ATL: MILTON - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
no real change in the new GFS...same basic landfall area and intensity
1 likes
Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4236
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Landfall at 06z was closer to Crystal River/Homosassa. 12z puts into Pinellas County. That's a pretty decent shift south. Impacts surge wise for Tampa Bay would be about the same though. Tampa's only hope is that this comes in south of the mouth of the bay.
1 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Close up look of latest 12z GFS, landfall near Pinellas/Pasco County line.
We can now say the 12z GFS, 06z Euro & 12z ICON have a fairly good consensus.

We can now say the 12z GFS, 06z Euro & 12z ICON have a fairly good consensus.

1 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
12z GFS also stays further south as it crosses Florida with an exit around Daytona now. Icon came north a little and GFS came south a little. UKMET, your move.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
CronkPSU wrote:no real change in the new GFS...same basic landfall area and intensity
Yeah, not for the recent runs. But two days ago when the shear and dry air cavalry were going to ride to the rescue at the last minute are over. The model is forecasting strengthening almost to landfall.
1 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Steve H. wrote:Right. Everyone sees Milton going further north than was previously thought. It could go either way. I’m curious as to why the track currently comes in near the Tampa area, but then nearly goes almost due east from there. Possibly because the trough presses down on it from the nnw?
I noticed that too Steve. That turn to the east or east-NE from the NE direction I think will be critical to the landfall location.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay metro the models are converging on this location. 

2 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2024 8:20 am
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Canadian, which landfall had been previously all the way down in Ft Myers moves up to Sarasota.
Shows it delayed into Thursday and making a dive into the coast due east.
Shows it delayed into Thursday and making a dive into the coast due east.
1 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes
1 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 245
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 10:31 am
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
LandoWill wrote:I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes
HAFS models have been closest to actual intensity. While they’ve both nudged south from their last couple runs I wouldn’t say they’ve been trending south in any real way. They’ve moved maybe 20 miles and now others are bringing consensus to where they are.
0 likes
Heather
- toad strangler
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4543
- Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
- Location: Earth
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
I looked at the last few GEFS ensemble runs and they have congregated further S and E since 0z
2 likes
My Weather Station
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLPORTS603
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
LandoWill wrote:I don't think it's out of line to say the hurricane models have been trending south over the last 24 hours. Which makes you wonder when they will stop or will they stick with similar outcomes
I don't see this south trend.
3 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
toad strangler wrote:I looked at the last few GEFS ensemble runs and they have congregated further S and E since 0z
They also show that due east motion once landfall is made. Most members go due east after landfall
1 likes
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5044
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
HAFS-B has 165kts by 21z
1 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
- eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
Zonacane wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:HAFS-B has 165kts by 21z
And a pressure of 897
Which for the first time ever for me at least I don't think it's out of the question. Normally I see a sub 900 run laugh and toss it away. Now we have to take it seriously...unreal
9 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2024 8:20 am
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
UK model moves all the way up to Bradenton. Last run was down by Naples.
2 likes
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Landfall at 06z was closer to Crystal River/Homosassa. 12z puts into Pinellas County. That's a pretty decent shift south. Impacts surge wise for Tampa Bay would be about the same though. Tampa's only hope is that this comes in south of the mouth of the bay.
That's Pasco not Pinellas
0 likes
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2024 8:20 am
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.
3 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 245
- Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2016 10:31 am
Re: ATL: MILTON - Models
TampaWxLurker wrote:HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.
Right into Clearwater.
1 likes
Heather
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests