ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

Not sure I agree with either your observation or conclusion. Maybe IR it's not as pretty as it looked yesterday, but if you look under-the-hood the structure is very sound still. Eye obscuration could be remnants from the original inner eyewall still holding on somewhere, or another structural evolution.



The HAFS called for this as far back as yesterday morning; an EWRC overnight into the morning, pressures and winds staying steady until about 00z where Milton begins intensifying for a secondary peak. It has done well so far.

[grapealcoholic]

Looks like another pinhole eye

[Hammy]

926 extrap, which seems about the same as earlier. I'm willing to bet that, given the rate it was rising and how much the satellite degraded in the hours after, that the pressure probably continued rising after the plane left and is probably on it's way back down now.

[Keldeo1997]

Eyewall starting to intensify on Cancun rader.

[chris_fit]

Checkout the FL Radar - look at the showers moving from E to W in East Central FL. Is that indicative of how strong that sheer is up over C/N FL?

[ColdMiser123]

No evidence of a double wind maxima anymore. In line with microwave data, the eyewall replacement cycle appears to have nearly completed. Cloud debris from the inner eyewall remnants are still obscuring the eye on IR.

[NDG]

Solid eyewall this morning.
The size of the eye is bigger.
It has started to gain latitude.

[GCANE]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[Michele B]

Even during EWRC, Milton still wants to keep the -80C ring.

https://i.postimg.cc/nzZqPcJr/goes16-ir-14-L-202410080217.gif

Geez Scorpion reef is getting pounded right now. I realize it's uninhabited, but wonder what sort of ecological damage a storm like this could do to it?

Earth has “endured” Mother Nature’s wrath since long before humans were around. The way I see it, probably some of the most “pristine” places got that way precisely because of some weather event we don’t know about.

[aspen]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

Why specifically close to noon? Is that when ionospheric heating from last night’s G3 storm will peak?

[NDG]

Solid low end Cat 4, let the re-strengthening begin.

[jlauderdal]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

It hits the loop today, whats up with space weather today?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seeing a lot of lightning firing in the new eyewall. We'll see if the pressure is dropping between passes.

[NDG]

Checkout the FL Radar - look at the showers moving from E to W in East Central FL. Is that indicative of how strong that sheer is up over C/N FL?

https://i.imgur.com/hmsznO3.gif

GFS is persistent that the shear will be ~25 knots just prior to or at landfall, moving parallel to the shear vector it will not be enough to knock down its core until after landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Recon descending to operational altitude and about to enter Milton. Very curious what they will find, not only Milton's intensity but especially the status of the eye(wall).

Satellite presentation continues to degrade. Can’t imagine they will find the re-strengthening that NHC predicted.

Not sure I agree with either your observation or conclusion. Maybe IR it's not as pretty as it looked yesterday, but if you look under-the-hood the structure is very sound still. Eye obscuration could be remnants from the original inner eyewall still holding on somewhere, or another structural evolution.

https://i.imgur.com/pf35fFO.jpeg

The HAFS called for this as far back as yesterday morning; an EWRC overnight into the morning, pressures and winds staying steady until about 00z where Milton begins intensifying for a secondary peak. It has done well so far.

It looks like the structure is sound. It probably leveled off a bit over night and will gradually strengthen a bit more this morning. Hopefully I'm wrong but I don't see any signs of it falling apart.

[GCANE]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

Why specifically close to noon? Is that when ionospheric heating from last night’s G3 storm will peak?

Yes, when the blue area gets over the GoM
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[grapealcoholic]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

Why specifically close to noon? Is that when ionospheric heating from last night’s G3 storm will peak?

Yes, when the blue area gets over the GoM
https://solarham.com/globald.htm

You're joking right?

[GCANE]

EWRC complete, only one wind maxima
Expecting another round of intensification close to noon EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

It hits the loop today, whats up with space weather today?

Still strong geomagnetic storm
https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Primarily from low-energy electrons and high-energy protons.
https://solarham.com/protons.htm

[toad strangler]

Seeing a lot of lightning firing in the new eyewall. We'll see if the pressure is dropping between passes.

https://i.imgur.com/DO9U59S.png

Milton has already grown in size.

[xironman]

Doing a good job of walling off the dry air so that is not going to help