ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Serious question I have a friend that’s never been in a major hurricane before. He currently lives about 14 miles away from Ft Myers beach in an apartment. It’s just him and his wife. Should I tell him to evacuate?

He should follow the advice of his local weather service and disaster management agency.

But he should definitely have packed his bags.

[Buck]

We've had some jaw dropping storms and seasons since, but this is the first time I've felt like I'm back in 2005 since 2005. (2020 felt like it's own thing.)

[kevin]

So we had a maybe-cat 5 with Kirk a few days ago. And of course a cat 4 Beryl in June and a cat 5 Beryl in July. No MH in August and people calling season cancel in mid-September. But then we got Helene and now most likely the 2nd operational cat 5 of the year and in October. 2024 is the weirdest season I've ever tracked and I was also here in 2020.

[longhorn2004]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Physics dictates that it should and the dry air it will be sucking in soon. And I will enjoy seeing it.

[tolakram]

The tiny eye won't last long IMO, and I expect Milton will be a lot larger in a day.

[Buck]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Physics dictates that it should and the dry air it will be sucking in soon. And I will enjoy seeing it.

Is someone calling for dry air entrainment the new "free space" on our hurricane forum bingo card? Or is it still eyewall replacement cycles?

[skillz305]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

[TampaWxLurker]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Campeche Bank off the northern coast is fairly shallow and the water there cools much faster than in other parts of the Gulf. I haven't seen any SST maps to know what temps look like there currently. Does anyone have an up to date SST map?

[LandoWill]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

i am still trying to figure out why they moved it north at 5am other than just to do so and be on the side of caution

[fsucory08]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

I don't think so. The early 12z runs on Tropical Tidbits seem to be right on where they have it now.

[StPeteMike]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

They have been pretty set with the track the last couple advisories. I feel like we will see the majority of track changes once it passes the Yucatan and where the NE track starts and at what angle. Will it be be more North of East or vice versa?

[Pasmorade]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Campeche Bank off the northern coast is fairly shallow and the water there cools much faster than in other parts of the Gulf. I haven't seen any SST maps to know what temps look like there currently. Does anyone have an up to date SST map?

I'm not sure if its up to date, but this map by NOAA states that the SSTs, although colder than the one Milton is in, aren't that cold. (30-31C vs 28-29C)

[Javlin]

Looks like a Cat 4 as of 8:05AM

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 1305.shtml?

[fsucory08]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

They have been pretty set with the track the last couple advisories. I feel like we will see the majority of track changes once it passes the Yucatan and where the NE track starts and at what angle. Will it be be more North of East or vice versa?

I agree completely. Most of the remaining uncertainty is around the speed of the turn and speed of MIlton once it starts heading toward Florida. Some ensemble members have it faster than the operational GFS/Euro, some have it faster.

[TallyTracker]

Serious question I have a friend that’s never been in a major hurricane before. He currently lives about 14 miles away from Ft Myers beach in an apartment. It’s just him and his wife. Should I tell him to evacuate?

There’s a lot of questions needed to answer that question.

1. Are they in a flood zone? If Yes, EVACUATE.
2. Are they in a sturdy structure (preferably 1st story with a protected interior room or bathroom)? If like most recent apartments in FL, No EVACUATE.
3. Is there a risk of trees falling on the structure or vehicles? If Yes, recommend evacuation.
4. Can they handle being without power, water and communications for at least 2 weeks? If No, EVACUATE.
5. Are they extremely freaked out? If Yes, recommend evacuation. If you cannot maintain your head well in a crisis, it’s best to avoid the life-threatening part of the crisis.

Homes can be rebuilt and stuff replaced. Lives cannot. I don’t know their exact situation, but if any of these items hit a nerve with them, they should get out for a few days.

[Category5Kaiju]

Alright, good morning folks. I wonder how Milton is doing now, surely it’s probably a strong Category 2 by noOH MY GOD WHAT ON EARTH IT’S A HIGH-END CATEGORY 4 RIGHT NOW?!!!

[TheAustinMan]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Milton's churning of the waters itself will probably cool the waters a bit. However, this effect may actually be reduced because Milton's unusually moving west to east. The net movement of water at depth is 90 degrees to the right of the direction of the wind, so in this case the water is driven southward towards the Yucatan coast, resulting in downwelling rather than upwelling. Thus, the water that replaces the churned up waters may come from the north rather than from the cooler ocean depths. This can actually, counterintuitively, mean that a hurricane moving in this manner can churn up water in shallow waters in a manner that actually promotes further intensification.

[kevin]

Eye warming up again on IR, around -50C now. The next recon pass should almost certainly find a cat 5 imo.

[snownado]

Unfortunately, rapidly intensifying hurricanes seem to be the new norm now.

There is still the chance (albeit small) that this could track over Mexico which would weaken it some, in addition to the potential dry air entrenchment as it approaches FL.