ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Period of ionospheric heating is just about to end

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[GCANE]

eye back to 10 nm dia

[caneman]

After the dip ESE he appears to be on NE heading for the last couple of hours and still west of forecast point. This lends credence to ICON. Anyone else notice it? Am I the only one noticing this?

Looks to be stair stepping, seems to be wobbling back east again.

It's still West of track

[Hugo1989]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=vis

My goodness she is pretty!

... he

Maybe Elle

[kassi]

Maybe I just missed it, but is there a *Sticky* for live news, advisories, etc?

I get all my hurricane news here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

They usually have the scoop.

I could be wrong, but I thought the poster meant something more localized, where people can share local details without cluttering up the main thread. S2k has had something like that in the past. I'm guessing anyone can start it.

[Zonacane]

eye back to 10 nm dia

Probably the first time in the Atlantic a hurricane has contracted back into a pinhole after an ERC

[cheezyWXguy]

eye back to 10 nm dia

Probably the first time in the Atlantic a hurricane has contracted back into a pinhole after an ERC

Felix 07’s eye after ERC actually contracted to a smaller size than than the initial eye it had before the ERC

[psyclone]

After the dip ESE he appears to be on NE heading for the last couple of hours and still west of forecast point. This lends credence to ICON. Anyone else notice it? Am I the only one noticing this?

Overall the system has ticked a good bit right today. It would need to deviate for a good while just to break even. That's why we saw wagons south at the 5pm. The real tell is to look at the growing differential on hurricane force wind probs for Tampa and Venice...up until this latest advisory they were pretty close but Venice has now blown open a huge lead. Tampa's risk remains high but Venice is now far higher.

[Highteeld]

The eye is torched on Dvorak

[jlauderdal]

Period of ionospheric heating is just about to end

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

Another episode that matched up with an increase with intensity.

[eastcoastFL]

I booked a property in Ft Lauderdale for tomorrow just in case. The south move at 5pm was too much to risk not having a back up plan. They moved the hurricane warning area south to about 5 miles from my house so we maybe heading south for a few days.

[eastcoastFL]

Period of ionospheric heating is just about to end

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

Another episode that matched up with an increase with intensity.

Definitely an interesting theory.

[GCANE]

Making the NE turn.
Should be over the Loop Current in a couple hours

[caneman]

After the dip ESE he appears to be on NE heading for the last couple of hours and still west of forecast point. This lends credence to ICON. Anyone else notice it? Am I the only one noticing this?

Overall the system has ticked a good bit right today. It would need to deviate for a good while just to break even. That's why we saw wagons south at the 5pm. The real tell is to look at the growing differential on hurricane force wind probs for Tampa and Venice...up until this latest advisory they were pretty close but Venice has now blown open a huge lead. Tampa's risk remains high but Venice is now far higher.

Yep but this just started 2 hours ago so don't think NHC would have that ingested. Would need to stay that way for a couple more hours to be a real trend. I watch zoom earth and while NHC kept saying Tallahasse you could clearly see the east trend to Steinhatchee for many hours

[jdjaguar]

When is High Tide? Is there any chance of landfall being then?

For Tampa, high tide is 5:51 AM Wednesday morning, them again at 6:50 AM Thursday morning. Low tide 2:19 PM in between those two

Well at least it does not line up with the eye coming ashore. Unfortunately North Fl is 230 am ish
Thursday morning. That could easily get to the upper end of the forecast of 5 feet. A worth while tradeoff.

High tide at my location is 4:27 am just measured have 3.5 ft to top of bulkhead. what is the surge measured off? mean tide?

[jlauderdal]

I booked a property in Ft Lauderdale for tomorrow just in case. The south move at 5pm was too much to risk not having a back up plan. They moved the hurricane warning area south to about 5 miles from my house so we maybe heading south for a few days.

Welcome to the Venice of America. A month ago, a trop warning would be huge news, now people evacuate to that area. I have a flight to nyc tomorrow, they cancelled the 830 and now its at 1, i say 50-50 it goes. Its a win either way. I would prefer to be here for any storm.

[aspen]

We should have NOAA data from the NE eyewall and eye in 5 minutes or so, which should confirm if Milton is still intending or has leveled off.

[Hurricane2022]

Milton is now looking incredibly similar to STY Bolaven last year. So I think it's safe to say thaf Bolaven in fact reached sib-900 at peak

[ConvergenceZone]

We should have NOAA data from the NE eyewall and eye in 5 minutes or so, which should confirm if Milton is still intending or has leveled off.

I think it's leveled off. It's very rare for a storm to return to its former high end cat 5 strength after an eyewall replacement cycle. There should be another EWRC tonight I would think

[ElectricStorm]

903.5 extrap