ATL: MILTON - Models

[fllawyer]

Anyone have the graphic/source for the TVCN adjustments and history?

[NDG]

18z Euro very persistent on Pinellas County landfall, third run in a row.

[NDG]

Very clearly the TVCN consensus being further south is being pulled by the CTX and UKMET interpolated models which didn't do to well with Helene and Francine.
When I take them out of the equation the consensus is still further north.

[CronkPSU]

Very clearly the TVCN consensus being further south is being pulled by the CTX and UKMET interpolated models which didn't do to well with Helene and Francine.
When I take them out of the equation the consensus is still further north.

https://i.imgur.com/DinbC7X.gif
https://i.imgur.com/1oKp2ud.gif

that's a huge difference for tampa and orlando....

[NDG]

Anyone have the graphic/source for the TVCN adjustments and history?

Not doing too well so far, at least not perfect as it usually is.

[NDG]

HAFS-A actually did a fairly good job in forecasting Milton heading south of due east.

[Deshaunrob17]

HAFS models for the win with Milton. I’m impressed with how spot on their forecasts have been from the beginning.

[eastcoastFL]

The cane models are pretty adamant about Milton expanding in size.

[ronjon]

Think we'll see a flattening of the track more eastward after landfall on future model runs. The Euro, ICON, HAF-A, and HAF-B in their most recent runs are showing an almost due east track across the state after landfall in the Tampa Bay region.

[Poonwalker]

Is this going to come inland as a cat 2? Seems all the models show significant degradation due to shear.

[tolakram]

Is this going to come inland as a cat 2? Seems all the models show significant degradation due to shear.

Should be on a weakening trend, though interaction with the front will probably result in a lot of strong gusts, plus surge won't be reduced by much, if any.

[Poonwalker]

Is this going to come inland as a cat 2? Seems all the models show significant degradation due to shear.

Should be on a weakening trend, though interaction with the front will probably result in a lot of strong gusts, plus surge won't be reduced by much, if any.

Yeah the surge is going to be historic. Just hoping the winds don’t take off roofs and break windows. Let alone trees coming down can be life threatening.

[sponger]

Is this going to come inland as a cat 2? Seems all the models show significant degradation due to shear.

Should be on a weakening trend, though interaction with the front will probably result in a lot of strong gusts, plus surge won't be reduced by much, if any.

Yeah the surge is going to be historic. Just hoping the winds don’t take off roofs and break windows. Let alone trees coming down can be life threatening.

How close will this come to Tampa Bay? Still seems like it can go either way! So much on the line! Even a miss to the South will cause devastation to the coast South of it for a good distance. Does anyone remember what the surge that Ian was in Fort Meyers? I found this and wonder how much protection was decimated during Helene.

https://www.news-press.com/story/news/environment/2024/09/30/helene-ripped-away-fort-myers-beach-emergency-berm-sanibel-hit-too/75451374007/

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon track nearly identical to 18z, maybe a hair left/north, however it's about 8 hours slower. Landfall bradenton, exit Melbourne.

[NDG]

0z ICON much stronger on this run than previous 18z, slightly to the left.

[ronjon]

Looks like NHC shifted track slightly south at 11 pm update. Now close to Bradenton (south side of Tampa Bay) and more E-NE track from there to the east coast.

[CronkPSU]

0z Icon track nearly identical to 18z, maybe a hair left/north, however it's about 8 hours slower. Landfall bradenton, exit Melbourne.

https://i.imgur.com/PxmPnYB.gif

quite the right hook on that last frame...the timing of that if it verified could be billions in damage on the coast

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS, same strength/timing, but slightly right/south of 18z riding up the bay/while clipping south edge of St. Pete, (From Madeira beach at 18z) exits north of Cape Canaveral (Playalinda Beach). Models are tightening around the bay in general.

[CronkPSU]

GFS about the same landfall area again...will need someone with better resolution than i can get on pivotal to say if it is a bit further north of south...same intensity as previous models, not as sharp an east track, more ENE than the other models

[Blown Away]

Wow, GFS coming in S of Tampa now…