ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Travorum]

Pinks on IR far removed from the eye.
Double eyewall might have formed or is forming.

I saw no evidence for one on the microwave imagery. I suspect its just extreme convection.

I am far from and expert in reading microwave imagery, but my guess would be that the CDG cloud tops correspond with this ring you can see at the low levels on 37GHz:


Microwave imagery is two hours old, it would have had time to build since then.

[Pasmorade]

Eye temp is negative again

Finally, weakening! I think...

[eastcoastFL]

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

I'm with ya. Also, Alabama is a long way away.

If it were me, I'd probably head for Homestead/Islamorada area. But that's just me. Not advising!

Tomorrow around lunchtime I'll make a decision and if it's forecast to bring extreme rain or wind to my area I'll be heading towards dade or the keys.

[syfr]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

It's the "slow motion train crash" effect...

[Kingarabian]

Eye temp is negative again

Finally, weakening! I think...

Could be the viewing angle/fluctuations. Very likely it's still got winds near 155kts to 160kts still.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye becoming smaller/more ragged on IR. Should see a pretty clear double wind max on recon

[jasons2k]

Does anyone know on average where storm surge from Helene last week was greater than expected and by about how much? I am curious if any predictions will also be overtopped here.

You can’t compare the two. Every storm is different and there are more factors at play than where the storm hit last time or how strong it was.

Speed, angle of approach, ‘built up surge’ from duration of the storm over water, tides, pressure gradient, and a bunch of other factors are unique to Milton and every storm. Please don’t even try to gamble by using Helene as a benchmark. This will be potentially worse by orders of magnitude depending on exactly when/where Milton makes landfall and how much the storm can weaken before landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

We're in Fort Pierce. We're prepared to drive to Fort Lauderdale or Miami if the track shifts.

Certainly no surge threat there. You could see sustained TS wind, maybe 40-50 mph and gusts to hurricane strength. No reason to evacuate unless you have someone in your family who would be seriously impacted if the power goes out.

We have supplies but would only head south if the track shifts significantly.

I'm concerned about flooding and the house we are renting has no shutters so if we are expecting hurricane force winds we're out of here. It's a concrete house but I can't chance something flying through the windows.

[kronotsky]

It looks like the eye has contracted a little bit, and the angle of the GOES satellite is now a little bit too steep to image the bottom of it. Contraction could be a sign of EWR... or it could be a sign of strengthening. No other data indicate that an EWR is happening right now (or will happen in the next less than one hour before the plane arrives).

I'd also like to point out that this narrative of a "missed peak" filled several pages of the Beryl thread earlier this year, on an evening very similar to this one. Many little bits of evidence were produced that supposedly indicated an eyewall replacement cycle or dry air intrusion or incipient shear. Beryl then proceeded to continue strengthening until the next plane arrived.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Forecast 185 mph would make this (tied for) the second strongest hurricane in Atlantic history behind only Hurricane Allen.

[PavelGaborik10]

Another missed peak

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Still intensifying?.....how much more can Milton strengthen?....this is the strongest cyclone that I personally have ever heard of....

Loop current.

The thing that gets every tropical cyclone drooling

[FrontRunner]

Anyone got an updated ETA on the first center pass? Plane just descended.

[Pelicane]

If it keeps gaining latitude, it's going to go right over the Scorpion Reef atolls. Tiny pieces of land but given the small core, wonder if that can disrupt it just a tiny bit.

[aspen]

Unfortunately for everyone hoping for recon to get peak intensity, the significant cooling of the eye suggests it passed. Doesn’t seem to be angle issues IMO. Fingers crossed it hasn’t weakened too much by the time Kermit gets there in like an hour or so.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No surprises if we see an EWRC, hurricanes can rarely maintain this stupid of an intensity for this long. May have a second wind if the HAFS is to be believed, which has nailed this system so far. My guess is Milton probably did briefly go below 900mb, if it hasn't already.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye temp is negative again

IMO this cooling might be a combination of satellite parallax and some cirrus clouds shrouding the eye due to intense convection. The latter happened earlier this morning when Milton was first trying to clear its eye.

Also as a side note, I do think that the convection that shows up in the bottom left is an outer band trying to form, but microwave suggests that it hasn’t wrapped all the way around the current eye yet, so I don’t think Milton has stopped strengthening yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Milton is gonna be up there with the great Gulf Monsters if it keeps going.

Allen (909 mb in GOM)
Camille (900-905 mb in GOM)
Katrina (902 mb in GOM)
Rita (895 mb in GOM)

And it still hasn’t hit the Loop Current…

Late, but with 905 mb, Milton made it. Gulf Monster.

Let’s see what happens with this EWRC.

[zal0phus]

It looks like the eye has contracted a little bit, and the angle of the GOES satellite is now a little bit too steep to image the bottom of it. Contraction could be a sign of EWR... or it could be a sign of strengthening. No other data indicate that an EWR is happening right now (or will happen in the next less than one hour before the plane arrives).

I'd also like to point out that this narrative of a "missed peak" filled several pages of the Beryl thread earlier this year, on an evening very similar to this one. Many little bits of evidence were produced that supposedly indicated an eyewall replacement cycle or dry air intrusion or incipient shear. Beryl then proceeded to continue strengthening until the next plane arrived.

I think everyone is a little traumatized from Eta or Sam. That said I do hope recon makes it to the peak