ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Zonacane
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2321 Postby Zonacane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:06 pm


The solid ring of lightning  :eek:
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2322 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:06 pm

WaveBreaking wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:I hope they removed all people from that island north of the Yucatan because that thing is about to be biblically leveled, like there might not be anything left including trees and buildings.



Did some digging and found that Scorpion Reef (that island group in the path) has only one inhabited island (Isla Pérez). And apparently Isla Pérez has a lighthouse but does not have any permanent residents.

Here's a photo. Parts of the lighthouse itself might survive (albeit almost certainly damaged) because it's newer construction (apparently it was originally constructed in the 1800s but has since been rebuilt/updraded), but the rest of that is toast if the eyewall goes over it.

The interesting thing is if you look on the top of the lighthouse, it looks like they have some scientific instruments up there. They're likely to go down, but I wonder what readings they'll get until then.

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 175 mph

#2323 Postby Flwxguy86 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:07 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Flwxguy86 wrote:
DunedinNate wrote:I grew up in Dunedin, family still lives there and I visit often. Ive felt like throwing up the whole day.



I am going to be riding this out in the Dunedin/Clearwater area, Not idea but it's not in any surge or flood zones, The wind is my only concern but the house is pretty sturdy and should be ok to ride it out there, If the roof decides to depart from the house then there isn't much I can do besides get under something and wait for it to end. Wish me Lucky everyone.


Are there shelters open in your area?


I'm currently in Oldsmar most of the shetlers I could go to are in the dunedin/clearwater area. I just hope this doesn't maintain cat 5 status all the way to landfall but then again right now, If the winds are 145mph, I don't think I am gonna notice a 15mpg uptick in winds.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2324 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:09 pm

GCANE wrote:Here's a good picture of what ionospheric heating did to Milton today
Microwave soundings show the warm core all the way up to 100mb.
Ionospheric heating raises the atmosphere allowing the core to expand vertically.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif


So, we in fact are seeing outflow as high as about 100mb??
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2325 Postby GCANE » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:09 pm

Here's the latest overhead radar shot that I could find.
About 1/2 hr ago

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... s18_85.png
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2326 Postby REDHurricane » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:10 pm

Zonacane wrote:

The solid ring of lightning  :eek:


Dear lord, yeah if that's not sub-900mb then I have no idea what would be... I would not be at all surprised if recon finds Milton knocking on Wilma's door pressure and wind-wise in the next few hours
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2327 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:10 pm

Zonacane wrote:

The solid ring of lightning  :eek:


This is one nasty nasty storm.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 175 mph

#2328 Postby TampaBayBee » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:10 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
mpic wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
I'm concerned about flooding and the house we are renting has no shutters so if we are expecting hurricane force winds we're out of here. It's a concrete house but I can't chance something flying through the windows.


I just looked at my local forecast and it's only calling for 40mph winds here and not a whole lot rain. I think we got more rain the past 3 days than we are forecast to see from Milton. Fingers crossed barring any south shift we will be ok. Stay safe!


Good to know. Leaving Manatee Co. tomorrow for Stuart. Thanks for the local update.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2329 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:11 pm

REDHurricane wrote:
Zonacane wrote:

The solid ring of lightning  :eek:


Dear lord, yeah if that's not sub-900mb then I have no idea what would be... I would not be at all surprised if recon finds Milton knocking on Wilma's door pressure and wind-wise in the next few hours


I guess we will find out soon. If it has peaked as some suspect it sure hasn't lost any potency yet.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2330 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:11 pm

The presentation is starting to look like some of the more extreme examples in history of tropical cyclones.

As others have said, wouldn't be shocked to see it down in the 890s...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 175 mph

#2331 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:13 pm

TampaBayBee wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
mpic wrote:


I just looked at my local forecast and it's only calling for 40mph winds here and not a whole lot rain. I think we got more rain the past 3 days than we are forecast to see from Milton. Fingers crossed barring any south shift we will be ok. Stay safe!


Good to know. Leaving Manatee Co. tomorrow for Stuart. Thanks for the local update.



Here's the local

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... adDay.y=18
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2332 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:13 pm

SHIPS RI Index had elevated probabilities for RI but overall failed to convey just how insanely favorable the atmo was for explosive intensification. DTOPS was far better although I know little about that one.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2333 Postby Exalt » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:14 pm

Will this thing hit 200MPH like Patricia? Horrifying.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2334 Postby craptacular » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:14 pm

Kermit should be passing through the center within the next 10 minutes or so.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2335 Postby Stormgodess » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:A plea to all our Florida members:

Please leave :cry:

I'm on a fixed income and cant help financially, but have land in SE Louisiana, on the Northshore, where a few campers can be parked. I've got a fenced in area that had a tree fall in one section but with a chainsaw and man power, could patch easily. It's grown up, so wouldn't be great for cows or horses, but great for goats or large outside dogs. I've got an extra large dogloo, and several large dog houses.

