WINTER STORM/BLIZZARD: evening update 11-22-03

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good evening everyone. Some big contrasts in temperature today. A 1000 millibar low pressure system has formed over southeast Colorado. A stationary front extends from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle north and eastward to central Missouri. Big changes in temperature on either side of the boundary. For example, Chicago reached 55 today, St Louis 67, Springfield, Missouri 70 degrees, and Little Rock was 76 degrees for a new record high for this date. On the other hand high temps didn't get out of the 20s in Denver and never surpassed the freezing mark in Minnepolis St Paul. It reached 46 in Dvenport, Iowa this afternoon and it was the same around 46 degrees in Kansas City.

As for snowfall amounts so far, Denver has seen 1-3 inches in the city so far. However Littleton just southwest of Denver saw 5 inches of snow. Some places such as Estas Park and Fort Collins received 8-10 inches of snow so far. While the worse of the snow maybe over for Denver, snow showers are possible overnight and an additional light accumulation cannot be ruled out. Othe snow totals include some significant amounts. Four Corners, Wyoming received up to 16 inches of snow. Madison, Minnesota received about 10 inches and Rapid City, SD seen close to a foot of snow so far. St Cloud,Minnesota has seen a few inches of snow so far. However snow in Minnesota and surrounding areas is expected to only pick up in intensity overnight tonight into Sunday as well.

By Sunday, low pressure is expected to track northeast from the central plains up into the western Great Lakes. On the northwest side of that upper low, snow is expected to be heavy at times from Grand Island, Nebraska, northeastward to Omaha, Minnepolis, Minnesota and Duluth, Minnesota also. Storm totals look to range from 5-10 inches in Omaha to 8-14 inches in Minnepolis to 10-20 inches in Duluth. Note that some places in Minnesotas arrowhead and the UP of Michigan could see up to 2 feet of snowfall in isolated spots due to the lake enhancements courtesy of Lake Superior. Blizzard conditions are a given in these areas. The combination of the accumulating snow and the strong gusty winds will cause blowing and drifting snow reducing visibility to near zero at times. Blizzard conditions are expected in these areas through Sunday night. Snow drifts could easily be 3-5 feet high in some spots. A dangerous day for travelling in the midwestern US from Omaha up through the Minnepolis area. This first significant snowfall of the season will be significant with the potential of a full fledged blizzard.

Stay tuned for further updates on this storm system. Another update will follow later this evening.

Jim

[Colin]

Excellent analysis, Thank you Jim.