ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Take pictures of what you leave behind...tv, furniture, etc. And take important documents and keepsakes with you.
We have supplies but would only head south if the track shifts significantly.

I'm concerned about flooding and the house we are renting has no shutters so if we are expecting hurricane force winds we're out of here. It's a concrete house but I can't chance something flying through the windows.

I just looked at my local forecast and it's only calling for 40mph winds here and not a whole lot rain. I think we got more rain the past 3 days than we are forecast to see from Milton. Fingers crossed barring any south shift we will be ok. Stay safe!

[Owasso]

AF plane has taken off and according to the plan of the day, it should get a center fix in about 2 hours.

[ElectricStorm]

AF302 in the air now, two recons is nice

[chaser1]

Any thoughts on which particular models seem to better forecast shear? I would assume GFS & EURO would be quite similar especially for near term. I havnt bothered to look today because I can't peel myself away from the Discussion thread

[jdjaguar]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

GCANE

you mentioned earlier N FL getting massive amounts of precipitation...do you still hold that view?
NWS is 5-10 inches which while substantial, would be tolerable in my locale, 3-5 ft storm surge nothwithstanding.

[longhorn2004]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

When does Milton meet the shear? Can't wait to see the Jetstream collision.

[cheezyWXguy]

Twitter post showing higher resolution IR images that better capture eye temp. If someone can get this link to embed for me I’d greatly appreciate it:

https://x.com/cocoascola/status/1843401 ... WoEo-mboaQ

[InfernoFlameCat]

How far out is that plane? My source of info was tropical tidbits, which i cannot access atm.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Twitter post showing higher resolution IR images that better capture eye temp. If someone can get this link to embed for me I’d greatly appreciate it:

https://x.com/cocoascola/status/1843401 ... WoEo-mboaQ

Oh wow. Definitely is not weakening at all! Wow looks like patricia!!!

[Chemmers]

The outer -80/pink ring has continuously filled, and it is just about closed off...

I have just see that, please don't say we might have a super typhoon haiyan in the gulf of mexico

Please stay safe everyone

[Hammy]

NHC site is down, getting a 503 error

Looks like high traffic crashed it

[ConvergenceZone]

A plea to all our Florida members:

Please leave

I'm on a fixed income and cant help financially, but have land in SE Louisiana, on the Northshore, where a few campers can be parked. I've got a fenced in area that had a tree fall in one section but with a chainsaw and man power, could patch easily. It's grown up, so wouldn't be great for cows or horses, but great for goats or large outside dogs. I've got an extra large dogloo, and several large dog houses.

I've got cages and crates, if you need a place for chickens, rabbits, birds, small animals.

If there is any way I can help I will do everything in my power to do so. Please reach out.

Praying for you all

Thanks for your offer to help save the animals. I remember seeing a documentary on the large amount of cats and dogs that drown during bad hurricanes and it's a staggering number. So thanks again. Most of the time the animals that are lost aren't even brought up in the headlines, and it disgusts me.

[Woofde]

An EWRC right now would most likely not be in the interest of Florida. There's still ample time and likely even better conditions ahead for Milton. A larger core will resist the effects of shear down the road and drive significantly more surge.

[GCANE]

Here's a good picture of what ionospheric heating did to Milton today
Microwave soundings show the warm core all the way up to 100mb.
Ionospheric heating raises the atmosphere allowing the core to expand vertically.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[eastcoastFL]

My god, that pink ring is insane.

[jdjaguar]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

GCANE

you mentioned earlier N FL getting massive amounts of precipitation...do you still hold that view?
NWS is 5-10 inches which while substantial, would be tolerable in my locale, 3-5 ft storm surge nothwithstanding.

[Pelicane]

How far out is that plane? My source of info was tropical tidbits, which i cannot access atm.

Here's another website if Tropical Tidbits isn't working for you. Another user thought it should be making a pass in about 30 minutes.

https://cyclonicwx.com/recon/

[Owasso]

[eastcoastFL]

Here's a good picture of what ionospheric heating did to Milton today
Microwave soundings show the warm core all the way up to 100mb.
Ionospheric heating raises the atmosphere allowing the core to expand vertically.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

G, you're better versed than I. Does this storm have any chance of going annular? I always see that question pop up with intense storms but I don't really understand what it takes.

[cheezyWXguy]

How far out is that plane? My source of info was tropical tidbits, which i cannot access atm.

Plane looks to be descending to operational altitude. Won’t be long now