ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3041 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:45 am

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:Has there ever been a storm that went sub-900 mbar on two separate occasions? It looks like there is a small window for restrengthening but it is still a long way off its peak intensity.


No, at least not in the Atlantic. The closest one is hurricane Allen which has a 899 mb and a 909 mb peak.
2 likes   

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#3042 Postby Michele B » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:47 am

johngaltfla wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
caneman wrote:
And C in the Tampa Bay region.


Contraflow really needs to be implemented in the Northern part of the state, with on lane south for Tankers and emergency vehicles. The traffic is a nightmare and gas stations empty :cry:


Actually our DOT did a very in depth study on this.

Contraflow actually made the traffic worse and obstructed necessary supplies coming into to the regions impacted for pre and post storm preparation.

Kudos to them for actually analyzing every storm since Andrew and validating the findings.


The locals will find surface roads off the Interstate to move on. May also be gas available there, since it won't be highly trafficked.
3 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2125
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3043 Postby Kazmit » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:48 am

Steve H. wrote:Milton is looking pretty ragged this morning. Not sure if he will regain his previous form. But that could change in an hour :roll:

Will it regain its previous sub-900 mb form? Maybe not. But keep things in perspective. Even if it only peaks again at say 140kts, that is still an insanely strong storm.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3044 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:49 am

ADT calls for a pinhole again. Latest eye diameter was 12 nm, curious if recon will now also find a pinhole eye.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 121020 UTC
Lat : 22:28:47 N Lon : 88:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 916.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
1 likes   

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2125
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3045 Postby Kazmit » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:54 am

Its new eye is still so small. Wonder if we’ll see another EWRC after today’s strengthening episode.
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3046 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:55 am

Milton looking weaker this morning, tapping into some colder waters.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3047 Postby Visioen » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:55 am

Not possible without a pinhole.

Proceeds to develop pinhole.
11 likes   

User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3048 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:55 am

I don’t think Rita’s eye would have been considered pinhole while at her sub-900 peak intensity, right?
Last edited by Buck on Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1174
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3049 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:56 am

AutoPenalti wrote:tapping into some colder waters.


Not accurate.
Last edited by Buck on Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
2 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3050 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:56 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Milton looking weaker this morning, tapping into some colder waters.


Inflow from the Yuk choking him out a bit.
2 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2587
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3051 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:59 am

Recon planes made the pass again.

AF309
928.4 mb extrapolated with 14 kt winds nearby -> 927 mb
129 kt FL

NOAA3
928.4 mb extrapolated with 24 kt winds nearby -> 926 mb
144 kt FL, only the eastern part, more data will follow soon

Based on these passes I'd put the current intensity at 927mb/130kt.
1 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 540
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3052 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:59 am

This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3053 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:00 am

So many bad calls, just like yesterday in my opinion. :lol:

Looks the same as it did yesterday just before RI, I still see a little junk in the eye but I'd say low 900's by this afternoon.
12 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3054 Postby Frank P » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:01 am

drewschmaltz wrote:Euro bringing it in even slower. About to research speed vs surge. I'm guessing no bueno. Crazy on how the models are so close to the mouth of the bay. The shear + speed + change in direction its going to be broadly devastating but individually a nail biter. You know. From your hotel because you evacuated.

... Written from Orlando. I really should be bringing things in.

Slow moving storms pile up more water over time, I would image one moving faster would not have as much time to pile up water.
1 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3055 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:02 am

7 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145630
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3056 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:05 am

NOAA plane circles eye.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3057 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:06 am

Clearcloudz wrote:This question has been on my mind for some time so I'm going to go ahead and ask in this forum. Most professionals say to evacuate storm surge which is very important and I completely understand that but why do professionals also not focus on freshwater flooding that could occur from this storm. Some models are showing 24 inches of rain in a very short amount of time and I believe people will be caught off guard by the freshwater flooding from this storm. A suggestion could be just like the NHC used potential storm surge maps maybe the NWS can use potential fresh water flooding maps. From recent storms like Helene a lot people who were asked said that if they knew it would flood like this they would evacuate.


Your local officials should, the NHC focuses on the storm, but also mentions surge and rain. If you read the weather service messages from Helene you will see all local offices screaming about how bad it was going to be. I think the focus is there and where it should be.
4 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3058 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:06 am

cycloneye wrote:NOAA plane circles eye.

https://i.imgur.com/vV6C6d1.png


Drone launch maybe?
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2362
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3059 Postby underthwx » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:06 am

kevin wrote:ADT calls for a pinhole again. Latest eye diameter was 12 nm, curious if recon will now also find a pinhole eye.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 121020 UTC
Lat : 22:28:47 N Lon : 88:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 916.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.3C Cloud Region Temp : -77.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Records are always subject to be broken.....and Milton has proven itself to be a candidate to do that....winds are now 145 mph....down from 180 mph yesterday....but Milton's energy and momentum are deadly and destructive...be it 145 mph...or 180 mph....I believe that the message to residents in the great state of Florida is clear....and residents are taking action...as advised by local and statewide emergency management officials..my sister who is a nurse....and lives in Tampa...is among those who have heeded the warnings of local and state officials....the NHC....and of course the experts right here...on Storm 2K.....i need to thank all of you for your dedication and knowledge....which has helped my family make decisions....based on your analysis of Milton...many of you are yourselves in harms way....but you remain here....providing vital information for the masses....and that is a remarkable thing.....well done!...
5 likes   

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 145 mph / 929 mbs

#3060 Postby xironman » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:07 am

Buck wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:tapping into some colder waters.


Not accurate.


Actually there is a lower heat content pocket just north of the Yucatan. It has been mentioned before when storms cross the peninsula it takes them a while to get going again. The storm will soon be moving into a more favorable environment.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
HEAT CONTENT 23 27 39 65 50 23 5 43 19 16 13 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 likes   


Return to “2024”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest