ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Oh my!!!

[aspen]

2nd peak incoming, if this thing is really sitting around 900 mb, we are in big trouble.

Maybe yesterday’s 12z HAFS-B forecasting an 884mb second peak for today wasn’t bonkers after all…

[ConvergenceZone]

Updated Live Potential Surge map.

[FireRat]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

Yup, and I hope they're right!
Definitely, they don't want to cause panic... but having a potentially sub 900 mb monster hearding to land just 36 hours before landfall makes you really consider it. Hope this dang thing can weaken enough to lessen impacts... regardless, we're going to see a massive surge

[gailwarning]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

Sadly, what happened in W NC wasn't anticipated either. Let's hope Milton decides to relax a bit on his way to the coast.

[Horn1991]

Maybe I just missed it, but is there a *Sticky* for live news, advisories, etc?

[ElectricStorm]

Both planes might be having communication issues, neither have updated in a while

Edit: NOAA2 just updated

[aspen]

NHC updated to 905mb/145kt, an odd under-estimate given the available data (probably closer to 900-903mb and 150-155 kt).

[sponger]

Rooting for Tampa to avoid the worse but terrified of every beach community to Venice. Saw a clip of a journalist in Bradenton and the debris from Helene was still stacked seven feet high.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

Sadly, what happened in W NC wasn't anticipated either. Let's hope Milton decides to relax a bit on his way to the coast.

NHC warned of historic flood potential:

The major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta and western North Carolina, including Asheville. Recent rainfall in these areas, especially the southern Appalachians, have left the grounds saturated and the river tributaries running high. Additional rainfall from Helene will exacerbate the existing flood risk. Extreme rainfall rates (i.e., torrential downpour) across the mountainous terrain of the southern Appalachians will likely inundate communities in its path with flash floods, landslides, and cause extensive river and stream flooding.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/commu ... -even-well

[xironman]

I don't see a reason for intensification to stop in the short term

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1843750157785194657


Derek agrees with my thinking a few pages up.

[mpic]

Both planes might be having communication issues, neither have updated in a while

After watching the snippets showing what kind of turbulence those planes go through, they must have some topnotch mechanics!

[kassi]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

While I agree, a cat 5 wasn't anticipated at all. It's not likely, but nobody knows what the strength will be at landfall.

[Stormgodess]

Updated Live Potential Surge map.

https://i.ibb.co/515xFRQ/storm-surge.jpg

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

[weeniepatrol]

...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...

Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h).

[sponger]

Ortt!! He nailed Francis and Jeanine so far back in the day. Horrific. We never considered Cat 4 surge and landfall. We could be in big big trouble.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports the NHCs 905mb

[Sciencerocks]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

While I agree, a cat 5 wasn't anticipated at all. It's not likely, but nobody knows what the strength will be at landfall.

I'd say there's a chance if it heads east like Charley.

[zzzh]

Drop has 908mb with 34kt.