ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

The shear idea before landfall is losing steam, gfs sniffed it out, lets see how the other modeling does with it.

[kevin]

AF309 now already has a 137 kt FL measurement and found 928.8 mb with 23 kt winds. The extrapolated pressure measurements seem to indicate a 926 - 927 mb hurricane right now. Recon data supports 125 kt, but NHC might go with 130 kt since Milton is clearly strengthening again.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Pressure seems to be steady or maybe slightly increasing between passes.

Pressure is definitely dropping.

[ColdMiser123]

Pressure seems to be steady or maybe slightly increasing between passes.

We don't have an apples to apples comparison for those passes, since the plane descended 50 mb between each pass. Potentially due to the fact that a second recon aircraft has arrived, flying at 700 mb.

[kevin]

Dvorak also likes the IR trend, raw T# back to 7.4.

[eastcoastFL]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

Indeed, the last ships shear forecast has 26 kt at the +36 timestamp and 39 kt at the +48 timestamp just after landfall. Shear will most likely be in roughly the same direction as Milton so you can take another 10 kt or so from that value. Relative shear might thus only be 15 - 30 kt at landfall, much lower than the 40 - 50 kt we saw a few days ago. I can elaborate further, but I think we all understand that it isn't good news.

Ya, no bueno. Add that to Very warm SST/OHC and I don't think it will have the major debilitating factors we are hoping for. The west coast is still staring down the barrel of an extremely powerful major hurricane. Shear forecasts are always a crapshoot so who knows maybe we will get lucky.

[eastcoastFL]

Dammmmn!
Nearly 90mm/hr rain rate.
I think that is the highest I have ever seen.
Latent heating of the core is accelerating.

What quad are they recording that? Southwest?

[eastcoastFL]

HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...




7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Moving: ENE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[GCANE]

Dammmmn!
Nearly 90mm/hr rain rate.
I think that is the highest I have ever seen.
Latent heating of the core is accelerating.

What quad are they recording that? Southwest?

NW

[WeatherBoy2000]

Has anyone looked at the latest ships shear forecast? I don't know if I'm reading it properly but to me it looks like the heavier shear won't hit Milton until he's onshore.

Indeed, the last ships shear forecast has 26 kt at the +36 timestamp and 39 kt at the +48 timestamp just after landfall. Shear will most likely be in roughly the same direction as Milton so you can take another 10 kt or so from that value. Relative shear might thus only be 15 - 30 kt at landfall, much lower than the 40 - 50 kt we saw a few days ago. I can elaborate further, but I think we all understand that it isn't good news.

Ya, no bueno. Add that to Very warm SST/OHC and I don't think it will have the major debilitating factors we are hoping for. The west coast is still staring down the barrel of an extremely powerful major hurricane. Shear forecasts are always a crapshoot so who knows maybe we will get lucky.

There's also the chance that models could be overdoing the extent/rate of weakening as well. This was seen with Beryl earlier this year, models generally anticipated much quicker weakening due to the high shear but instead it was a long and slow process in which she held onto cat 4 status forever.

[syfr]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

Just about all of the energy not in Milton but on planet earth is derived from the sun. What sense does it make to discount high energy events from the sun? We analyze every nuance, I feel like this is a built in bias unfairly levied.

But it's not unfairly levied, science is inherently skeptical of correlation>causation.

It's an observation that might correlate at times, but until the effect is understood, it's an interesting high tech variant of a groundhog.

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte
Vedra Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of
Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to
Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte
Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River.

[GCANE]

Almost back to pinhole
Recon reports eye at 12nm diameter

[tolakram]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

Just about all of the energy not in Milton but on planet earth is derived from the sun. What sense does it make to discount high energy events from the sun? We analyze every nuance, I feel like this is a built in bias unfairly levied.

But it's not unfairly levied, science is inherently skeptical of correlation>causation.

It's an observation that might correlate at times, but until the effect is understood, it's an interesting high tech variant of a groundhog.

Agree, but repeating observations over and over is sound and not harmful in my opinion, so far anyway. I think some are too quick to jump to causation when it's repeated 1, 2, even 3 times. Proving a theory is a LOT harder than that.

[SecondBreakfast]

 https://x.com/darrenjwright/status/1843447839336395051



Wild video of Milton in the distance from Cancun

[drewschmaltz]

We need to caveat the space weather data. It's all real data but the impacts on strengthening cyclones is less dramatic than it may be portrayed. I see a few posts asking about the "timing" of strengthening based on peak geomagnetic activity and that bothers me a bit.

Just about all of the energy not in Milton but on planet earth is derived from the sun. What sense does it make to discount high energy events from the sun? We analyze every nuance, I feel like this is a built in bias unfairly levied.

But it's not unfairly levied, science is inherently skeptical of correlation>causation.

It's an observation that might correlate at times, but until the effect is understood, it's an interesting high tech variant of a groundhog.

Understood and agreed. But nothing about that is bothersome. Rather, it's fascinating. In all fairness if that's your barometer for bothersome, it's bothersome that anyone here thinks something occuring with a storm is more likely than the nhc's consensus. The most likely scenario is and always will be their forecast.

So, embrace the curiosity. And you know, don't be too quick to discount the effects of the most powerful events in our solar system.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still a monster. I'm now under a hurricane warning on the east coast. Even though it'll be weaker the current track is over my house.

[aspen]

I plotted Milton's extrapolated minimum pressures and fit them to a 6th order Polynomial in Excel to get a sense of how much lower its peak pressure may have been. I had to exclude the center passes from this morning's pair of flights because it resulted in a weaker fit, especially near peak intensity. The current fit is still too high around Milton's peak. Even so, it indicates that the 22z center pass occurred right after a peak that wasn't much lower than the what was observed (898.6mb extrapolated, 897mb corrected), just like Crazy suggested. Therefore, I think 895mb and 160kt is a good estimate for Milton's peak around 20-21z yesterday.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Moving: ENE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

NHC down again to 145

[Pasmorade]

7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8
Location: 22.5°N 88.8°W
Moving: ENE at 12 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

NHC down again to 145

Well, it just completed an EWRC which ravaged it for the past 12 hours, so I'm pretty sure that's a likely NHC estimate for the storm's intensity