ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

wouldnt an open eyewall and higher temp just indicate an EWR might be happening

[Beef Stew]

We all saw the 898 drop when recon first arrived and assumed that Milton was still strengthening. Now that recon is suggesting the storm is actually on a weakening trend, it really makes me wonder what on earth this storm truly peaked at early this afternoon…

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, I'll be gone another hour...you guys need to keep this storm in check till I get back! I dont wanna come back to a storm with a 30mile eye going sub 890 on us

[ElectricStorm]

AF drop supports 902mb

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like my estimate of about 30mi wide was pretty close to accurate. Given the rate of weakening, and the rate of strengthening when the last plane left, I think it is conceivable that Milton peaked in the low 890s earlier this afternoon.

[Stormgodess]

An EWRC this early would still give Milton plenty of time over the Gulf Stream to crank back up, expand its wind field and increase its surge potential. It may not ever get back to sub 900 mb again but it really doesn’t need to in creating catastrophic and deadly storm surges along the west coast. A large high end CAT 3 hitting just north of Tampa Bay would be historical regarding storm surge, along with the hurricane force winds going well inland.

I was thinking it might be worse than Katrina for the middle part of FL

I'm 100 miles from the coast and during Katrina we lost power for 6wks and had trees down everywhere including one near the house that busted the water line when it's roots came up.

Just to give some perspective

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that we're saying that this storm is, indeed, weaker with a core pressure of 901-904 mbar, is mildly comical and just a testament to how insanely strong Milton had been

[sasha_B]

We all saw the 898 drop when recon first arrived and assumed that Milton was still strengthening. Now that recon is suggesting the storm is actually on a weakening trend, it really makes me wonder what on earth this storm truly peaked at early this afternoon…

...like with Kirk and Beryl, except for an even more remarkable storm. I suppose we'll wait and see what they say on the TCR. ATCF best track doesn't even keep the 897 measurement for 0z.

[Frank P]

An EWRC this early would still give Milton plenty of time over the Gulf Stream to crank back up, expand its wind field and increase its surge potential. It may not ever get back to sub 900 mb again but it really doesn’t need to in creating catastrophic and deadly storm surges along the west coast. A large high end CAT 3 hitting just north of Tampa Bay would be historical regarding storm surge, along with the hurricane force winds going well inland.

I was thinking it might be worse than Katrina for the middle part of FL

Going to be very hard to beat the 30 feet plus surge for Katrina in the Bay St Louis Ms area, heck I was ~60 miles east of the center and I had 24-25 feet of surge on the front beach in Biloxi with 3-4 waves on top of that! The MS coast continental shelf is probably more shallow than the west coast of FL, but just speculation on my part. Katrina was a very large storm, slow moving and came in just about 90 degrees perpendicular to the coast, all worse case conditions for a storm surge. It was only a weakening Cat 3 hurricane at landfall. I found my second floor intact one block off the beach with the roof shingles still on it. I doubt the winds at Biloxi were ever at Cat 3 levels. The surge destroyed everything two to three blocks off the beach in some locations, more so in the the BSL and Waveland areas.

[Michele B]

To help convince them, you might add that they may not be able to get to their home for some time (maybe weeks) and there will probably be no electricity for just as long...IF their home survives the storm.

Living in such primitive conditions will wear on the most battle weary soul, especially hurricane hardened pros (like me?) who have been through lots of storms and as I "age," I am finding it harder to endure those conditions.

Amen to that sister. Laura did me in, I think; if not her, Delta a few weeks later. And I don't care who you are, once you've lived it--sifting through your soaked personal items, picking up your photo albums from your neighbors' yards, watching your bedroom ceiling come crashing down on the sentimental parts of your life, among others--hurricane PTSD is real and extremely painful.

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

[aspen]

I think we’ll see a slight upgrade post-season to account for the recon gap, similar to Patricia though not as extreme. Dropping the pressure to 894/95 mb in post doesn’t seem too much for even the modern NHC.

