ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pipelines182]

I once heard someone say there is no Category 6 Hurricanes, because there is no damage to analyze at that point, because there simply isn't anything left.

Is that true?

It's logical.

It’s not true, we’ve seen plenty of buildings survive cat 5 winds. 200 mph winds will do substantially more damage than 160 when you look at well built structures.

[rickcorvin]

D. 906 mb
E. 075 deg 38 kt
F. OPEN S
G. CO5-24

"906 mb"
"OPEN S"

???

I believe CO is the code for concentric eyes. So I assume Open S means the outer eye wall was open to the south.

[Exalt]

drop was 904mb with 32kt winds

Extrapolating this weakening trend suggests it peaked in the low 890s between flights, so it likely beat Rita as the strongest GOM storm.

It's gonna be another case of never knowing the true high intensity, especially unfortunate for a storm this strong.

I'm assuming there will be an incredibly in-depth revision on post-analysis.

[underthwx]

.CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...from NHC 7 PM ...

[AnnularCane]

Instead of being productive the last 4 hours I've refreshed this forum like an addict waiting for this airplane to arrive. Anyone else feel the same way?

No.

I've spent the past 2 hours trying to read each post on each page and KEEP UP! The pages are adding up faster than I can read them all!

I went to eat dinner and put my clothes in the wash. When I got back there were 15-16 more pages.

I have no actual intention of staying up all night, but I know I will feel a need to keep checking this thread in a futile effort to not get too far behind. Because I MUST read it all!

At one point I actually thought of saying, "uhhh, can you guys stop posting for a while so I can catch up?"

[underthwx]

7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7
Location: 21.9°N 90.4°W
Moving: E at 10 mph
Min pressure: 897 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

[derpbynature]

Apologies if this is off-topic, but I think it's quasi-relevant. From my understanding, the Earth was hit with a large solar flare (or is going to be imminently). Does science say anything about how that can affect the atmosphere and weather in general, and a hurricane like this in particular? Would it be a strengthening factor or a weakening one? Thanks in advance.

[jdjaguar]

And that means what? A Cat 3 or 4 is still devastating and Cat 5 surge. Would be extremely devastating when coupled with what just happened with Helene and still near zero recovery

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

I'm well versed in hurricanes been doing them since 1976 and don't need an education.. Even 100 mph winds coupled with 10 or 12 foot of storm surge would be far too much for an area with near zero recovery. Further, FEMA isn't doing its best, they've been a complete failure. Desantis had to take over and cut locks at city and county dumps to do 24/7 pickups. I live here, i know what's going and I have projectiles piled up all around me.

I side with caneman.

My son sent me a video he took yesterday while on a bike ride of furniture etc. piled up on the street outside of every home on the barrier island by Indian Rocks Beach/Madeira Beach. All of these items will become airborne missiles in even the winds you conceded. FEMA has been counter-productive at best. This is not a political statement. It is fact.

[Hammy]

Grain of salt, but I did some math at the current weakening rate (averaged 5mb/hr), and the earlier intensification rate (averaged 10mb/hr), and where they'd meet up

I came up with about 880mb around 3-4pm (885mb if you go with 7mb/hr intensification), if these rates were continuous.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Apologies if this is off-topic, but I think it's quasi-relevant. From my understanding, the Earth was hit with a large solar flare (or is going to be imminently). Does science say anything about how that can affect the atmosphere and weather in general, and a hurricane like this in particular? Would it be a strengthening factor or a weakening one? Thanks in advance.

Some theories that the ionosphere heating can cause slight strengthening. It is a small effect though.

[gailwarning]

Glad to hear they are staging. The power trucks will be from across the country.

You'll see caravans of them heading in on the freeways.

They stage in a safety zone along with all the first responders who evacuated once a mandatory evacuation order was issued.

As a review a citizen is not required to evacuate when mandatory evacuations are ordered.

It means all emergency personnel including the police are no longer there to help and you truly are on your own.

Was always a sad feeling when they all left just before the storm. Many wanted to stay but the protocols are there for a reason.

Along with the power workers cutting their way in all the first-responders were there eager to get into the war zone and do their heroic work.

Chuck

This is true, of course, but people tend to forget that!

In fact, the first thing they do once there is a problem (water flooding in, roof flies away or tree comes down) is call 911 and ask for help! It's almost as if they simply do not believe first responders will not come!

Amazing. They will endanger someone else's life just because they don't believe what they were told about how bad it might get, and then want to be "bailed out" once it does exactly what they were told it would do!

I also wonder at this point, after Francine and Helene, what the supply stockpile for poles, cable, and transformers is like? I read something once, that replacing transformers would be what would set back recovery from an EMP or large solar flare. That there isn't enough stockpiled.

Does anyone have a lead on where such info can gathered? Especially with all the geopolitical issues the past few years that has limited supplies of other electronic components. I'm curious on how supplies for our grid systems are standing

People need to understand that staying potentially puts first responders in jeopardy. Five have been killed so far responding to Helene: 2 in NC, 2 in SC and one in GA.

[Beef Stew]

Grain of salt, but I did some math at the current weakening rate (averaged 5mb/hr), and the earlier intensification rate (averaged 10mb/hr), and where they'd meet up

I came up with about 880mb around 3-4pm (885mb if you go with 7mb/hr intensification), if these rates were continuous.

Based strictly off of satellite imagery, I’d estimate the true peak was somewhere around 20:30-21:30 z (3:30-4:30 pm EDT), which would seem to line up with your estimate.

I think it’s entirely plausible that Milton peaked somewhere between 885 and 890, with winds in the 185-195 realm.

