ATL: MILTON - Models

[jlauderdal]

Soon will be down to Lake o if this keeps up. 12 ECM ensembles

https://i.postimg.cc/yW4K0QK8/bbb.png

You have had your kit ready since June 1?

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please. I don't want someone glancing at this thread and thinking Tampa is in the clear because suddenly we love the euro ensembles and dislike the models we used to like.

[Flwxguy86]

I'm a little confused ... the most recent runs (12z) of the models utilized by the NHC (GFS, HAFS, Euro) all show Milton basically dead on top of Tampa Bay.

Why are there rumblings of Tampa being in the "all clear"?

I don't know because I mean we still have an entire day where it could course correct and I think when it's the 24 hours before the landfall the models because a little less useful and it's better to go look at satellite and see what your eyes tell you. I know by tomorrow afternoon I personally won't be focusing on the models anymore.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

our you know whats are puckered so tight in tampa right now you have no idea. The shift. Is it a real trend?

Will Tampa bros continue the winning streak? My anxiety is somewhat lifted for a second but i must collect myself and wait.

I am prepared and ready but a move like south that would be welcome and spare us

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Stay on topic please. I don't want someone glancing at this thread and thinking Tampa is in the clear because suddenly we love the euro ensembles and dislike the models we used to like.

well said

[BobHarlem]

Stealing this image from the other thread But it's left of the HAFS A/B point now. NE Movement has resumed.

[Lance]

Stealing this image from the other thread But it's left of the HAFS A/B point now. NE Movement has resumed.

https://i.ibb.co/wyJzSMx/Milton-16.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/M3Pltqp.png

Well, that's interesting. And makes sense, since these things don't travel in straight lines and move around. That would be kinda bad in the long run.

[skillz305]

Just finished prepping here in vero... and wow.... glad I did.... South shift is real....

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1843746333175525482

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1843746333175525482

one run. Lets see if it continues to 0000 and 0006 if this is the case. I highly doubt it.

These things windshield back and forth 15 miles at a time

[CronkPSU]

Is the new icon out yet? I know it always shows up around the same time as the advisories and GFC a half hour after that

(I know the models schedule more than my own school classes schedule…welp)

[Flwxguy86]

Is the new icon out yet? I know it always shows up around the same time as the advisories and GFC a half hour after that

(I know the models schedule more than my own school classes schedule…welp)

It just started running now, it looks to be south of Tampa but its not far enough out yet to know for sure. Update: Icon still bring it in to tampa..

[lsuhurricane]

No change on the 18z ICON landfall location.

[mantis83]

Is the new icon out yet? I know it always shows up around the same time as the advisories and GFC a half hour after that

(I know the models schedule more than my own school classes schedule…welp)

It just started running now, it looks to be south of Tampa but its not far enough out yet to know for sure. Update: Icon still bring it in to tampa..

icon could score a coup.......

[ronjon]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

[StormPyrate]

The 4PM advisary track went south

[Pelicane]

No change on the 18z ICON landfall location.

https://i.ibb.co/V3qy3mt/13-km-ICON-Southeast-US-MSLP.gif

It exits further NE once it leaves Florida, but the landfall does look largely the same. It goes right through the bay as it comes ashore.

[Tekken_Guy]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

The ICON seems to be an outlier at this point that’s behind the curve.

[TR772]

For the east coasters, the cone has moved about 25 miles south from Jensen Beach to just on the north edge of Jupiter.

[CronkPSU]

18Z ICON...the all clear in Tampa was premature!

The ICON seems to be an outlier at this point that’s behind the curve.

weren't the last GFS and Euro basically this same landfall spot?

new GFS is 20 minutes so we shall see