ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3521 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:54 pm

Am thinking 906mb and 165 mph
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3522 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:54 pm

Charleswachal wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png



He got up to a 7.7 earlier when at his previous peak

It wasn't the final ADT that made it that high
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3523 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:54 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3524 Postby skillz305 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:54 pm

Cat 5 - 167mph
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:flag:Hurricanes: Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Katrina 2005 - Wilma 2005 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3525 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:55 pm

Frank P wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
Frank P wrote:910 mb winds 160 mph... bank it..


All the pressure drops people are talking about and it's only going to increase 5 mph? that doesn't seem right.

I only missed it last time by I think about 3 mb... thinking it will take time for the winds to catch up with the pressure... I just wanted to be the outlier just in case since no one else was... going to find out soon though


You will probably be right. I forgot that winds take awhile to catch up to the pressure drops
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3526 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:56 pm

This part actually scared me :eek:

...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3527 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png


Highest CI's observed in the Atlantic basin in the last 10 years.

Milton (2024) = 7.7 (1st peak)
Milton (2024) = 7.4 (2nd peak)

Irma (2017) = 7.3
Eta (2024) = 7.3
Michael (2018) = 7.2
Maria (2017) = 7.1
Lorenzo (2019) = 7.1
Iota (2020) = 7.0
Matthew (2016) = 7.0
Beryl (2024) = 6.9
Ian (2022) = 6.9
Lee (2023) = 6.8
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3528 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:56 pm

Agree with them going back to Cat 5 with the much improved satellite appearance and T# around 7.3-7.6.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3529 Postby Charleswachal » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:56 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Charleswachal wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png



He got up to a 7.7 earlier when at his previous peak

It wasn't the final ADT that made it that high


Code: Select all

2024OCT08 031020 [b] 7.7[/b]  897.8 161.0  [b]7.7 7.8 7.8[/b]  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -28.65 -79.73  EYE/P  -99 IR  22.4   21.80   89.92  ARCHER  GOES16 30.5

it was a 7.7 final number with a 7.8 raw number and a 7.8 adjusted number
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3530 Postby Stormgodess » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:57 pm

SFLcane wrote:LIVE WOBBLE TRACKER: Hurricane Milton’s wobbles off path, could have huge impacts

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-t ... pacts/amp/



Is there a LIVE Wobble Tracker? :double:
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3531 Postby WaveBreaking » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:57 pm

Going with 890-895 mbar and 150-165kts
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3532 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:57 pm

Kermit is in the air and halfway there already. We will have double low-level recon for the next few hours. Sit back, grab your favorite beverage, and F5 like crazy!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3533 Postby loon » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:57 pm



this is pretty crazy to see parroted all over the internet right now.. HAFS-A had this exact track.. when its at the corner of 23 north and 87 it will be exactly where it was supposed to be.

Its like the people I disagree with have converged to wish it away from Tampa or something (understandable but dangerous game to play)
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3534 Postby caneseddy » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:58 pm

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt)
. Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC
, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term.
Last edited by caneseddy on Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3535 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:58 pm

from the 5 PM discussion..

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3536 Postby Frank P » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:59 pm

Dudes its 918 mb and winds of 165 mph.. per NHC
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 155 mph / 923 mbs

#3537 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:59 pm

kevin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png


Highest CI's observed in the Atlantic basin in the last 10 years.

Milton (2024) = 7.7 (1st peak)
Milton (2024) = 7.4 (2nd peak)

Irma (2017) = 7.3
Eta (2024) = 7.3
Michael (2018) = 7.2
Maria (2017) = 7.1
Lorenzo (2019) = 7.1
Iota (2020) = 7.0
Matthew (2016) = 7.0
Beryl (2024) = 6.9
Ian (2022) = 6.9
Lee (2023) = 6.8

The 7.7 was from where it was CDO related, not EYE related
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3538 Postby wx98 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:00 pm

Recon is imminent but:

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 004020 UTC
Lat : 21:50:24 N Lon : 90:21:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 909.6mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -51.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3539 Postby psyclone » Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:01 pm

Good tick south on the 5pm
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 918 mbs

#3540 Postby fsucory08 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:01 pm

Looking at the updated windspeed probabilities, Hurricane force probability for Ft. Pierce doubled to 25%.
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