ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
chaser1 wrote:GCANE wrote:Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye
WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture
Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall
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- StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
I’ll have to save the site once I find it, but can someone let me know what the forecasted shear is for around Wednesday?
I know a couple days ago it was close to 50kts, but I saw this morning that the shear depicted for Wednesday was closer to 30kts. Know that’s still a lot, but I am hoping for a miracle that this storm gets the shear and dry air as forecasted. Just hate seeing Milton outperform and don’t want to see him outperform 2 hours or so before landfall.
I know a couple days ago it was close to 50kts, but I saw this morning that the shear depicted for Wednesday was closer to 30kts. Know that’s still a lot, but I am hoping for a miracle that this storm gets the shear and dry air as forecasted. Just hate seeing Milton outperform and don’t want to see him outperform 2 hours or so before landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
I'm praying for Tampa. I've been reaching out to everyone I know there from my USF days, telling them Cat 5 surge is on the way, Tampa will be unrecognizable, and to get out now.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
aspen wrote:FLpanhandle91 wrote:That recon about to take off is NOAA'S G-IV upper-level bird (Gonzo). NOAA 42 (Kermit) doesn't take off until 1500CDT.
So that’s roughly 4pm EST, and then it probably won’t get to the eye for another 2 hours. That’s a long wait for a system like this…fingers crossed it catches Milton’s peak.
If Milton hasn’t started its modeled EWRC/eyewall meld by then, I think the odds of Kermit finding a sub-900 system are very high. Maybe even sub-890.
POD doesn't show first fixes for NOAA or AF flights until ~ 7:30-8:00 PM EDT. Good news is starting tomorrow afternoon they are switching to three-hourly fixes so we should have almost continuous AF recon plus the NOAA flights.
Last edited by craptacular on Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
sicktght311 wrote:chaser1 wrote:GCANE wrote:Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye
WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture
Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall
Assuming they are seabirds, many can stay aloft up to a year. All can follow the eye for a few days. So hopefully most of them make it.
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- WaveBreaking
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph


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I am NOT a professional meteorologist, so take all of my posts with a grain of salt. My opinions are mine and mine alone.
- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.
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- HurricaneBrain
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
Maybe one day we can tag them with some sort of device to get up to the minute readings and sampling

Steve wrote:sicktght311 wrote:chaser1 wrote:
WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture
Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall
Assuming they are seabirds, many can stay aloft up to a year. All can follow the eye for a few days. So hopefully most of them make it.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
Wow!! The gravity waves!!!


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Hurricane Experience: Charley 2004, Frances 2004, Jeanne 2004, Matthew 2016, Irma 2017, Dorian 2019, Ian 2022, Nicole 2022, Helene 2024, Milton 2024
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
people in rural mobile home areas are refusing to leave everywhere i look on facebook
This is gonna be a catastrophe
This is gonna be a catastrophe
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
ConvergenceZone wrote:A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.
The eye is forecast to landfall Wednesday night. By Thursday morning it will be leaving the east coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
Looking for some advice for those with more experience.
I live in Wesley Chapel about 10 miles north of Tampa and 20 miles from the water. Home built in 2008, 2 story home. No hurricane windows, standard mass built home. Flooding should be no issue here. At what point should the wind intensity make me evacuate? I figure I need to decide in next 5 hours or so.
I live in Wesley Chapel about 10 miles north of Tampa and 20 miles from the water. Home built in 2008, 2 story home. No hurricane windows, standard mass built home. Flooding should be no issue here. At what point should the wind intensity make me evacuate? I figure I need to decide in next 5 hours or so.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
ConvergenceZone wrote:A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.
Models are trending to around 11pm Wed to 4am Thu. Hard to be precise this far out. Definitely slower movement.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home
What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds
There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.
They would be obliterated.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
Next two missions will depart between 4 PM NOAA and 5 PM Air Force.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph
CrazyC83 wrote:With that further drop, I'd be tempted to pull the trigger on an intensity of 155 kt. The next aircraft arrives by 21Z? I think by then we're looking at sub-900.
Just mind-numbing. I'm just thinking of all of the potential broken historical records such as-
1) fastest or deepest intensification within a 12 or 24 hr period
2) shortest initial lifespan in terms of time and distance traveled to go from TD to Cat 5 (or potentially sub <900 mb)
3) westernmost Cat 5 to develop in the Atlantic basin
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