ATL: MILTON - Models

[FLLurker32]

HWRF is going rogue and headed to Crystal River or Cedar Key.


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The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

It looks to me like Milton has been generally moving ENE, pulling just north of current track now. I suspect they’re picking up on that.

[Poonwalker]

HWRF is going rogue and headed to Crystal River or Cedar Key.


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The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

I thought I read the HAFS-A OR B had been one of the most accurate. Anyone else read that or know if true which one?

They were 10-15 percent more accurate in the 3-5 day window for track. They are more accurate at predicting intensity as well.

[Bocadude85]

The hurricane models were to far west for Helene. I wonder if they have a west bias for Northeast moving storms.

I thought I read the HAFS-A OR B had been one of the most accurate. Anyone else read that or know if true which one?

They were 10-15 percent more accurate in the 3-5 day window for track. They are more accurate at predicting intensity as well.

They(HAFS-A/B, HMON & HWRF) were also consistently too far west with Helene, go back and look through the model thread for Helene. At 21 hours before landfall they were still running to far west. Not saying it will necessarily be the same case with Milton.. just a observation.

[chaser1]

I cant stay awake any longer - "hurricane brain drain" lol. One thing real quick though because I dont know if it came up thus far. Has anyone noticed how all the globals initialized the storm at 0Z? GFS, CMC, and ICON had an initial pressure ranging from 960's - 970's mb. What's up with that??? (Both HAFS did had the correct pressure for that time)

[kevin]

06z ICON slightly further north, landfall just north of Bradenton.

[caneman]

06z ICON slightly further north, landfall just north of Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/G0imNBa.png

So basically into Tampa Bay. Yikes!

[BobHarlem]

0z Euro, no change in track/timing compared with Milton going up the bay, exit Cape Canaveral

[kevin]

06z GFS pinpoint accuracy right into Tampa Bay. Would be catastrophic if it verifies and I fear we're getting into the time range where there is a big chance of it becoming reality.

[DESTRUCTION5]

While the GFS says F the frontal boundary..

The Euro ensembles had very few members north of Tampa in the 0z. Mean shifted south from 18z to 0z. Next up 06z.

https://x.com/ECMWFbot/status/1843558335800594800?s=19

[Keldeo1997]

Unfortunately the GFS seems to be down trending the shear. 06Z GFS Intensifies almost up until landfall. Hopefully this doesn't become a trend on hurricane models.

[BobHarlem]

Overnight 0z Hurricane Models

Hafs A: Landfall Madiera Beach (Slighly left/north of 18z) exit Titusville/Playalinda Beach


Hafs B: Landfall Indian Rocks Beach (hair a hair left/north of 18z) exit south of New Smyrna Beach (Oak hill)


Hmon: Landfall Tarpon Springs (same as 18z), exit New Smyrna Beach


Hwrf: Landfall Near Homosassa Springs Shift left/north from Tarpon Springs at 18z , Exit Daytona Beach.

[chris_fit]

Another view of 06z GFS

[xironman]

Another view of 06z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/ulrQ8Tx.png

Looking at that by the time the destructive shear hits it, the storm will be well inland. Also keep in mind if the storm is moving along at 12mi/hr it will be moving with the winds so the relative shear will be less.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/08/24 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
SHEAR (KT) 13 11 15 19 21 26 39 40 54 51 55 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 4 6 5 7 5 3 6 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 222 224 194 192 210 224 237 242 239 245 257 261 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A

[toad strangler]

There is only one 6z GFS ensemble member N of Tampa Bay. 0z Euro ensembles was similar with just one that would be significantly more N of Tampa Bay. Many members on both between Tampa and Fort Myers.

[BobHarlem]

6z HAFS B: No change in track from 0z, but a little slower, landfall near Madeira Beach, Atlantic exit Titusville/Playalinda Beach.

[BobHarlem]

6z HAFS-A Very slight left/north shift from 0z, just north of Redington Beach. Atlantic exit south of New Smyrna Beach (Oak Hill).

[BobHarlem]

6z HMON south/right shift from 0z to north side of the bay channel from Tarpon Springs. Exit Titusville/Playalinda Beach.

[NDG]

Hurricane models showing Milton right at landfall with pressure in the 950s mb is still a solid Cat 3 at landfall, what will make it worst is the expanded area of hurricane force winds so areas well to the south of Tampa Ba could also see some really high storm surge.

[BobHarlem]

06z HWRFslight right/south shift from Homosassa Springs to landfall near Weeki Wachee, exits near Daytona Beach, timing unchanged (but it's one of the furthest out models to landfall)

Overall seems like the target area for most of the 0z/6z models are hovering around is the Bay Channel (Egmont Channel). With HWRF the most north, and consensus a little south over Bradenton. Furthest south is the 0z Canadian with Sarasota, (Although it looks like the 6z canadian is a little north, but hard to tell on the low res 6z charts) would not want to be on the skyway bridge during this.

[toad strangler]

6z Euro is WEAKER and comes in around Bradenton / Sarasota and moving almost due E across the state