ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

I know it's sickening how they spread misinformation, not very responsible. But it's all about the views.

I'm sorry but this is not misinformation. There is a category 5 hurricane -a strong one at that - headed for Florida's West Coast. The media is reporting facts as they exist.

It's a Cat 5 until and unless it weakens, so no inaccuracy there.

[Zonacane]

https://i.imgur.com/rKqOjc6.png
Insane

The craziest eyewall since Dorian, also a complete lack of an outer eyewall forming.

[kronotsky]

No evidence of EWR yet that I can see...

[JSDS]

I hope the folks from Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, and Lee County wig out right now. If the officials are telling you to go, GO!!!!

Don’t be arrogant thinking you’ll be able to ride these things out. Hurricanes like this have a pretty good track record of handing out plenty of Darwin Awards. Ike did the same thing to a lot of people when I was a pre-teen. Folks that heard it would be a “large Category 2 with 17 feet of storm surge” only heard the “Category 2”. A lot of people in Bolivar and Galveston lost their lives this way. So heed the warnings in excess!!!

I agree! I was in Galveston County at the time and left for a friend's about 50 miles north. It was bad enough there and I was so glad that I didn't put myself through the emotional pain of staying put in a mobile home that only took roof damage.

If I remember correctly, many people on the Boliver were caught off guard by how far ahead of the actual storm that the surge arrived. They thought they had more time, but they were trapped by water rising far sooner than they thought it would. We watched it play out from the Baton Rouge area, as my daughter and son in law were here for what they thought would be a typical 2 day evacuation from Galveston. It turned into a 6 week evacuation and no house to go back to. PLEASE don’t try to ride it out. It’s not worth it.

[Buck]

I don’t see contra flow on I75, watching WC. Are any planned? Anywhere?

I think someone stated earlier that they stopped doing that in 2017.

[Rail Dawg]

The NHC didn't tell us this thing would ramp to a Cat 5+ and now they are telling us it will be weaker at landfall?

Am still in the camp that these guys can nail track like nobody's business but with intensity they are still way behind.

Not their fault. The whole butterfly flapping its wings creating a thunderstorm thing. We have the best technology in the world working weather issues and we still are just guessing lots of times.

Hurricanes do their own thing.

Chuck

[aspen]

Also in agreement an ERC is underway. Eye is cooling and shrinking

I’m not sure now because the microwave pass from an hour ago (see zzzh’s post) shows no outer eyewall, just the intense main eyewall and one band. So maybe it’s a meld that’s too small for the imagery to resolve? I did notice some slight shrinking, though.

[cheezyWXguy]

Also in agreement an ERC is underway. Eye is cooling and shrinking

Shrinking yes, cooling is to be debated. The eye is so small, and contracting, to the point that it’s hard to capture it in more than just a couple of pixels. Additionally, the satellite is not directly overhead, but instead at an angle. This results in only seeing part of the eye at the surface which can result in artificially low eye temp depictions. I recall similar issues with Wilma at its peak

[Pasmorade]

Could this genuinely not undergo an EWRC for the rest of the day?

[Travorum]

[Highteeld]

Also in agreement an ERC is underway. Eye is cooling and shrinking

I’m not sure now because the microwave pass from an hour ago (see zzzh’s post) shows no outer eyewall, just the intense main eyewall and one band. So maybe it’s a meld that’s too small for the imagery to resolve? I did notice some slight shrinking, though.

Possibly. Makes the next AF Pass more interesting, that's for sure.

[Zonacane]

Also in agreement an ERC is underway. Eye is cooling and shrinking

I’m not sure now because the microwave pass from an hour ago (see zzzh’s post) shows no outer eyewall, just the intense main eyewall and one band. So maybe it’s a meld that’s too small for the imagery to resolve? I did notice some slight shrinking, though.

The eye contracting is normal in a rapidly intensifying storm. Between the lightning activity and the eye contracting Milton is still intensifying. 

[Pasmorade]

180 mph and 905 mb...

[Beef Stew]

This current presentation is probably very similar to what the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane would’ve looked like. Small, compact, and with an extremely tight RMW and pressure gradient. Milton very well could’ve been (and may still be) a sub 900 mb, 185+ mph system. Not to detract from the disaster that this storm can impart, but from a meteorological perspective, take a minute to admire the satellite presentation of this anomalous storm- we may not see something like it in the Atlantic again for a long time.

[Zonacane]

Also in agreement an ERC is underway. Eye is cooling and shrinking

Shrinking yes, cooling is to be debated. The eye is so small, and contracting, to the point that it’s hard to capture it in more than just a couple of pixels. Additionally, the satellite is not directly overhead, but instead at an angle. This results in only seeing part of the eye at the surface which can result in artificially low eye temp depictions. I recall similar issues with Wilma at its peak

Patricia as well

[Buck]

Could this genuinely not undergo an EWRC for the rest of the day?

Correct. Not all storms are built the same. And Milton is small. He doesn’t have an outer eyewall to replace the inner eyewall with (yet). I think if I remember right, Irma was basically immune to EWRCs, or at least she didn’t really weaken as a result of any.

[aspen]

180 mph and 905 mbar.

Welcome back Hurricane Mitch.

[wx98]

180 mph, 905 mbar at 21z. We’ll see what the plane finds. Could be 890s…

[NC George]

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

Also turns out every single hurricane that struck land this year created a F2 or stronger.

Just N of my location got a fairly substantial tornado from Helene, destroyed a few businesses. I'm in EASTERN NC.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please. Opinions about the media or opinions about opinions about the media is NOT on topic. Thanks!