Away]

Not often you see a modeled 188 mph hurricane…

[Woofde]

Not often you see a modeled 188 mph hurricane…

I think this one is a little more realistic contender than the runs we saw with Helene. It has such a tight core, could ramp fast.

[Keldeo1997]

Despite Recon data into the models both HAFS still bomb out to sub 900MB 160Kt CAT 5s. I mean we'll see but its crazy to see the run to run consistency.

[ElectricStorm]

Alright HAFS you can stop now

[Woofde]

Alright HAFS you can stop now

I think HAFS may be a bit overtuned for these super intense hurricanes. HWRF and HMON looks much more realistic, as did they with Helene. I'm not going to be thrilled if they do end up retiring these two models.

[LandoWill]

ECMWF seems faster on their 00z

[Blown Away]

One positive is models are also consistently showing Cat 2/3 as Milton approaches the coast.

[Fancy1002]

So the HAFS are nuts, and the HMON is worst case scenario, let’s see what HWRF does.

[ElectricStorm]

Alright HAFS you can stop now
https://i.imgur.com/heYUNx9.png
https://i.imgur.com/Ugucck8.png

I think HAFS may be a bit overtuned for these super intense hurricanes. HWRF and HMON looks much more realistic, as did they with Helene. I'm not going to be thrilled if they do end up retiring these two models.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241007/b1fac79c84146949f8b3a7e4810e9059.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20241007/07fb7d2db8de14551f195508a38fb993.jpg

Yeah I agree although I think this will likely be stronger than the low end Cat 4 the HWRF and HMON have. I wouldn't be surprised at all if it makes a Cat 5 run but I'll be shocked if if goes sub 900/165kts+ like the HAFS.

But unfortunately I believe HMON and HWRF are done after November

[Fancy1002]

One positive is models are also consistently showing Cat 2/3 as Milton approaches the coast.

I don’t think that will help with the storm surge that was already built up. I remember Katrina land falling as a three with a storm surge of her former cat five self.

[Blown Away]

So the HAFS are nuts, and the HMON is worst case scenario, let’s see what HWRF does.

Decent S shift in HMON at landfall near Tampa.

[LandoWill]

[LandoWill]

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2024100700/060/prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

[chris_fit]

00z European little south of 12z and 18z