I've got cages and crates, if you need a place for chickens, rabbits, birds, small animals.

If there is any way I can help I will do everything in my power to do so. Please reach out.

Praying for you all


Thanks for your offer to help save the animals. I remember seeing a documentary on the large amount of cats and dogs that drown during bad hurricanes and it's a staggering number. So thanks again. Most of the time the animals that are lost aren't even brought up in the headlines, and it disgusts me.


And some others choose not to leave BECAUSE of their animals. It's why I wanted to put my offer out there. I don't have much, and the place is still rough since Ida, but I do have space and experience with all types of animals. It's not perfect but it's safe.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2336 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2337 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 pm

I think NOAA might be having comm issues. Last report 20 minutes ago.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2338 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:15 pm

This is not a traditional EWRC. This is a spiral banded structure with an incredibly compact core. This is just my opinion, but I'm not seeing any moat or wobbling of the eye.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2339 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:16 pm

Might eat crow here but I think central pressures will hold or be just above 900mb. Winds anywhere near 150-160kts. Reason is due to the eye cooling a bit and the pink ring might be more to do with an outer eyewall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 180 mph

#2340 Postby jdray » Mon Oct 07, 2024 5:16 pm

Looks like the NWS isn't playing around this time. Hurricane Watches are up for NE Florida counties:

Hurricane Milton Local Statement Advisory Number 11
FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522-GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364-080530-

Hurricane Milton Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL AL142024
523 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**TROPICAL WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE COAST AND THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
for Central Marion, Eastern Marion, and Western Marion
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Gilchrist, Southwestern Columbia, Suwannee, and
Western Alachua
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been issued for
Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St.
Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and
South Central Duval
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
for Coastal Camden and Coastal Glynn
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Inland Flagler, Inland
Nassau, Trout River, Western Clay, Western Duval, and Western
Putnam
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Baker, Bradford,
Brantley, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Hamilton, Inland Camden,
Inland Glynn, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia,
Southeastern Columbia, Union, Wayne, Western Charlton, and
Western Hamilton

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Central Marion, Eastern
Marion, and Western Marion
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Gilchrist,
Southwestern Columbia, Suwannee, and Western Alachua
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Duval, Coastal Flagler, Coastal Nassau, Coastal St.
Johns, Eastern Clay, Eastern Putnam, Inland St. Johns, and
South Central Duval
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Coastal Camden and Coastal Glynn
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Inland Flagler, Inland
Nassau, Trout River, Western Clay, Western Duval, and Western
Putnam
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baker, Bradford,
Brantley, Eastern Alachua, Eastern Hamilton, Inland Camden,
Inland Glynn, Northeastern Charlton, Northern Columbia,
Southeastern Columbia, Union, Wayne, Western Charlton, and
Western Hamilton

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 830 miles southwest of Jacksonville FL or about 740 miles
southwest of Ocala FL
- 21.8N 90.8W
- Storm Intensity 180 mph
- Movement East or 90 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Milton is now a category 5 hurricane in the southern Gulf
of Mexico. Milton will continue to move eastward and is predicted to
make landfall along the west coast of Florida sometime Wednesday
evening. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane strength as it moves
across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night.

Tropical storm force wind gusts are expected to begin by early
Wednesday morning across northeast Florida. Overall, sustained
tropical storm force winds are forecast for most of northeast Florida
and the southeast Georgia coast, with frequent hurricane force gusts
possible along the coast and St. Johns river basin.

Storm surge inundation of 3 to 5 feet is expected along the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia Atlantic coasts and near 2 to 4 feet
in the St Johns River basin.

Isolated tornadoes are possible within the outer rainbands Wednesday
through Wednesday night over portions of northeast Florida, including
Marion, Putnam, Flagler, and St. Johns counties.

Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts, are
expected across most of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia
coast, with up to 2 to 4 inches forecast over most of inland southeast
Georgia. With already saturated grounds, flash flooding will be
possible mainly across northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia
coast beginning Tuesday night.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across northeast Florida and portions of southeast Georgia. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland southeast Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia Atlantic coast
and the St. Johns River Basin. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across most of northeast Florida and coastal southeast
Georgia. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland southeast Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county or parish in which
you are located and where it is relative to current watches and
warnings. If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their
onsite disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially
pertaining to area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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