ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tailgater33]

I’m not reading back 20 pages to see someone posted this already but Milton seems to drop farther south while deepening, also it’s probably in the coolest waters in the GOM then it’ll hit the loop current region. Come on shear, don’t let us down.

[kevin]

Since we're wobble watching anyways: the south component seems to have disappeared in the last 20 minutes of floater imagery, now pretty much due east.

[SFLcane]

Wxman always says these storms from this angle more times then not find a way to come south of Tampa. Have to keep watching down to Fort myers

[GCANE]

Eyedrop
850mb is back to saturation.
No sign of a forthcoming EWRC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 8-1530.png

[chaser1]

Perhaps a partial cyclonic turn or track adjustment?

As I posted in the models thread, this southward movement, or wobble, was forecast as it starts to strengthen again.

I probably would have read that had I been keeping up with posts from the models thread.Thanks for repeating that here nonetheless.

[Flwxguy86]

By overachieving, Milton has caused complacency. Now people are saying it is "only" a C3. Maybe Milton will come back and bite them in the butt.

I agree, I hope maybe it loses a bit of it's bite because I'll be riding it out in the middle of Pinellas county in Clearwater, If they track stays as it is now, I will go through the Northern eyewall of Milton, Which is exciting but kinda nerve wracking too. I am not worried about the place I will be staying just not looking forward to the damage and possible days or weeks without power. Although I am not sure my primary residence in Oldsmar will see any storm surge or not but I am not going to stay here and find out that hard way. I've been through one other cat 3 in my lifetime and that was Fran in 1996 I believe was the year but that was a long time ago and all I can really remember about that experience was how loud it was, sounded like someone was hammering the side of the house constantly.

[technikal]

People need to continue to put this stuff into perspective. So many people on here and in the media are all celebrating "oh its going to weaken before landfall", which is all well and good, if this was a category 1 or 2 now and then weakening to TS. This is one of the strongest TCs on record, and even moderate weakening before landfall will still have devastating consequences. If this was a Category 3 from start to finish, people would and still should be sounding the alarms. Dont count yourselves safe just because a historic category 5 *might* weaken slightly. It might not even weaken that much at all

Also, people need to stop watching pressures and wind speeds of each Hurricane Hunter run and start sounding all clears. Watch the pressure, watch the wind, but also pay attention to IR. He's wrapping up and deepening around the eye again as we speak, so theres no chance hes done putting on his show yet

I haven't detected an atmosphere of all clear....either here...or with the NHC....as for the media....I dont watch....my information that I pay attention to...is fact based....and yes...Milton is a dangerous cyclone to say the least....and as a result....residents are heeding warnings and leaving the areas that are most vulnerable to Milton's fury.....please accept my comment as respectful to you....peace....

Its a reminder to some folks here who are quick to comment "its weakening", as well as people in the media, to look at things from a larger perspective, and consider that it can play with people's lives. People are impressionable, dumb, and short sighted. Everyone tries to balance risk vs optimism, but its always just a reminder that the only optimistic way to mitigate risk is to avoid it. If its dangerous now, treat it as if it will be just as dangerous in 48 hours

While I agree everyone should still treat it like the threat it is, the forecasted weakening on models like HAFS-B is significant (like +40mb) and that should be communicated to avoid sensationalism. Yes, it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever, but we know with a pretty high degree of confidence that it won’t make landfall at that intensity. It’s in the public interest to (cautiously) let that be known.

[CronkPSU]

I’m not reading back 20 pages to see someone posted this already but Milton seems to drop farther south while deepening, also it’s probably in the coolest waters in the GOM then it’ll hit the loop current region. Come on shear, don’t let us down.

What is the latest SHIPs and shear forecast? Earlier this morning it seemed to be less than expected around landfall than we had thought yesterday

[tolakram]

I’m not reading back 20 pages to see someone posted this already but Milton seems to drop farther south while deepening, also it’s probably in the coolest waters in the GOM then it’ll hit the loop current region. Come on shear, don’t let us down.

Where are people coming up with this cool water idea? Before the Asheville site went down this area reported some of the warmest.

