ATL: MILTON - Models

[tolakram]

Euro wind predictions

[chris_fit]

12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/vNkhbef.gif

Soooo many wobbles on the approach, and it's not just the EURO showing this....

[ColdFusion]

12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/vNkhbef.gif

Soooo many wobbles on the approach, and it's not just the EURO showing this....

Bumping up against that frontal boundary...they tend to sway.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO -- Damn Tampa

https://i.imgur.com/Ggt6WtH.png

JMHO… Tropical systems moving NE along a trough usually don’t make hard E turns. A smoother NE track from the S GOM over @Cape Coral then ENE OTS seems more in line with climatology…

Not official info, just my amateur opinion…

[Stormlover70]

Fml in new port richey

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

the hard cut right is the frontal boundary i assume


Could that boundary save Tampa just in time?

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Fml in new port richey

Me too man. Hudson here. Its chaos here. There is still issues with Helene stuff.

No idea what i am gonna do. My house was built in 2001 so its more modern and i am in Flood Zone A, so no really an issue. Not in an evacuation zone either.

Not sure what i am doing really. Wife wants to go to Panama city, I kind of want to stay since i am nowhere near the coast but the pithlacoochie river is a quarter mile away tho

Really anagozing decision.

[CycloysisNegative]

the hard cut right is the frontal boundary i assume


Could that boundary save Tampa just in time?

That’s what I’ve been thinking the past 6hrs. Could that be the Charley like right hook? Not saying Port Charolette, but if that turn happens earlier, might save TB from the surge.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

the hard cut right is the frontal boundary i assume


Could that boundary save Tampa just in time?

That’s what I’ve been thinking the past 6hrs. Could that be the Charley like right hook? Not saying Port Charolette, but if that turn happens earlier, might save TB from the surge.

It might! We can hope for it

[MrJames]

18z track guidance


Tightened up a bit.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

18z track guidance
https://i.imgur.com/wLb8jUx.png

Tightened up a bit.

i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.

[HurricaneBelle]

18z track guidance
https://i.imgur.com/wLb8jUx.png

Tightened up a bit.

i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.

most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

18z track guidance
https://i.imgur.com/wLb8jUx.png

Tightened up a bit.

i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.

most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota

So... right into the mouth of the bay? In terms of surge that might actually be worse.

[chaser1]

The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here

Especially because it's really a timing thing. If Milton slows down on approach, would not have a lot of warning of an abrupt right turn. Just another thing to watch for. Wonder if the NHC shifts the track after landfall.

I believe any eastward motion would be the result of its forward motion being steered by the lower levels as a result of dry air entrainment (rather then caused by land itself). I think that will be better predicted as we get a little closer in. I could even see the storm potentially getting shunted southeast if the dropping trough were particularly flat (east/west oriented)

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.

most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota

So... right into the mouth of the bay? In terms of surge that might actually be worse.

yes.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS… Larger cluster over Cape Coral now


06z GEFS

Track smoothing out IMO…

[HurricaneBelle]

i cant see tampa bay underneath all those plots.

most of them are just south, over Bradenton/Sarasota

So... right into the mouth of the bay? In terms of surge that might actually be worse.

Bradenton and Sarasota are south of Tampa Bay (the body of water), the winds would be offshore over the bay as a result (but still Cat 3 or worse) but surge would be alleviated.

[Zarniwoop]

It appears that it will weaken significantly before landfall. Would that be a correct prediction at the moment?

[StormPyrate]

It appears that it will weaken significantly before landfall. Would that be a correct prediction at the moment?

weaken but expand, and still will have cat 4 wave in front of it

[jlauderdal]

The direct cut east is kinda worrisome for the treasure coast here

Especially because it's really a timing thing. If Milton slows down on approach, would not have a lot of warning of an abrupt right turn. Just another thing to watch for. Wonder if the NHC shifts the track after landfall.

I believe any eastward motion would be the result of its forward motion being steered by the lower levels as a result of dry air entrainment (rather then caused by land itself). I think that will be better predicted as we get a little closer in. I could even see the storm potentially getting shunted southeast if the dropping trough were particularly flat (east/west oriented)

Interaction with the Yucatan could cause some easterly motion; when they get this intense and have friction with land, that can cause minor changes in direction over the short term which of course matter. Anything south of tampa would be ideal, sorry it has come to that but thats where we are at with this storm.