ATL: MILTON - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.

The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.

Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR
MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN
SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.

The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida
sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it
approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood
threat.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central
pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through
the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved
since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a
10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB,
with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and
145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with
maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is
entering Milton as we speak.

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of
Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about
24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not
be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane
when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models,
since these models should have a better handle on a potential
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could
occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be
interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical
transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a
very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely
follow orders from their local emergency management officials.
Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today.
Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive
hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with
destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES


Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating
Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes,
flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable
observations. Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane
had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt
and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft
observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so
the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt. This
is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that
Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the
initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt. The system is being
steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Milton should move
northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed,
with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in
24 hours or so. Thereafter, the system should turn
east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern
Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast. The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west
coast of Florida. Although an expected increase in vertical wind
shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore. Also,
the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as
Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy
and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper side of the intensity model guidance. After Milton moves
over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming
embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by 72 hours.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the
time the center moves over Florida. In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.
Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall
will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious
situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from
their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed tonight. Milton has the potential
to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for
west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on
Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while
it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal
boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY
THIS AFTERNOON...
...PREPARATIONS, INCLUDING EVACUATION IF TOLD TO DO SO, SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
advisory.

Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.

Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.

We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at
12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30
nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact
track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the
Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists
across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given
the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where
landfall will occur.

Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very
serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow
orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations
and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of
hours.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The
time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly
coming to a close.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

12 Noon.

LOCATION...26.0N 84.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn
towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed
later this evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to
stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready
in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio,
charged cell phone and flashlight handy.

The next update will be with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT
(1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING...
...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...

Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland
across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph (109
km/h) was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach.

There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the
Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be
ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an
interior room not prone to flooding.

The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM EDT
(2100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

[cycloneye]

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES



Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a
sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.

Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at
about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the
hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very
soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this
evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida
and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic.

Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major
hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this
evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent
of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the
northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to
southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are
likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south,
regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be
a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall
location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still
exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of
Florida given the size of the storm.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already
beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model
guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in
about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the
new NHC forecast.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the
surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise
rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the
backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as
the center makes landfall.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area.
Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are
expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of
the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and
early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an
interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves
across the central Florida Peninsula.

3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening
hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior
room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move
onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg
where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in
place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread
the region.

A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph
(114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway
Fishing Pier.

The next update will be the intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT
(0000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
830 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA....
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has
made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west
coast of Florida.

A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156
km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing
Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport.

The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Papin/Brown/Mahoney/Camposano

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar
imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that
Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of
Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central
Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated
a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease
in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90
kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds
at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of
extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in
an hour at St. Petersburg.

Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or
060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical
mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida
peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn
generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the
southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics.
The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model
consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days.

The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of
Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity
while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a
frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded
within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that
Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its
strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic,
dissipating after 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along
portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and
southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday
morning.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially
in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida
Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning
area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to
take shelter in an interior room and away from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing
significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center
of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and
the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern
Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest
winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida.

Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the
models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal
characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast
shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The
extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in
about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard
hurricane models for transitioning systems.

The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just
to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the
east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal,
taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south
of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster
than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
models.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the
coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia,
where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern
Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away
from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula
through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi