ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/kGxb4Lk.gif

Still intensifying

About what time frame will Milton start to encounter shear?.....

[AutoPenalti]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

889?? No, I'd say we bottom out to 900 for the day.

[cheezyWXguy]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

It’s hard to fathom that would be the case, and yet, it does seem to be within the realm of possibility.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I hope the folks from Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee County wig out right now. If the officials are telling you to go, GO!!!!

Don’t be arrogant thinking you’ll be able to ride these things out. Hurricanes like this have a pretty good track record of handing out plenty of Darwin Awards. Ike did the same thing to a lot of people when I was a pre-teen. Folks that heard it would be a “large Category 2 with 17 feet of storm surge” only heard the “Category 2”. A lot of people in Bolivar and Galveston lost their lives this way. So heed the warnings in excess!!!

[WaveBreaking]

Do we know when the next recon is heading out

I think the next mission is scheduled to start in less than 4 minutes from now.

[TallyTracker]

Approximately what time is the next recon pass? I want to know when to have my face plastered to my screen.

[Travorum]

Do we know when the next recon is heading out

I believe someone said a couple hours from now. 5pm central? for AF planes anyway. Maybe NOAA an hour before? I think I what I read.

NOAA42 (Kermit) is taxiing to the runway right now.

[ROCK]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

885 mb IF no ERC....hurry up RECON.

[craptacular]

First center fixes likely in the 7:30 - 8:00 PM EDT range.

[Kazmit]

As others have been saying the turn north has begun- no Yucatan landfall this time. Milton is already north of forecast track. The further north it goes, the greater chance Tampa has for devastating surge.

[chaser1]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Next recon taking off.

[Michele B]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

I'm not an expert, but I will tell you what I know:

Just like conventional homes, building codes keep strengthening, based on studies of what damage hurricane winds do to homes. So, when the conventional building codes are changed, so are the codes for mobile homes. I believe the last time the building codes for mobile homes was changed was after Charley in 2004. Any home built before then is not as sturdy as those built after 2004.

Hope this helps!

[johngaltfla]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wx, I'm inland in South Sarasota, in a solid structure. I figure we'll see similar to Ian/Irma with sustained 120 mph with maybe gusts 140-145 if the path remains consistent. My question is will there be any chance of the shear taking this storm down further before landfall because most people in the area are seeing the 175 mph information and losing their minds.

BTW, long time fan of your reasoned and well thought out posts as our pro-mets on this board are the best. It makes planning and prepping a lot easier for all of these storms. Thank you in advance.

[kevin]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

If the eyewall collapses or an EWRC starts it may already be peaking now (operationally at least). If it holds I'll guess 887 mb.

[johngaltfla]

I'm expecting weakening prior to landfall. Hurricane force sustained wind (75-85 mph) may extend inland just past Tampa. Wind gusts 120-140 mph possible. The most vulnerable part of most homes is the garage door, particularly double-wide doors. During Ike, I set our big garbage bin up against the inside of the door and backed my car into it (with a blanket on it) to prevent the door from giving way. If you can protect such wind infiltration into your home, you can save the roof and home. If you're anywhere near Tampa and below 20 ft of elevation, get out. Tampa has never been hit directly by a Cat 3 hurricane.

Wow? You are not forecasting any sustained winds for Orange and Seminole counties (Orlando area) greater then 50-60mph?

My input, and I'm not a forecaster or a meteorologist.

The big risk will be tornadoes in your area as the storm starts to move faster to the E/ENE and the air destabilizes further.

If anyone has anything to add to this, please do.

[WaveBreaking]

[FLpanhandle91]

Kermit should be airborne any minute.

[ConvergenceZone]

Any prediction on lowest pressure by the 11:00pm advisory tonight? I'll go with 889 mb

If the eyewall collapses or an EWRC starts it may already be peaking now (operationally at least). If it holds I'll guess 887 mb.

Yea they mentioned that on the weather channel, that the strength is probably close to peaking right now, or maybe already has, but minor fluctuations can be expected in intensity over the next 24 hours before it starts to slowly begin the weakening phase, which should be slow at first.