ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1901 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:56 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1902 Postby sicktght311 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:57 pm

chaser1 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye


WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture

Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1903 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:57 pm

I’ll have to save the site once I find it, but can someone let me know what the forecasted shear is for around Wednesday?

I know a couple days ago it was close to 50kts, but I saw this morning that the shear depicted for Wednesday was closer to 30kts. Know that’s still a lot, but I am hoping for a miracle that this storm gets the shear and dry air as forecasted. Just hate seeing Milton outperform and don’t want to see him outperform 2 hours or so before landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1904 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:59 pm

I'm praying for Tampa. I've been reaching out to everyone I know there from my USF days, telling them Cat 5 surge is on the way, Tampa will be unrecognizable, and to get out now.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1905 Postby craptacular » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:59 pm

aspen wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:That recon about to take off is NOAA'S G-IV upper-level bird (Gonzo). NOAA 42 (Kermit) doesn't take off until 1500CDT.

So that’s roughly 4pm EST, and then it probably won’t get to the eye for another 2 hours. That’s a long wait for a system like this…fingers crossed it catches Milton’s peak.

If Milton hasn’t started its modeled EWRC/eyewall meld by then, I think the odds of Kermit finding a sub-900 system are very high. Maybe even sub-890.


POD doesn't show first fixes for NOAA or AF flights until ~ 7:30-8:00 PM EDT. Good news is starting tomorrow afternoon they are switching to three-hourly fixes so we should have almost continuous AF recon plus the NOAA flights.
Last edited by craptacular on Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1906 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:59 pm

sicktght311 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye


WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture

Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall


Assuming they are seabirds, many can stay aloft up to a year. All can follow the eye for a few days. So hopefully most of them make it.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1907 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 07, 2024 12:59 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1908 Postby Teban54 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:00 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1909 Postby WaveBreaking » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:02 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1910 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:02 pm

A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1911 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:02 pm

Maybe one day we can tag them with some sort of device to get up to the minute readings and sampling :D
Steve wrote:
sicktght311 wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture

Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall


Assuming they are seabirds, many can stay aloft up to a year. All can follow the eye for a few days. So hopefully most of them make it.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1912 Postby sicktght311 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:04 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1913 Postby Soluna16 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:05 pm



Wow!! The gravity waves!!! :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1914 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:06 pm

people in rural mobile home areas are refusing to leave everywhere i look on facebook

This is gonna be a catastrophe
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1915 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:06 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.


The eye is forecast to landfall Wednesday night. By Thursday morning it will be leaving the east coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1916 Postby ahoyle » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:07 pm

Looking for some advice for those with more experience.

I live in Wesley Chapel about 10 miles north of Tampa and 20 miles from the water. Home built in 2008, 2 story home. No hurricane windows, standard mass built home. Flooding should be no issue here. At what point should the wind intensity make me evacuate? I figure I need to decide in next 5 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1917 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:08 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.


Models are trending to around 11pm Wed to 4am Thu. Hard to be precise this far out. Definitely slower movement.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1918 Postby Blinhart » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:09 pm

BIFF_THE_UNRULY wrote:Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.


They would be obliterated.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1919 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:10 pm

Next two missions will depart between 4 PM NOAA and 5 PM Air Force.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion Update=175 mph

#1920 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 1:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:With that further drop, I'd be tempted to pull the trigger on an intensity of 155 kt. The next aircraft arrives by 21Z? I think by then we're looking at sub-900.


Just mind-numbing. I'm just thinking of all of the potential broken historical records such as-
1) fastest or deepest intensification within a 12 or 24 hr period
2) shortest initial lifespan in terms of time and distance traveled to go from TD to Cat 5 (or potentially sub <900 mb)
3) westernmost Cat 5 to develop in the Atlantic basin
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