ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

It was never expected to make landfall on Florida at/near peak intensity. However I suspect starting from a higher peak; the same amount of weakening from whatever increase in shear/dry air happens will lead to it still coming in stronger.

[CrazyC83]

I think a case could be argued for 175 mph based on undersampling and rate of intensification, but without hard FL data to justify that, I don't think the NHC will pull the trigger, especially considering the lack of weight that seems to be given to SFMR presently. I think we'll see 165 at the update instead.

The earlier 158 kt FL winds would provide a hint as well, combined with the deepening since, that I would go with 150 kt for the current intensity. I'd throw out the SFMR since those are probably too high.

[ROCK]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

Yeah. But the problem is that it’s going to pick up a Cat 5 dome of water that’s going to be moving with it until landfall even if it was to weaken to a 2 or 3. Much smaller storm now but think Katrina on the MS Gulf Coast. It hit as a 3 I think but the water was already part of it.

Ike comes to mind...Cat 2 with a Cat 4 surge.

[GCANE]

Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye

[Shawee]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

Yeah. But the problem is that it’s going to pick up a Cat 5 dome of water that’s going to be moving with it until landfall even if it was to weaken to a 2 or 3. Much smaller storm now but think Katrina on the MS Gulf Coast. It hit as a 3 I think but the water was already part of it.

Excellent point Steve. K was still pushing that Cat 4/5 surge even though the wins dissipated abit. Please don't let your guard down.

[weeniepatrol]

Last VDM gave 912mb. A HISTORIC mission:

[chaser1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but that 154 FL/177 sfmr is in the NW quad, which, in a storm on a SE heading, would technically be expected to be the weakest quadrant, right??

Um, technically? I think here though it is harder to apply and adjust right front quadrant solely bases on motion considering the unchanged influence of N Hemi Corriolis effect

[Highteeld]

sfc pressure should be 911 mb based on vdm

[GCANE]

Severe turbulence in the NE and NW eyewalls

[ROCK]

Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye

Ha now that some real time obs right there!! never heard that before. I guess they are stuck inside the eye.

[CronkPSU]

Last VDM gave 912mb. A HISTORIC mission:

https://i.imgur.com/ajRuXEd.png

less southern motion...gonna miss yucatan

[Beef Stew]

If only recon could stay in Milton for the next few hours until the missions tonight. We might miss out on some jaw-dropping data.

[xironman]

I imagine NHC will go to "life-threatening" terminology this evening and urge those in the A & B zones to evacuate...

I have always liked the Katrina warning

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

[CrazyC83]

With that further drop, I'd be tempted to pull the trigger on an intensity of 155 kt. The next aircraft arrives by 21Z? I think by then we're looking at sub-900.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

really concered for communites like Moon Lake, Shady Hills and Land o lakes. Hundreds of thousands of Mobile homes out in these areas and rural roads. They are going to be completely obliterated. No help will come for weeks

[cheezyWXguy]

Last VDM gave 912mb. A HISTORIC mission:

https://i.imgur.com/ajRuXEd.png

911 actually, that dropsonde found 11kt winds with the 912mb pressure reading. Approaching Ivan/Dorian pressure now.

[GCANE]

I think there needs to be a new term.
Accelerated Intensification.

[TomballEd]

What is the reasoning for no contraflow? Is it because half the people will want to evac south? Is there a point south where contraflow would be initiated? Maybe I answered my own question?

I mentioned this a bit earlier but after 2017 Florida changed their emergency evacuation plans from using contraflow to using the shoulders as emergency lanes. I'm not sure on the reasoning for this, but my guess would be the logistical effort/time lost in activating a contraflow plan isn't worth the added efficiency. Emergency shoulder use provides 2/3 of the lanes and requires much less to activate. Not using contraflow also allows utilities and emergency resources to position themselves for rapid response easier.

Using the shoulders has it's own set of problems, though. During the Rita evac, the shoulders were full of overheated and otherwise broken down or out of fuel cars. Damned if you do and damned if you don't, I suppose.

The 24 hour drives to San Antonio during the Rita evacs are why we have contraflow now and why people in well built homes away from the coast are urged to stay put. 'Hide from the Wind, Flee from the Sea'.

[bohai]

Folks, please keep in mind, weakening from a Cat 5 to a CAT 3 is not a cake walk or a walk in the park in comparative terms and should not be taken lightly. I remember when Frederick hit mobile I think in 79. We had tropical storm winds inland in Tuscaloosa 200 miles away. Mobile had 125 mph winds and was devastated. Friends said they would never stay again. Even if you stay and survive, you may be trapped by downed trees, powerlines, washed out and impassable roads/bridges, flooding etc. You may be without power for weeks. Even if you have a natural gas generator, the NG lines leading to your home may be inoperable. Stay safe.

Here is the SaffirSimpson definition of a Category 3 hurricane: Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr). Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. Unnamed hurricanes of 1909, 1910, 1929, 1933, 1945, and 1949 were all Category 3 storms when they struck South Florida, as were King of 1950, Betsy of 1965, Jeanne of 2004, and Irma of 2017.

[WaveBreaking]

While this is active, where would I find 1-min imagery? Might be an interesting verification between top-of-cloud speeds (through image analysis) and recon data.

(Or others could save it; that works, too.)

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/index.php This is a good place to go to for both storm floaters and mesoscale imagery.

RAMMB SLIDER (http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/) is much more customizable, with more products and multiple layers, but it can be a little buggy on mobile devices.