ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

I was wrong earlier when I said it looks like AF is done. They're going in for at least one more pass.

[tolakram]

[aspen]

Bruh, Milton's eye is getting clearer....yikes

An insane pinhole stadium effect now. Pressure will probably be 919-915 mbar or less when recon gets back in there.

[GCANE]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

[Laser30033003]

I'm surprised that Pinellas is only evacuating A B C ....and not more ...

[GCANE]

I was wrong earlier when I said it looks like AF is done. They're going in for at least one more pass.

Who said Air Force guys don't pucker.

[kevin]

If Milton keeps up this appearance the next recon plane could seriously find a sub-900 mb pressure.

[GCANE]

10mb drop from last pass

[Beef Stew]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Hey GCANE, I can't state enough how much I, like many others, appreciate your contributions here on Storm2k. How is CAPE looking in the latter half of Milton's forecast once it gets into the eastern GOM and upon final approach to FL?

[jlauderdal]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Thanks

Im not sure how much more it can go but this will give it extra push.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Literally in the blink of the eye:

https://i.postimg.cc/1R2DVF5G/goes16-ir-meso2-1.gif

Also, that's an unreal sequence of center fixes.

https://i.postimg.cc/yNs5RdyP/image.png

Absolutely Jaw Dropping historical set there.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843320607204880532



One could argue that kirk was one too. but that is beyond the point. I suspect that Milton will soon be joining Katrina, Wilma, Rita and Mitch in intensity.

[StPeteMike]

I'm surprised that Pinellas is only evacuating A B C ....and not more ...

I thought the C was still voluntary, which is still crazy.

[Stormish]

I'm surprised that Pinellas is only evacuating A B C ....and not more ...

Used to live in Seminole too and still get the alerts. I was surprised as well. We were just outside of Zone E on high ground but would no way stay for this. I hope you are safe!

[GCANE]

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Hey GCANE, I can't state enough how much I, like many others, appreciate your contributions here on Storm2k. How is CAPE looking in the latter half of Milton's forecast once it gets into the eastern GOM and upon final approach to FL?

Much thanks Beef Stew
Milton will be ingesting high CAPE air when in the east GOM.
Also will be over the hottest part of the Loop Current for an extended period.
And, will be under a weak anticyclone.
Just about the worst-case scenario you can think of.

[eastcoastFL]

I have seen many times when a TC drops rapidly in pressure an earthquake occurs nearby.
Could see something in or around the GoM

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

I don't know what any of that means but it doesn't sound like a good thing.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Sure, why not

https://imgur.com/GHyTPaw

Is that big blow up to the upper right still a part of Milton? Looks so weird

[FrontRunner]

If the AF plane is going to do one final (?) pass in the next 20 minutes or so, how much of a gap are we looking at before the next plane does a pass? I saw someone mention 1:30 pm Eastern, but not sure if that's the next plane's departure time or their estimated first center fix.

[shiftenter]

Anything to report with space weather, it coincided well yesterday afternoon with the uptick we saw.

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

I don't know what any of that means but it doesn't sound like a good thing.

I don't think this is settled science. Some people are looking into the concept that solar flares / CMEs could affect cyclones. But there is no strong evidence to support this.

[psyclone]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?