[NotoSans]

I think we’ll see a slight upgrade post-season to account for the recon gap, similar to Patricia though not as extreme. Dropping the pressure to 894/95 mb in post doesn’t seem too much for even the modern NHC.

This is what they did for Rita so that's possible.

[Pipelines182]

I think we’ll see a slight upgrade post-season to account for the recon gap, similar to Patricia though not as extreme. Dropping the pressure to 894/95 mb in post doesn’t seem too much for even the modern NHC.

I think that point will be mute if it starts strengthening again. If it gets the double eye wall situation sorted, no reason it won’t dive back into the 800s. I can’t remember ever seeing a mature hurricane with a full ring of -80 cloud tops in the CDO like this, only typhoons.

[GCANE]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

GCANE

you mentioned earlier N FL getting massive amounts of precipitation...do you still hold that view?
NWS is 5-10 inches which while substantial, would be tolerable in my locale, 3-5 ft storm surge nothwithstanding.

I think they are basing this on the NHC track.
I was seeing something different on GFS.
I'll concede to the experts

[weeniepatrol]

Hard agree. Recon leaves at 911mb with it deepening 12mb per fix. 6 hours later the next plane arrives right as the eye begins becoming less clear and it's 897mb and rising with every subsequent fix. Probably peaked 880s earlier

[Pipelines182]

The size of this windfield is so insanely small, the Yucatán might not even see hurricane force winds!

[MarioProtVI]

Milton did what Delta could not: sub-900. Still absolutely insane that this time yesterday it was only a Cat 1. Really did an Otis/Wilma type feat today.

[Michele B]

I once heard someone say there is no Category 6 Hurricanes, because there is no damage to analyze at that point, because there simply isn't anything left.

Is that true?

It's logical.

[Stormgodess]

To help convince them, you might add that they may not be able to get to their home for some time (maybe weeks) and there will probably be no electricity for just as long...IF their home survives the storm.

Living in such primitive conditions will wear on the most battle weary soul, especially hurricane hardened pros (like me?) who have been through lots of storms and as I "age," I am finding it harder to endure those conditions.

Amen to that sister. Laura did me in, I think; if not her, Delta a few weeks later. And I don't care who you are, once you've lived it--sifting through your soaked personal items, picking up your photo albums from your neighbors' yards, watching your bedroom ceiling come crashing down on the sentimental parts of your life, among others--hurricane PTSD is real and extremely painful.

This is absolutely true!

I never would have believed I was someone who would "suffer" from PTSD, but I guarantee you, I do, ever since Ian.

I went through Charley and wasn't fazed, but Ian did me in!

We are MOVING just as soon as we can sell this property (already bought a place in Arizona - LAND LOCKED STATE!!! No hurricanes). Unfortunately, hurricanes keep popping up and making it impossible for us to get O-U-T.

The 2016 flood is what kicked in my weather PTSD. Which I never even realized was a "Thing" before. Especially since it wasn't a named storm and just a freak rain event. After it, anytime we got heavy rain I'd be in full blown panic mode along with half the people I know from my area.

I'm a born and raised girl, but for the first time in my life I've been considering leaving. Was looking at places in the mountains. But now after Helene and what she did. I don't know if any place is safe

[got ants?]

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

I'm well versed in hurricanes been doing them since 1976 and don't need an education.. Even 100 mph winds coupled with 10 or 12 foot of storm surge would be far too much for an area with near zero recovery. Further, FEMA isn't doing its best, they've been a complete failure. Desantis had to take over and cut locks at city and county dumps to do 24/7 pickups. I live here, i know what's going and I have projectiles piled up all around me.

Not sure whom I'm responding to..fxguy-whatever...??

I've been through, how many hurricanes, living here 65 years in south florida?,,, Andrew landed many miles south of me. We (in Hollywood/Ft Laud) were in the predicted path of him. I sent my wife and daughter, south, hoping it would be better, but within hours, Andrew cut a path south. At our homd, we had over 100+ mph winds. It took me 2 days, with chain saws, and a 6" lifted Ramcharger to get to my family.

This calling out has no purpose, besides the fact that Cane is right