ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

They would be obliterated.

i cant get through to them. This is gonna be horrible and they are just gonna learn the hard way

[ConvergenceZone]

A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.

The eye is forecast to landfall Wednesday night. By Thursday morning it will be leaving the east coast of Florida

Okay thanks. Not sure why the weather channel was showing the eye still off the coast on Thursday Morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

A bit confused here, the tropical update over on https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... ane-milton
shows a landfall on Wednesday, but the weather channel this morning was showing a Thursday Morning landfall. Which one is it? I'm confused lol.

Models are trending to around 11pm Wed to 4am Thu. Hard to be precise this far out. Definitely slower movement.

okay thanks wxman! Maybe they were just showing what the models were showing. I couldn't stick around to watch as I had to get on the road.

[galaxy401]

https://i.imgur.com/Vx3ZgC6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ywFlenq.gif

Could just be an illusion or a wobble but am I seeing a northward bump in those last frames?

[blueskies]

Will the Plant City/Lakeland area be sufficiently far to evacuate? Have an option closer to Orlando, but not sure any safer or worth the extra driving.

I would appreciate advice on best routes, times for driving or better evacuation options from south Pinellas.

Would it make sense to go south over sunshine bridge then somehow work our way north and east?

Than you

[Steve]

Looking for some advice for those with more experience.

I live in Wesley Chapel about 10 miles north of Tampa and 20 miles from the water. Home built in 2008, 2 story home. No hurricane windows, standard mass built home. Flooding should be no issue here. At what point should the wind intensity make me evacuate? I figure I need to decide in next 5 hours or so.

I don't know what architectural/structural enhancements you have as far as roof ties to the structure. But since it was built in 2008, you have a lot more mandated/code construction benefits than say were in Homestead in 1992 for Andrew. The biggest unknown is since you guys haven't really experienced a major in some time, nobody really knows for sure what's going to hold up and what's not except based whatever the building codes were when it was built and what the ratings are for the roof, windows, etc. In any event, if your NWS has you in 100mph sustained, you're getting to coin flip. If your home is in a typical neighborhood as opposed to being in a more rural area, assess the threat of falling trees/limbs, etc. If you have small kids or anyone with you that has any special needs, a shelter is probably appropriate. Best to you.

[SohCahToa]

Looking for some advice for those with more experience.

I live in Wesley Chapel about 10 miles north of Tampa and 20 miles from the water. Home built in 2008, 2 story home. No hurricane windows, standard mass built home. Flooding should be no issue here. At what point should the wind intensity make me evacuate? I figure I need to decide in next 5 hours or so.

Before I type this I feel like I should warn I’m a complete moron, and if I’m not at threat to flood I’d typically stay regardless of strength. But…

Do you have a family? If so, I would’ve gotten them out of there hours ago. If not, I’d be prepared for a horrifyingly wild ride,l with as much food, water and gas as I couple possibly find. then be prepared to leave when that runs out. Even a hurricane at 60mph weaker than this could have power out for weeks. The days after Katrina passed over were some of the most miserable I could remember after riding it out in Slidell. Likely we were eventually able to move over to Baton Rouge for a few weeks until the real clean up began.

All that being said, I’d listen to local officials. They’ll have more info on potential impacts. Take care of your kids, take care of your significant other, then take care of yourself.

[drewschmaltz]

This has to be close to maximum potential. Loop current still in front of it? Every. single. model. run. watching the shear do it's thing. Continuing to hope it verifies. We've had too many false alarms in CFL.

Out of curiosity, any one have current wind / pressure vs model forecast? Is Milton inexplicably exceeding HAFS?

[al78]

I don't know what to say at this point. I know the Gulf water temperatures are well above average but I didn't anticipate such a rapid deepening to category 5. This reminds me of Otis without the forecast bust and with more time to warn and get people out of the potential landfall regions. If there is anything to be optimistic about, it is that Tampa is a small target and there is a fair chance it will take a track that will avoid funneling a big storm surge up the bay, and it is forecast to get at least partially shredded by wind shear on final approach to land so we won't see category five winds onshore, maybe even below category 3. These rapidly deepening storms seem to be happening more frequently these days and extreme rates of intensification are very hard if not impossible to predict.

