ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp is leveling off. But looks like some CDG starting to presist in the NE/E eye wall quad.

[CoastalDesign]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

[Tekken_Guy]

If the landfall is in Bradenton/Sarasota isn’t that relatively good news for Tampa? That would keep the worst of the storm surge south of Tampa.

[tropicwatch]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

You might mention they probably won't be able to get back to the place they are staying at after the storm.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Looking like Milton might be hinting at making that northeast turn a little early. If it continues that could be bad for Tampa.

This storm has been outdoing all expectations. Starting its ENE/NE motion early wouldn’t surprise me at this point.

[chaser1]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

Assuming no risk of flooding and if you can protect your windows and secure your garage or other entry doors, you should be fine to stay in a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane. Those old CBS built homes were built very sturdy. The experience may be nerve wracking and scary (especially if alone), but you should be safe. At minimum, find an inside room without windows or board up the window for a safe-room, where you can organize to wait out the storm. Under no circumstances would I stay if I believed Cat 5 winds were expected. Done that once - no need to repeat.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

They should go enjoy the fall foliage. A couple of crisp October evenings up north would be lovely.

[Sciencerocks]

[StormPyrate]

Advice to those who are thinking about leaving but not sure
The toughest decisions to make are easily solved by taking the hardest choice.
Usually the hardest one is the right one
I lost everything in Katrina.
And now live in Clearwater
We are leaving, it was the hardest choice

[TheFort2018]

I see no significant risk of flooding in Miami-Dade or Broward if away from the coast. 6-8" for inland areas may pose a temporary nuisance but not particularly threatening, as long as you're not driving around in it

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

We're in Fort Pierce. We're prepared to drive to Fort Lauderdale or Miami if the track shifts.

[FLpanhandle91]

It appears he's been heading 80 to 85 degrees ENE since crossing 91.5W

[wxman57]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

They would be obliterated.

If the storm tracks near Tampa Bay, then that area would have wind blowing offshore. Not nearly as high of a surge. Of course, if the track deviated north, then they could see 10-12 ft.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cdo may be starting to cool slightly again. Eye temp seems consistently warm.

[Michele B]

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

150.6 knots (~ 173.3 mph)
Category Five Hurricane

A good argument for why we need a Cat 6

[norva13x]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

Assuming no risk of flooding and if you can protect your windows and secure your garage or other entry doors, you should be fine to stay in a Cat 2 or 3 Hurricane. Those old CBS built homes were built very sturdy. The experience may be nerve wracking and scary (especially if alone), but you should be safe. At minimum, find an inside room without windows or board up the window for a safe-room, where you can organize to wait out the storm. Under no circumstances would I stay if I believed Cat 5 winds were expected. Done that once - no need to repeat.

We're on hill and thank God it should weaken especially before getting that far inland

[FLpanhandle91]

Est. Sfc. Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Est. Red. Factor

150.6 knots (~ 173.3 mph)
Category Five Hurricane

A good argument for why we need a Cat 6

laughs in Patricia

[wxman57]

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

We're in Fort Pierce. We're prepared to drive to Fort Lauderdale or Miami if the track shifts.

Certainly no surge threat there. You could see sustained TS wind, maybe 40-50 mph and gusts to hurricane strength. No reason to evacuate unless you have someone in your family who would be seriously impacted if the power goes out.

[CoastalDesign]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

You might mention they probably won't be able to get back to the place they are staying at after the storm.

I have, in addition to telling them that there is a good chance their mobile home will not make it, and they will be headed home at some point after the storm anyway. Emotional attachment objects can be risky.

[underthwx]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

No disrespect to storm chasers types....but yall are included....please sit this one out....authorities will have enough to deal with as it is...

[Zonacane]

https://i.imgur.com/kGxb4Lk.gif

Still intensifying