ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

I wonder, as Milton crosses into the Loop Current the next day, will intense shear knock it down, or will the hurricane be so intense that shear will have a negligible impact on it? This is due to CIMSS showing that there's over 40 knots of shear for the Northern Gulf.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye continues to warm, this is insane

[Highteeld]

Looks like the Air Force will do another pass......... eye getting much warmer on satellite

[GCANE]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

[jlauderdal]

Very bit of small consolation is that the Predecessor Rain Event over Florida hasn't quite panned out as predicted. Yesterday was gloomy but the rain was light (I only picked up 0.27" at my house) and it doesn't look much like raining around here anytime soon with the sun out. I'm sure some areas have had more but overall it hasn't been as bad as predicted.

Although with a Cat 5 on the way it may not matter much at all.

Maybe not in your area, I have had 2+ inches of rain 4 days in a row including today.

[weeniepatrol]

Sure, why not

[jhpigott]

We've had 6+ inches of rain at PBI since last Friday, with probably at least that much more coming before Milton blows through to our north. Other than some potential TS conditions, looks like flooding will be the main concern down here in the SE metro area . . . for now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the Air Force will do another pass......... eye getting much warmer on satellite

I would expect pressure still dropping. The eye temperature differential is getting insane how much warmth is getting sucked up.

[jlauderdal]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

[kevin]

Milton's imagery looks on par with the most intense TCs in the Atlantic basin right now. Unreal storm.

[Gums]

Salute!

Milton sure reminds me of Camille - a large tornado.

Had two friends go thru the storm at ground zero and one flew choppers to help the recovery soon as wind got doen below 70 or 80 mph. Both were military and at the time USAF did not free folks to evacuate as easily as today.

On the plus side, if any, is if Milton stays small the surge will not extend as far as storms like Katrina. The sea floor is also a lot different than at Waveland and Biloxi.

God be with you if you cannot leave Sarasota, Ft Meyer, Venice, et all.

Gums sends...

[jasons2k]

I can't believe NHC didn't update that surge graphic to show 12-18 ft into Tampa Bay. It'll be about 12ft on the coast, but much higher into the Bay if it tracks across the northern part of TB.

I don’t get it either. But I have convinced everyone I know down there in a surge zone to evacuate.

[Teban54]

Literally in the blink of the eye:



Also, that's an unreal sequence of center fixes.

[ElectricStorm]

AF plane not done yet!

[Teban54]

Salute!

Milton sure reminds me of Camille - a large tornado.

Had two friends go thru the storm at ground zero and one flew choppers to help the recovery soon as wind got doen below 70 or 80 mph. Both were military and at the time USAF did not free folks to evacuate as easily as today.

On the plus side, if any, is if Milton stays small the surge will not extend as far as storms like Katrina. The sea floor is also a lot different than at Waveland and Biloxi.

God be with you if you cannot leave Sarasota, Ft Meyer, Venice, et all.

Gums sends...

Unfortunately, both NHC and hurricane models expect Milton's wind field to expand significantly at landfall compared to now.

[Highteeld]

Eye just warmed like 10 degrees C in the last 30 minutes

[tolakram]

[TallyTracker]

As close as Milton is now predicted to get to the Yucatan, I have to imagine some modest weakening should occur. Nearly half the circulation will be over land for close to 12 hours. I think some reintensification over the loop current is possible after the land interaction.

My UNOFFICIAL AMATEUR intensity forecast for the next 36 hours is:

3 hours = 175 mph
6 hours = 175 mph
12 hours = 160 mph
24 hours = 145 mph
36 hours = 150 mph

That brings us to Tuesday night when shear picks up and knocks it down a category. Surge is largely unimpacted by the wind changes and is looking catastrophic either way.

[Zonacane]

Just to put this out there, Tornado winds are not †he same as Hurricane winds. Primarily, tornadoes generate a lot of violent upward motion, hurricanes (thankfully) do not.

[Category5Kaiju]

Bruh, Milton's eye is getting clearer....yikes