ATL: MILTON - Advisories

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1842567588448174346

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.

The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has
strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 1225 PM CDT...1725 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for
portions of Florida on Sunday.



Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Scatterometer data around midday confirmed that the circulation of
the depression was well-defined, and it also revealed peak winds of
35 kt. Based on that data, the depression was upgraded to Tropical
Storm Milton a few hours ago. The scatterometer data showed that
the center was embedded within the area of cold cloud tops, but the
area of tropical-storm-force winds was small. The overall structure
has not changed much since that time, and the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory.

Given that the system is still in its development stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 020/3 kt. Milton is not expected to
move much through tonight, but it should begin to move eastward to
east-northeastward on Sunday as a shortwave trough drops southward
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. On Monday, Milton should begin
to track a little faster toward the east or east-northeast as it
moves ahead of another mid-latitude trough approaching the
southeastern United States. This trough is expected to cause Milton
to further accelerate northeastward by Tuesday night with the center
approaching the west coast of Florida. The overall track guidance
envelope has nudged northward this cycle and it should also be noted
that there remains large along-track or timing differences in the
various dynamical models. The updated official forecast is slightly
north of the previous track and is a little slower to be in better
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Users are
again reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

Milton is within favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for
strengthening. The scatterometer data indicated that the radius of
maximum was around 20 n mi, and with the expected low vertical wind
shear conditions, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely
during the next few days. The official intensity forecasts calls
for Milton to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, and a major
hurricane by 72 hours. The regional hurricane models continue to
be quite aggressive in intensifying Milton. For now, the NHC
intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids, but
upward adjustments could be required if the dynamical hurricane
models continue their trends. Regardless of the exact details of
the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple
life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun



Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Milton appears to be slowly organizing. The storm has a central
dense overcast pattern with deep convection persisting near and to
the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates
range from 30 to 50 kt, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is nudged upward to 40 kt. Milton is a small storm at the
moment, with its estimated tropical-storm-force winds extending only
about 30 n mi from the center.

The storm is moving slowly northeastward at 4 kt as it remains
embedded in weak steering currents. However, a shortwave trough is
expected to push southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This
trough and a reinforcing one should cause Milton to turn eastward on
Sunday, and move progressively faster to the east and then northeast
across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida during the next 3 to 4 days.
The guidance is in fair agreement, but there is some spread in
both direction and timing. Overall, the models have trended slower
this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that
direction. This prediction is near the middle of the guidance
envelope and close to the typically best-performing consensus aids.
It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is
around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the
exact track.

Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as
it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a
moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear
environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will
the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity
models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the
global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models
will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of next week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.

Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late Sunday for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting
better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger
and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle.
Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and
based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity
is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
enroute to investigate Milton.

Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt.
Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the
northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward
during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over
the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward
toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the
track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario,
there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it
is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will
get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn
eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The
new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track
and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that
the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles.
Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track.

The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a
small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very
rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable
environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and
dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a
frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests
the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at
some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance
continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak
intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to
category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts
Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while
other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows
Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is
below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the
storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start
extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition
completed by 120 h.

Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a
powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting
portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week.
Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen
to local officials.


Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as
early as late today for portions of Florida.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS A STRONGER MILTON...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the north
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cabo Catoche and a
Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida tonight or early Monday.



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very
deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to
appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the
central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80
minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since
that time, satellite images continue to show further organization,
and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.

Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This
evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and
then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the
Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The
NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern
coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the
forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on
the exact track.

The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to
not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early
Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice
given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through
Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from
1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.

Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.

Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of
days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in
60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the
coastline.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River,
including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from
Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor
and Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast
west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee
to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the
Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with
cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small
ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have
increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial
intensity is raised to 85 kt.

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with
damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous
forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track
forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds
are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan,
and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion.
The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico
to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun
southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased
to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula.

No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after
36 hours.

This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES




Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records).

The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt.
Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward
soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as
the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force
winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new
mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward
at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left
of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted
to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest
GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is
closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which
appear to be too far south.

Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today
with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow,
its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement
cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken
but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a
much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air
entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical
transition, which should be complete by 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening
storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should
follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to
do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major
river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Corrected for location/distances in the summary section

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very
strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more
information.

The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed
later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models.
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the
model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD
LOW...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 89.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the
minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897
mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in
the Atlantic basin hurricane record. Subsequent center penetrations
by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures. Also,
flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some
decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt.
The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported
by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially
from the center. Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely
dangerous Category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt. Milton should continue
to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
and early Tuesday. Then, the flow on the eastern side of a
mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to
northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and
Wednesday. This motion should take the system across the Florida
peninsula on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, Milton is
expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic
waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical
characteristics. The official track forecast is close to, but a
little faster than, the model consensus. This is also very similar
to the previous NHC forecast. As noted earlier, the track is closer
to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which
appear to be too far south.

So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over
very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be
governed more by inner-core fluctuations. However the SHIPS
diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear
within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly
upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore a
decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western
coast of the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of the peak intensity,
the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of
the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or
two. The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at
landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline
and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the
orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton
has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on
record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday.
This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and
areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland
flooding combine to increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.8N 89.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch