ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

https://i.imgur.com/kGxb4Lk.gif

Damn, those low level clouds around Milton are MOVING

[tropicwatch]

Some perspective on current movement (wobbe watching if you will)

https://tropicwatch.info/1007241756z.mp4

[hurricanes1234]

The amount of lightning in the eyewall is INSANE.

[bigfluffydogs]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

You might mention they probably won't be able to get back to the place they are staying at after the storm.

Another long term lurker and a construction lawyer by trade, so I share your concerns. I also have lived in Venice. My advice would be to get out now. It's going to be awful, they don't know what they are in for, and getting out if they change their mind afterwards may turn out to be near impossible.

[wxman57]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like Milton’s CDO is getting colder. That thing is still intensifying!!!

[wxman57]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

You might mention they probably won't be able to get back to the place they are staying at after the storm.

Another long term lurker and a construction lawyer by trade, so I share your concerns. I also have lived in Venice. My advice would be to get out now. It's going to be awful, they don't know what they are in for, and getting out if they change their mind afterwards may turn out to be near impossible.

They could be without power for 2-3 weeks. Sound like fun? Nope.

[TheFort2018]

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

We're in Fort Pierce. We're prepared to drive to Fort Lauderdale or Miami if the track shifts.

Certainly no surge threat there. You could see sustained TS wind, maybe 40-50 mph and gusts to hurricane strength. No reason to evacuate unless you have someone in your family who would be seriously impacted if the power goes out.

We have supplies but would only head south if the track shifts significantly.

[Chemmers]

The lighting around the eyewall is insane think it still ERI, last time I saw something like this was hurricane Patricia

[Michele B]

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

Four days ago, models stated that this would just be a weak frontal low...

I was going to bring this up.

It seems they knew exactly WHERE the storm was going, but not how strong it would be.

How is it there is no way to accurately forecast intensifying?

[chaser1]

I am a lurker on this site, but this one has me really concerned. I am a structural engineer and have done quite a bit of design work in Florida and I have also traveled to the state in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes. While my short visits are no comparison to the experience of living there, I understand somewhat. I say that to follow with this, I have an Aunt and Uncle that are snowbirds. They have already moved to the Gulf Coast, south of Sarasota. I am pleading with them to drive back to their permanent residence. My logic is as follows.

1. They are elderly. They do not need to be there potentially taking up the short supply of resources, without the ability to assist anyone.
2. They have booked a hotel a couple of miles inland, which in my opinion is not far enough from the coast. After the hurricane, that room may be needed for permanent residents and relief workers.
3. They have a home to go to, out of the way and safe. It will be an inconvenience to make the 12-hour drive north, but certainly better than trying to live on the central Gulf Coast after Wednesday.

My point of this post, if you are not a permanent resident, you need to get out of the way. Resources will be short.

They should go enjoy the fall foliage. A couple of crisp October evenings up north would be lovely.

All in all, I'd agree. The inconvenience in leaving would be far less stressful than the likely inconvenience from staying, especially if you consider NO a/c for a few days (or weeks). This point is further exacerbated by one's medical condition and/or advanced age. Unless someone were to enjoy some primitive survival experience, it's a no brainer. Why choose, no a/c or electric, many stores and restaurants closed indefinitely due to damage, lack of access to water, food, prescriptions, etc.?

[CrazyC83]

With no additional data but ADT still falling, I'd go with 155 kt and 905 mb. Obviously that is an uncertain estimate.

[Michele B]

 https://x.com/jonrunderwood/status/1843332610728317040

IIRC, there was a storm that made the flyers physically sick (and sharting themselves!)

I think it was Ian.

[Frank P]

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

Four days ago, models stated that this would just be a weak frontal low...

I was going to bring this up.

It seems they knew exactly WHERE the storm was going, but not how strong it would be.

How is it there is no way to accurately forecast intensifying?

Simple humankind is just not smart enough, maybe one day in the future many eons from now.. man has its limitations and weather forecasting is certainly one among many..

[dukeblue219]

It seems they knew exactly WHERE the storm was going, but not how strong it would be.

How is it there is no way to accurately forecast intensifying?

Not yet, especially at the early stages of cyclogenesis. There's too much chaos happening to reliably model it. Statistics based on macro conditions are about as good as we can do l.

[chaser1]

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

Four days ago, models stated that this would just be a weak frontal low...

I was going to bring this up.

It seems they knew exactly WHERE the storm was going, but not how strong it would be.

How is it there is no way to accurately forecast intensifying?

Exactly? NHC had no idea this hurricane would threaten Yucatan. Tampa? It hasn't hit there yet

[Chemmers]

Do we know when the next recon is heading out

[Michele B]

It''s official. 911mb and 175mph.

There is no word, except "insane"


I've gone through a lot of hurricanes, but this is beyond anything I've ever experienced.

[kevin]

If the eye doesn't collapse by the time recon arrives it'll be sub-900 mbar for sure. Probably already in the 900 - 910 range now. I think NHC will go with something around 905 - 910 mb for the next advisory.

[Sunnydays]

Do we know when the next recon is heading out

I believe someone said a couple hours from now. 5pm central? for AF planes anyway. Maybe NOAA an hour before? I think I what I read.