[Blown Away]

Since we're wobble watching anyways: the south component seems to have disappeared in the last 20 minutes of floater imagery, now pretty much due east.

Looks still slight S of E...

[bythetrack]

Hey all, sitting in Sebring . Guess all the orchids are going inside for a couple of days. We have around 40, 200 year old oak trees on our property. Clean up is always fun . Been through 135 mph here a couple of years ago so we know the drill. I lived on the coast for years and after the 2004 season moved inland. Right now Im glad I did. Everyone stay safe and pay attention. This too shall pass, Roger

[tolakram]

I haven't detected an atmosphere of all clear....either here...or with the NHC....as for the media....I dont watch....my information that I pay attention to...is fact based....and yes...Milton is a dangerous cyclone to say the least....and as a result....residents are heeding warnings and leaving the areas that are most vulnerable to Milton's fury.....please accept my comment as respectful to you....peace....

Its a reminder to some folks here who are quick to comment "its weakening", as well as people in the media, to look at things from a larger perspective, and consider that it can play with people's lives. People are impressionable, dumb, and short sighted. Everyone tries to balance risk vs optimism, but its always just a reminder that the only optimistic way to mitigate risk is to avoid it. If its dangerous now, treat it as if it will be just as dangerous in 48 hours

While I agree everyone should still treat it like the threat it is, the forecasted weakening on models like HAFS-B is significant (like +40mb) and that should be communicated to avoid sensationalism. Yes, it’s one of the most powerful hurricanes ever, but we know with a pretty high degree of confidence that it won’t make landfall at that intensity. It’s in the public interest to (cautiously) let that be known.

I disagree, unless we can agree on what weakening means. Less surge, less wind, less overall impact? The mission statement of the NHC is: To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards through global outreach.

How does mentioning the barometric pressure or wind speed of a storm is weakening while the most dangerous part of the storm, the surge, is not fit into that statement. Katrina was weakening. The NHC doesn't report on the whims of every model.

[TomballEd]

By overachieving, Milton has caused complacency. Now people are saying it is "only" a C3. Maybe Milton will come back and bite them in the butt.

I agree, I hope maybe it loses a bit of it's bite because I'll be riding it out in the middle of Pinellas county in Clearwater, If they track stays as it is now, I will go through the Northern eyewall of Milton, Which is exciting but kinda nerve wracking too. I am not worried about the place I will be staying just not looking forward to the damage and possible days or weeks without power. Although I am not sure my primary residence in Oldsmar will see any storm surge or not but I am not going to stay here and find out that hard way. I've been through one other cat 3 in my lifetime and that was Fran in 1996 I believe was the year but that was a long time ago and all I can really remember about that experience was how loud it was, sounded like someone was hammering the side of the house constantly.

Katrina was only a 3 at landfall. A high end Cat 4 a day from landfall will bring a big surge even if it has weakened. See also Ike, just a Cat 2, and big surge.

[AutoPenalti]

Wobble watching this early will get your eyes strained. Trochoidal wobbles are normal in TC's this intense. Extrapolating it just has this heading due East as forecast.

[SFLcane]

Wobble watching this early will get your eyes strained. Trochoidal wobbles are normal in TC's this intense. Extrapolating it just has this heading due East as forecast.

Yup reminds me of wilma though the motion looks more ENE to me. Can't stress it enough how tricky it is to pin point a landfall in west fl coming at an angle like this.

[GCANE]

Here on out, I am estimating roughly 50% of its track will be over the Loop Current.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Flwxguy86]

Since a lot of people are talking about wobbles, Some of you might be aware of it but if you aren't, The Local news here WFLA has a 24/7 Live wobble tracker, and it has had some pretty crazy wobbles to the south and north which could definitely effect the track down the line but if you are interested in tracking the wobbles that's an interesting and informative way to watch.

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/live-wobble-tracker-changes-in-hurricane-miltons-path-could-have-huge-impacts/

[underthwx]

[strike][/strike]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/bwRi4Ev.gif

Great image!.....look at how the convection fires up around the center.....amazing look at Milton....

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/dominickmatthew/status/1843679036792549688