ATL: MILTON - Models

[NDG]

Wobble watching will be huge if it's coming into either bradenton or st pete. But, model trends south have been ongoing for over 24 hours now. I wouldn't be least bit surprised if it goes venice or port charlotte.

48-36 hrs prior to Ian make landfall models like the ICON were already pointing to Port Charlotte/Ft Myers after pointing to Tampa.

[tolakram]

Easiest to show on the parent view, related to the discussion thread but not putting a model run in there. HAFS-A had the southern wobble as intensification began again.

[NDG]

I have been very impressed at HAFS-A in the short term, it has been doing very well within 24 hrs range. I will be paying a lot of attention to it starting on tonight's run.

[NDG]

For those wondering about the HR regional models. Here is their latest for landfall.

[BobHarlem]

12z ukmet maps out to be about the same as 0z, landfall bradenton, out by Cocoa Beach

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2024
HURRICANE MILTON ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 88.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142024
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.10.2024 22.7N 88.6W INTENSE
00UTC 09.10.2024 23.3N 87.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.10.2024 24.8N 85.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2024 26.4N 84.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2024 27.6N 82.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2024 28.3N 79.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2024 28.4N 76.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2024 28.4N 74.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2024 30.0N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2024 31.0N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2024 32.5N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2024 31.9N 58.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2024 31.2N 54.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2024 29.4N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[StPeteMike]

:uarrow: I have been very impressed at HAFS-A in the short term, it has been doing very well within 24 hrs range. I will be paying a lot of attention to it starting on tonight's run.

Going to really be cutting it close on that slight right turn before Tampa Bay with HAFS-A.

[CronkPSU]

For those wondering about the HR regional models. Here is their latest for landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/UjlmIJ0.png
https://i.imgur.com/WSAXJl8.png

Thanks for sharing these, could you also post the next few frames for those of us in Central Florida

[NDG]

For those wondering about the HR regional models. Here is their latest for landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/UjlmIJ0.png
https://i.imgur.com/WSAXJl8.png

Thanks for sharing these, could you also post the next few frames for those of us in Central Florida

Here's the full 12z HRRR and NAM 3km.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

[Flwxguy86]

Interesting that if it follows the path it's on now, It will pass directly over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.

[Jr0d]

I have been keep a close eye on the 200 mb models to get a better idea when Milton will take that NE turn and turn back east.

Looking at the trend 24 hours from now, the steering currents seem slightly weaker compared to yesterdays model guidance. This would suggest Milton making landfall a little further south, just my amateur opinion with some -removed- bias b/c I do not want to see Tampa Bay get the worst surge.

Current forecast (valid 6Z Wed):





24 hours ago( 6Z Wed ):

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS


12z GEFS... Almost all below Tampa now...

[BobHarlem]

tad right/south on 12z HAFS-B to St. Pete Beach (was Redington Beach at 6z) exits by Titusville/Playalinda Beach

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/4y07wns8/06-GEFS.jpg [/url]
06z GEFS

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/v82VG2fW/GEFS.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS... Almost all below Tampa now...

majority of gefs ensembles are now south of tampa!

[Woofde]

tad right/south on 12z HAFS-B to St. Pete Beach (was Redington Beach at 6z)

The North eyewall would have the meat in that situation. *If* this happened as depicted it would spare the southern half of the bay from the *wind*.

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy. Definitely raising some eye brows here in Northern Broward and Palm Beach.

[BobHarlem]

12Z HAFS-A also shifts to St. Pete Beach, exit Cape Canaveral Notable it showed the south dip from this morning also.

[BobHarlem]

12z HMON goes in around Clearwater exits south of New Smyrna Beach (Oak Hill) this left/north shift from the 6z.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Interesting that if it follows the path it's on now, It will pass directly over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.

That is a horrible track for Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and Bradenton. You just hate to see it. Thats over a million people equally effected

[NDG]

Six runs in a row that HAFS-A shows landfall somewhere in Pinellas County, latest is southern tip of the County.

[Flwxguy86]

Interesting that if it follows the path it's on now, It will pass directly over the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.

That is a horrible track for Tampa, St Pete, Sarasota and Bradenton. You just hate to see it. Thats over a million people equally effected

oh I know,I don't want to wish ill will on people further south but that would funnel so much surge into Tampa bay, especially towards downtown and north of the bay. Probably destroy Macdill AFB which sticks out into the bay and is at a low level, which honestly might give the Air Force a reason to move central command and leave Macdill, They've been wanting to since forever but the city wants them here for the economy.