ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843678570943762865

Is Brian using a distant radar presentation of the MLC to determine position?

Not sure but these wobbles will sure matter as it nears FL which not even the NHC can predict with great accuracy coming at this angle in my opinion.

Milton's been wobbling around all day - earlier today it was actually north of the forecast points. Now he's gone south of it.

[Hurricane2022]

Oh great, another one. I was hoping this disturbance would fizzle out when models started down trending a few days ago.

On the bright side, it is unlikely to have anywhere close to the same scale of impacts as Helene.

[boca]

Call me crazy but I'm seeing a distinct jog to the southeast

The longer it goes east the further south down the west coast Milton is going to hit.

[GCANE]

Lightning has picked up exponentially in the last half hour.
What happens when this gets over the Loop Current?

[NONAME]

Lightning has picked up exponentially in the last half hour.
What happens when this gets over the Loop Current?

How long until it is over the Loop Current and how long will it be over it once it is there?

[Zonacane]

Lightning has picked up exponentially in the last half hour.
What happens when this gets over the Loop Current?

We’ll get a second sub-900 peak

[sicktght311]

People need to continue to put this stuff into perspective. So many people on here and in the media are all celebrating "oh its going to weaken before landfall", which is all well and good, if this was a category 1 or 2 now and then weakening to TS. This is one of the strongest TCs on record, and even moderate weakening before landfall will still have devastating consequences. If this was a Category 3 from start to finish, people would and still should be sounding the alarms. Dont count yourselves safe just because a historic category 5 *might* weaken slightly. It might not even weaken that much at all

Also, people need to stop watching pressures and wind speeds of each Hurricane Hunter run and start sounding all clears. Watch the pressure, watch the wind, but also pay attention to IR. He's wrapping up and deepening around the eye again as we speak, so theres no chance hes done putting on his show yet

I haven't detected an atmosphere of all clear....either here...or with the NHC....as for the media....I dont watch....my information that I pay attention to...is fact based....and yes...Milton is a dangerous cyclone to say the least....and as a result....residents are heeding warnings and leaving the areas that are most vulnerable to Milton's fury.....please accept my comment as respectful to you....peace....

Its a reminder to some folks here who are quick to comment "its weakening", as well as people in the media, to look at things from a larger perspective, and consider that it can play with people's lives. People are impressionable, dumb, and short sighted. Everyone tries to balance risk vs optimism, but its always just a reminder that the only optimistic way to mitigate risk is to avoid it. If its dangerous now, treat it as if it will be just as dangerous in 48 hours

[tropicwatch]

VDM:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 15:59Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024
Storm Name: Milton (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 27

A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 15:28:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.50N 88.51W
B. Center Fix Location: 127 statute miles (204 km) to the NNE (33°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,474m (8,117ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 927mb (27.38 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 17kts (From the N at 20mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 142kts (163.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the W (260°) of center fix at 15:26:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 345° at 131kts (From the NNW at 150.8mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) of center fix at 15:25:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 120kts (138.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNE (23°) of center fix at 15:34:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 111° at 119kts (From the ESE at 136.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the NNE (26°) of center fix at 15:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 131kts (~ 150.8mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the WSW (251°) from the flight level center at 15:25:00Z
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[Highteeld]

Dropsonde supports 925 mb

[TomballEd]

Wobbles might save Tampa from a worst case scenario. Eye is warming and pressure is dropping.

Over/under on new minimum pressure- I'm thinking 912 mb.

[chaser1]

Perhaps a partial cyclonic turn or track adjustment?

[Zonacane]

850mb RH is 97% GCANE

[tolakram]

Perhaps a partial cyclonic turn or track adjustment?

As I posted in the models thread, this southward movement, or wobble, was forecast as it starts to strengthen again.

[Mike33534]

Remember all the complaints just 3 weeks ago saying this season was a total bust?

Yeah and I was specifically gloating on here about Tampa not getting hit by Helene and how Tampabro's were undefeated.

I still hold out hope the Tampa Forcefield will activate but I feel like i may have disturbed the universe with that comment

Depends what you consider a victory. All of Tampa isn't Kennedy Blvd and soho area. A lot of people live in lutz/carollwood and the further this goes south, the less likely they will even see hurricane gusts

[eastcoastFL]

Call me crazy but I'm seeing a distinct jog to the southeast

The longer it goes east the further south down the west coast Milton is going to hit.

Def looks like some south wobbles. I don’t want to see that.

[jlauderdal]

Remember all the complaints just 3 weeks ago saying this season was a total bust?

Remember Floridians here saying October is our busiest month, I remember that vivdly since I was one of those posting.

[TomballEd]

Call me crazy but I'm seeing a distinct jog to the southeast

The longer it goes east the further south down the west coast Milton is going to hit.

Def looks like some south wobbles. I don’t want to see that.

In the end, all the wobbles add up to the track. Maybe this hits far enough S of TPA to spare a surge bigger than Helene. Maybe. I wouldn't be staying behind in a mando evac zone.

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/BMcNoldy/status/1843678570943762865

Is Brian using a distant radar presentation of the MLC to determine position?

McNoldy, Hazleton and Fischer watch wobbles, they live in SE Florida.

[GCANE]

Lightning has picked up exponentially in the last half hour.
What happens when this gets over the Loop Current?

How long until it is over the Loop Current and how long will it be over it once it is there?

Here's a map of the Loop Current
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dhos/alt ... ents%20are

Here's the forecast track
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... Table.html

IMHO should hit the Loop Current 00Z and be over it thru a good part of the morning.

[Sciencerocks]