ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BlowHard]

Difference being that I (nor anyone I know here in Florida) will not take any added precautions, preparations, or purchase items in advance of Tornado Watches. Meaning, no structural fortification or additional pruning. A brief F-0 tornado event is entirely possible and many have occured over the years but those odds are similar to the lottery.

After Hurricane Frances spawned a tornado over our house that hit ground down the road, I don' take tornado watches for granted. That train sound has stuck with me. Even TS Bonnie that year spawned a F2 in Jacksonville. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kpy037xcdvY

You missed my point. If a tornado hits my neighborhood, I'll be mad, maybe inconvenienced, possibly injured, could even die. Having said that, I will not be hunkered down, put up plywood on my windows, evacuate, or buy a generator for the sole risk of a very very low risk of a tornado. During the 50 years I've lived in South or Central Florida, I have been impacted by just as many earthquakes as I have tornados LOL (zero). I'm simply saying that such phenomenon are infrequent enough, that extra precautions are not a consideration.

You are comparing the world before climate change to the world as it exists now. Hurricane Maria hit Vieques, PR as a cat 5 with embedded tornadoes that were not forecast. I don't know how you know what to blame on hurricanes and what to blame on tornadoes but a 30' sailboat (mine) picked up out of the water and deposited 40' inland sounds like a tornado to me.

[Soluna16]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

[WaveBreaking]

That ring of -80C temps around the eye reminds me of similar structures that were seen on Dorian and Patricia.

EDIT: Fixed the picture and added Dorian and Patricia for comparison.

[GCANE]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

[Jr0d]

No words right now.

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

I do not agree with Monroe County(the Florida Keys) decision to keep keep school in session. The decision is based on expecting significant winds until late Tuesday night at the earliest.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

You are not alone. Have been glued to this system since 6 am EDT.

[Pasmorade]

Why worry about peak intensity, tomorrow is when it goes over the loop current.

Oh, god no...

[BlowHard]

If you are in Florida trying to decide to ride it out or evacuate, I'll make this simple for you - evacuate if you can.

Even if you don't get flooded or suffer significant wind damage, odds are you will be without power for an extended time. The supply chain is going to be significantly disrupted, making it hard to get food and supplies into the impacted areas. There is tremendous potential for significant infrastructure damage to be caused, roads, bridges, electricity, water, sewer. So yes, take it from this Katrina evacuee - best decision I could have made.

I agree. And since there are so many people asking if they should leave, watch this video and then decide. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW__eXRFjEk

[Travorum]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

That's what I've been thinking, it corresponds roughly with radar.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

I saw no evidence for one on the microwave imagery. I suspect its just extreme convection.

[jasons2k]

Peak surge values for the Tampa Bay area went up. Now projected at 10-15 feet per this latest advisory.

Still too low IMO... 15-20 ft. seems more appropriate given landfall timing overnight Wednesday with a rising tide (high tide is early Thur morning).

This is true. If it makes landfall at the current NHC forecast point, it will be higher in Tampa Bay than 15’ in places. Potentially over 20ft.

[SecondBreakfast]

Does anyone know on average where storm surge from Helene last week was greater than expected and by about how much? I am curious if any predictions will also be overtopped here.

[MetroMike]

You cannot be definite about storm surge for Tampa Bay untill we see where it landfalls that makes all the difference .

[mpic]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

I hear you! I had planned to do a break-in of a new generator today (no worries as I'm in Texas) but can't pry myself away lol.

[xironman]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

See that, if recon shows a double maxima we may be in for a replacement cycle. Given that and the proximity to the Yucatan coast the storm could get quite larger.

[TallyTracker]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

The last 4 hours and the 4 hours before that. Got some stuff done on the side like figuring out how my colleagues are preparing and figuring out where my colleagues evacuating the hurricane will sit when they arrive at my office tomorrow.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

Latest microwave pass seems to suggest an outer eyewall has not formed. And the coldest temps being removed from the immediate eyewall doesn’t seem to be an indicator one way or the other, Patricia had this effect as well when reaching peak intensity.

[skillz305]

Models shifting a hair south if you guys care to check out the models page. We have to see if this is a trend.

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp is negative again

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, just wow. Took me just two hours to watch this deepen by 6 mbar and increase its winds by 5 mph. Milton will be in for the record books for sure.