[aspen]

Since we won’t get recon into Milton before the next full advisory, I think we could see the NHC go with 155 kt under the assumption Milton has continued its ERI, if it still has its T7.5 presentation by then. Not sure how much they’d drop the pressure, though. Maybe 5 mb to be safe.

[mpic]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

They would be obliterated.

i cant get through to them. This is gonna be horrible and they are just gonna learn the hard way

You can lead a horse to water comes to mind.

[jasons2k]

Hey all, been a long time follower and in Orlando. Lived 30 years in Tampa and have friends from Anna Maria, Apollo Beach, Tampa, St Pete and Tarpon Springs. Ex lives on Harbor Island and son just said he is driving down there tomorrow. None are leaving and it is crazy. This is the most intense storm heading this way that I have ever seen.

Thank you to everyone for your expertise. If information is power, this site is fantastic.

I have said it a few times and will say it again.

Anyone in a surge zone in that cone needs to evacuate, especially Pasco and south from there!!

And to add, anyone within 50 miles of the track in a mobile home should leave, no questions asked!!!

This is not a video game, folks, this is serious. Your life is in danger if you stay and emergency services will be unable to help you!!!

[zzzh]

AL, 14, 2024100718, , BEST, 0, 217N, 913W, 150, 909, HU,

[Kingarabian]

AL, 14, 2024100718, , BEST, 0, 217N, 913W, 150, 909, HU,

I would do 155kts next update.

[Category5Kaiju]

With a pressure of 911 mbar, Milton is officially 2024's most intense cyclone worldwide, beating Yagi and Krathon in the WPAC.

[Teban54]

I don't know what to say at this point. I know the Gulf water temperatures are well above average but I didn't anticipate such a rapid deepening to category 5. This reminds me of Otis without the forecast bust and with more time to warn and get people out of the potential landfall regions. If there is anything to be optimistic about, it is that Tampa is a small target and there is a fair chance it will take a track that will avoid funneling a big storm surge up the bay, and it is forecast to get at least partially shredded by wind shear on final approach to land so we won't see category five winds onshore, maybe even below category 3. These rapidly deepening storms seem to be happening more frequently these days and extreme rates of intensification are very hard if not impossible to predict.

While the forecasting since Advisory #1 and public preparation are obviously miles better than with Otis, if you look beyond a 2- or 3-day window, Milton is not a storm that models handled well. 4 days ago, it was expected to be a frontal low with close to zero chance of development within 48 hours.

While forecasting has advanced to the point where we can usually predict a monster far in advance, I have to think Milton was a huge exception. Even Michael, Idalia and Helene (all of which had the advance notice come rather late) were at least expected to be a mid-grade TS in that time frame.

[ConvergenceZone]

Someone shared this map yesterday and thank you! I've never seen it before. If you zoom in on it you can see the worst case scenarios regarding storm surge, based on the current forecast and it's constantly updated.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

[Cyclenall]

Consummately ludicrous developments today, many unique attributes with Milton . I had Wilma vibes to begin, then those faded yesterday only for Wilma-like intensification to procede anyways. It jumped 40 knots in 6 hr; it was still tech at 80 kt at 06z now its 150 kt but I think its closer to 160 currently. That's 70-80 kt increase in less than 12 hours!!! As someone years ago wrote on here, "The Carla cradle delivers another monster". I wasn't even aware of this TC existing Sat afternoon, now its bound to become one of the strongest in Atl history - sub 890mb is on the table folks. The rate is accelerating, I wonder if a 15mb drop in a hr is possible? I thought maybe at one point it did.

I was waiting for the NHC to use EI in its wording as I'd put that down once it reached CAT4 now they put down in the books "...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS..." - Can't say that's been given out much from the official agency! I don't know when the other time it was termed up was. Various historic advisories so far.

[Kingarabian]

We can get close to a T8.0 without CDG IF the eye warms further.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is the updated traffic map. Freeway congestion is starting to grow