[Aggiemon96]

The 2016 flood is what kicked in my weather PTSD. Which I never even realized was a "Thing" before. Especially since it wasn't a named storm and just a freak rain event. After it, anytime we got heavy rain I'd be in full blown panic mode along with half the people I know from my area.

I'm a born and raised girl, but for the first time in my life I've been considering leaving. Was looking at places in the mountains. But now after Helene and what she did. I don't know if any place is safe

Literally days before Laura peeled the top off my house like a sardine can, we paid off our house in Louisiana and closed on property at 10K foot elevation in southern Colorado. Better half and I had made the decision to sell and move to central Texas and split time between the two, but the kids talked us out of it. They want a familiar place to land when they come home for visits from college.

Now seriously pondering a permanent move. Of course, our place up in the mountains is subject to its own brand of weather pains. Good thing about hurricanes is, if you are risk-averse (much more so now that I have crossed the half-century mark) you can see them suckers coming from a long way away (usually) and GTHO.

[Michele B]

My parents are supposed to drive down to Bonita Springs in a week (snow birds). My Mom told me that the development where their house is was told to evacuate due to surge. That didn't even happen with Ian. I have been trying to get them to delay a week, but they aren't hearing it

Don't know what damage they may have had with Helene (probably little to none), they should expect some damage due to surge from this one. That being the case, there may not be anything there for them to come to. I mean, electric might be out, stores in their area might be damaged and closed, other buildings around them might need rehabilitation, which will cause a lot of mess and noise while it's being cared for. Not a fun time to start their winter time in FL.

Then there's the (unrealized yet) threat of another storm behind Milton....lots of reasons to just wait.

[Steve]

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

I'm well versed in hurricanes been doing them since 1976 and don't need an education.. Even 100 mph winds coupled with 10 or 12 foot of storm surge would be far too much for an area with near zero recovery. Further, FEMA isn't doing its best, they've been a complete failure. Desantis had to take over and cut locks at city and county dumps to do 24/7 pickups. I live here, i know what's going and I have projectiles piled up all around me.

I side with caneman.

My son sent me a video he took yesterday while on a bike ride of furniture etc. piled up on the street outside of every home on the barrier island by Indian Rocks Beach/Madeira Beach. All of these items will become airborne missiles in even the winds you conceded. FEMA has been counter-productive at best. This is not a political statement. It is fact.

First claw truck got to debris by my house after Katrina in November. They had money in our accounts quick and got me a trailer by December. But instead of knee jerking, consider the scope.

[aspen]

Grain of salt, but I did some math at the current weakening rate (averaged 5mb/hr), and the earlier intensification rate (averaged 10mb/hr), and where they'd meet up

I came up with about 880mb around 3-4pm (885mb if you go with 7mb/hr intensification), if these rates were continuous.

Unfortunately, if that’s the case, I doubt the NHC would go that far in post-season. They’ll probably drop it 3-5 mbar.

We don’t have any way of knowing if/when Milton leveled off its intensification at some point between recon passes. Could’ve peaked just a little lower than what we saw tonight, or it could’ve beaten Wilma. Impossible to say.

As for winds, I’d go with 160 kt, which I think the NHC has a decent chance of going with in post too. They bumped up Patricia by 10 kt.

[drewschmaltz]

It has been said plenty but... Helene really showed us how much size matters when it comes to storm surge.

Charley had hurricane force winds 25 miles miles from the center and tropical storm winds 85 miles. Peak winds at landfall were about 150mph. Storm surge was roughly 5 to 9 ft.

Milton currently seems to have a similar swath. I don't know exactly where to find the data, but it seems to be roughly 30 miles across.

Looks like Helene has tropical storm winds over 300 miles from the center. Those on the West Coast of FL can attest... It was just different.

So... This is to say... Any EWRC or other event that leads to a bigger wind field will make the situation worse. The smaller the better.

[CrazyC83]

Since the eyewall was still closed at the first pass (and at its smallest), that is when I think the peak intensity was (160 kt / 897 mb). On the BT, I would time it at 2200Z, a non-synoptic point, and put the 00Z intensity at 150 kt / 902 mb. If the first pass had a concentric eyewall, the assumption could have been that it was stronger earlier.

[SecondBreakfast]

It means if your expectation is that all of Pinellas County is going to see 125mp+ winds then you are misinformed. There will be pockets and a few minutes of some extreme winds as the storm passes but yes the surge is THE biggest issue, It is what will make this storm historic not the winds. The winds will no doubt do severe damage to an area of 20-25 miles on landfall but the rest will see 80-90mph winds gusting maybe just over 100mph. They are doing their best to clean up what they can from Helene. I've been through 4 hurricanes myself and I know what it feels like, maybe you have to but unless you go hunting for the eye, only a small area will see the strongest winds. The shear is also going to take most of the rain and a decent amount of wind out of the southern portion of the storm, Unfortunately for me the area I am going to be riding it out will likely see pretty strong winds but it won't see any surge. Remember, Run from the water, Hide from the wind.

I side with caneman.

My son sent me a video he took yesterday while on a bike ride of furniture etc. piled up on the street outside of every home on the barrier island by Indian Rocks Beach/Madeira Beach. All of these items will become airborne missiles in even the winds you conceded. FEMA has been counter-productive at best. This is not a political statement. It is fact.

Just literally saw a video of Jim Cantore next to a waist high pile of debris and demo trash.

[Beef Stew]

Since the eyewall was still closed at the first pass (and at its smallest), that is when I think the peak intensity was (160 kt / 897 mb). On the BT, I would time it at 2200Z, a non-synoptic point, and put the 00Z intensity at 150 kt / 902 mb. If the first pass had a concentric eyewall, the assumption could have been that it was stronger earlier.

Ignore my post; I didn’t see the edit.