ATL: MILTON - Models

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fllawyer
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#801 Postby fllawyer » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:14 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.


Is this S of 00z and 18z runs?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#802 Postby xironman » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:14 pm

TampaWxLurker wrote:HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.

It then gets ripped by shear and dry air into landfall, not buying it.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#803 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:15 pm

HAFS-A appears to be South and East of the previous run at 48 hrs
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#804 Postby TampaWxLurker » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:17 pm

fllawyer wrote:
TampaWxLurker wrote:HAFS-B has 893mb 12z Wed, up to 963mb 06z Thur, just off the coast of southern Pinellas.


Is this S of 00z and 18z runs?


South and slower.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#805 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:17 pm

Image

12z GEFS Trend…
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#806 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:20 pm

12z Hafs-b Redington beach, a little right/south of 6z. Exits to Atlantic just south of New Smyrna Beach.

Image
Last edited by BobHarlem on Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#807 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:22 pm

12z UKMET into Tampa Bay and then does that hard East turn we have been seeing in many models across the peninsula directly afterwards
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#808 Postby aspen » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:25 pm

The 12z HAFS-A/B show an EWRC starting later this afternoon/early evening, but it rapidly completes (so more of an eyewall meld) and Milton explodes again tomorrow, reaching an even stronger peak.

HAFS-B gets Milton down to 897 mbar tonight before the EWRC kicks in, then down to 884 mbar tomorrow while north of the Yucatan Channel.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#809 Postby MrJames » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:30 pm

12z UKMET
Image

Prior 00z run
Image
Last edited by MrJames on Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#810 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:30 pm

12z HAFS-A goes up the bay. Slight right/south shift from 6z.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#811 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:34 pm

Son of Biscuit - These 12z Models are clobbering Tampa Bay.... wow
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#812 Postby chris_fit » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:42 pm

12z EURO -- Damn Tampa

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#813 Postby ronjon » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:44 pm

Models converging on Tampa Bay metro. One thing I think could alter this path is if the system were to slow down from current projections. Some of the models are showing an abrupt east or east-northeast turn right at landfall. If Milton slows down and doesn't reach the latitude of Tampa when this turn occurs, I could see the storm move east further south. Or alternatively, does the storm hit the west to east shear zone at Tampa's latitude which causes the turn?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#814 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:46 pm

12z Euro is identical to its earlier 06z run, Pinellas County.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#815 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:46 pm

Milton wants to do Busch Gardens and then head to Disney and Universal and then off to Daytona with these latest models...the full I4 experience
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#816 Postby skillz305 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:47 pm

The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#817 Postby MrJames » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:48 pm

12z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#818 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:48 pm

12Z Euro
Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#819 Postby KC7NEC » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:49 pm

Really starting to get consensus on an absolute worse case scenario for Tampa.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#820 Postby fsucory08 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:49 pm

skillz305 wrote:The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here


Especially because it's really a timing thing. If Milton slows down on approach, would not have a lot of warning of an abrupt right turn. Just another thing to watch for. Wonder if the NHC shifts the track after landfall.
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