ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

Just saw that all tolls have been suspended for most of the state of Florida. Also, looks like traffic is a mess because there are tons of wrecks, and a huge one on 75 in Gainesville blocking all the northbound lanes

That explains why 301/441 from Wildwood through Ocala is a standstill nightmare.

[NotoSans]

The previous pass has 898.6mb with ~60kt winds and centre dropsonde still roughly agrees with the extrapolated pressure. Quite clear that a slight weakening trend has commenced as the storm enters into EWRC phase.

[StormPyrate]

I mean NHC has it 125 mph at landfall…unless it misses Tampa by a lot, seems very unlikely it would max out to tropical storms winds in Tampa

125 would be in a small are within the eyewall. Most of the area would get 80-100 MPH winds which are quite bad enough, thank you. The only thing we can really hope for is that the maximum winds usually aren't mixed down very well in a hurricane weakening at landfall, but even if that's the case strong winds will still be spread out and of course this does nothing to minimize surge.

Winds are irrelevant if you are 20 feet underwater.

Where are you seeing 20 ft of storm surge
There are lots of people in this area that are under no surge warnings and not even in areas that flood, Its where the shelters are. Those foks are concerned about Wind, which is what these gentelmen are discussing

[zal0phus]

Will the 7 PM advisory still report the 898 mb? It would kind of suck if they rolled with the 903 and entirely ignored the real peak

[Stormgodess]

A fair point about this happening now as opposed to landfall. The downside is many people may not react the next time, when the feel they evac'd prematurely, especially out of wind fears, not surge. There is always a later consequence. My question is, can the US ever get a Acapulco sneaker? Let's hope not.

Just in my personal opinion, the backlash that Meteorologists faced in the past with people not leaving next time, and griping because the forcast didn't pan out as badly as it was sold... is pretty much a thing of the past.

With social media today, people not directly affected by a disaster still get a VERY CLEAR view of what can happen.

Sure as with everything you'll still have random misinformed dullards ranting on Tik Tok. But for the most part I believe most people know better these days.

Again, in my personal opinion, I believe more reserved forcasts on these storms puts too many people's lives at risk. Not everyone has the ability or means to get out last minute.

But that's just me, and no matter my opinion, I still appreciate and respect the pros that deal with the stress, and put in the long hours, to keep us informed. I can't imagine how difficult it would be

[KWT]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

I thought they missed the center, but it is so tiny there are only 2 wind barbs that are not over 60kts

No. Last pass had 898mb extrap with 60kt FL, so that's about 5mb/h weakening rate, which is fast.

Fwiw it was 898mb with 24kts.

But remember center of low will literally be tornado size in all likelihood, odds of any plane striking direct hit on the core is fairly remote. Also care myst be taken with this plane, they are a little notorious for not being ultra accurate pressure wise. We await a dropsonde to see if that is backed up.

That pass still supports the operational 899ms for now though, maybe 900mbs.

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely a significant weakening trend this pass, not even 140kts FL on AF plane

[eastcoastFL]

About a half-hour ago CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper starts with Jake emphatically stating, A Category 5 hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. If I didn't know Milton was forecast to weaken to a Cat 3 by the time its eye reaches Florida I would think it was going to hit at Cat 5 intensity! The news media really needs to stop with the sensationalist headlines.

If it gets people's attention, I'm ok with it.

It's better than if they ignore that fact, thinking, "Oh, it's weakening."

I'm ok with it. They're reporting the facts as they are right now. An extremely dangerous cat 5 is headed for Florida, this is fact. Regardless of any weakening the surge will be that of a Cat 5 and that's the main story with this.

[WaveBreaking]

Tail Doppler radar shows concentric eyewalls during the latest mission. If the hurricane models are to be believed, then Milton should undergo a relatively quick eyewall meld/ewrc before having a secondary peak near the loop current tomorrow morning/afternoon.

[Owasso]

AF plane has 902.5mb with 39kts, another miss but with a 4nm eye, it was always going to be difficult getting a precise center fix. Let's hope the dropsondes have better data

[Pelicane]

Will the 7 PM advisory still report the 898 mb? It would kind of suck if they rolled with the 903 and entirely ignored the real peak

Even if they did that, the storm would likely still be assessed as having peaked at 898 mb in a post-season analysis.

[Woofde]

It is probably going to weaken some, not due to shear or dry air, but colder water. The area near the Yucatan isn't known for being warm and deep, very likely upwelling will keep it from the 800's till back into deeper warmer water. The hurricane models show this as well.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It looks as though we are starting a ewrc, might cause temporary weakening but once finished a restrengthening should happen until it hits the shear, but as always shear isn’t a guarantee or even shear as strong as advertised so as always if you’re in Florida prepare for one category higher than the forecast says

MIMIC is showing the beginning of an outer ring forming wrapping from the SW side

[eastcoastFL]

Extrap 903.5mb. Weakening fast.

There's a lot of wind in that drop, doesn't look like weakening.

[Keldeo1997]

There's your double wind maxima.

[NDG]

Secondary wind max recorded by AF recon.

610
URNT15 KNHC 072350
AF302 1114A MILTON HDOB 14 20241007
234230 2155N 09035W 6954 02822 //// +112 //// 035099 103 104 029 01
234300 2154N 09034W 6982 02723 9549 +120 //// 033114 122 117 035 01
234330 2153N 09032W 6931 02685 //// +119 //// 024134 138 142 045 01
234400 2152N 09031W 7003 02394 //// +133 //// 023094 135 174 041 05
234430 2152N 09029W 6985 02316 9081 +183 +170 024044 070 058 011 03
234500 2151N 09027W 6945 02324 9025 +206 +164 315002 029 039 006 00
234530 2151N 09025W 7017 02281 9067 +200 +169 199067 094 087 012 00
234600 2151N 09023W 6946 02516 9284 +156 //// 192121 124 127 025 01
234630 2151N 09021W 6990 02629 9426 +151 //// 181125 130 127 024 01
234700 2151N 09020W 6952 02768 9531 +150 +150 176109 121 110 008 00
234730 2151N 09018W 6970 02808 9620 +133 //// 177098 104 094 004 01
234800 2151N 09016W 6964 02857 9668 +130 //// 177088 094 080 002 01
234830 2151N 09015W 6969 02886 9711 +124 //// 179083 085 077 004 01
234900 2151N 09013W 6959 02922 //// +109 //// 180087 093 075 008 01
234930 2151N 09011W 6971 02925 //// +090 //// 177096 098 069 021 01
235000 2151N 09009W 6961 02960 //// +075 //// 183101 105 062 036 01
235030 2151N 09008W 6956 02984 //// +076 //// 188094 098 058 020 01
235100 2151N 09006W 6964 02989 9868 +089 //// 189089 094 056 013 01
235130 2151N 09004W 6974 02993 //// +085 //// 189079 084 053 008 01
235200 2151N 09002W 6967 03013 //// +087 //// 190072 076 046 013 01
$$
;

[Flwxguy86]

THIS! I am in no way downplaying it but it will weaken a decent amount before landfall, that won't stop the storm surge but it WILL NOT hit as a cat 5! Likely a 3 maybe a low end 4.

An amazing lesson in physics.

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

[wx98]

Looks like the AF plane just confirmed that the peak was missed earlier this afternoon. It probably got down to the low 890s.

[Pasmorade]

NHC has this at 897 mb...

[Kazmit]

NHC went with 897mb, officially making it the 5th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.