ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

In a few hours

IMO - It is far from a given that some kind of strengthening is going occur over the loop current. We've all seen plenty of storm pass over that area without any significant change. It is already very strong and has plenty of hot water to work with. At best, I think it may slow the weakening caused by the atmospheric challenges that lie ahead.

Going by SHIPS I don't really see any challenges until 6z

But did you check SHOPS?

[Pipelines182]

Can’t help but notice a complete lack of a secondary wind max.

What would that mean?

Generally that there isn’t going to be an EWRC soon but that’s not always a definitive sign anyway. There was no secondary wind max last night during an active EWRC.

[hipshot]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fRVhpN90/0a6d421b-2dab-4455-a972-97a90c620436.gif [/url]

I think it's on the angle it will take to Florida which would be @Port Charlotte/Englewood...

Looking at that with the grid, it sure looks like it is moving about ENE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Every model seems to keep moving this shear zone a little bit further north at landfall. Levi even mentioned it in today's video. If that trend continues, it wont be good for anyone

[TheBigO]

It means there is no outer eyewall developing right now, a secondary wind maximum would correlate with that outer eyewall. As it is Milton seems to have a band wrapping from the west around the south to the east, but that's pretty far out.

Ahhh, gotcha. So without an outer eye wall, it’s unlikely an EWRC is going to occur any time soon. You need a pretty clearly established outer eye wall before that process begins in a storm, right?

[caneman]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fRVhpN90/0a6d421b-2dab-4455-a972-97a90c620436.gif [/url]

I think it's on the angle it will take to Florida which would be @Port Charlotte/Englewood...

I'm showing more Bradenton. Taking out the ese dip it's closer to NE motion. Bad winds for Tampa Bay but water would be pushed out instead of the
Bay. We don't need that!

[jdjaguar]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fRVhpN90/0a6d421b-2dab-4455-a972-97a90c620436.gif [/url]

I think it's on the angle it will take to Florida which would be @Port Charlotte/Englewood...

I'm showing more Bradenton

sticking to landfall Longboat Key/ Sarasota exiting Melbourne.

[Exalt]

Every model seems to keep moving this shear zone a little bit further north at landfall. Levi even mentioned it in today's video. If that trend continues, it wont be good for anyone

This is what I was saying yesterday when everyone was claiming a Cat 3 landfall. Shear can change in a day, why speak in absolutes about weakening when there is a more than non-zero chance this thing could theoretically not weaken much at all?

[kevin]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

[Mike33534]

When counties cancel school, is it possible for them to reduce it or do they just say "oh well" and make it up anyway later?

[eastcoastFL]

I booked a property in Ft Lauderdale for tomorrow just in case. The south move at 5pm was too much to risk not having a back up plan. They moved the hurricane warning area south to about 5 miles from my house so we maybe heading south for a few days.

Welcome to the Venice of America. A month ago, a trop warning would be huge news, now people evacuate to that area. I have a flight to nyc tomorrow, they cancelled the 830 and now its at 1, i say 50-50 it goes. Its a win either way. I would prefer to be here for any storm.

1pm flight ? That's going to be pushing it for sure. Best of luck.

[ElectricStorm]

AF 904.3 extrap

[ROCK]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

Hard to go against the ICON this year..the 18Z was right up the bay so not a good scenario at all.

[dukeblue219]

904.3mb and 163kt on the old SFMR....

[Travorum]

Full pass from the two HDOBS:

222030 2302N 08703W 6966 02902 9744 +102 //// 135096 100 074 015 01
222100 2301N 08704W 6975 02852 //// +087 //// 128103 104 086 027 01
222130 2259N 08706W 6959 02825 //// +102 //// 126112 115 097 012 01
222200 2258N 08707W 6966 02739 9561 +121 //// 122123 125 113 007 05
222230 2257N 08708W 6962 02641 //// +108 //// 115129 131 132 019 01
222300 2256N 08709W 6954 02499 //// +120 //// 109115 129 149 022 01
222330 2254N 08710W 6967 02364 9096 +207 +140 108057 098 142 000 00
222400 2252N 08710W 7020 02280 9043 +245 +111 176004 031 060 001 00
222430 2251N 08711W 6976 02327 9044 +246 +105 297027 038 043 002 00
222500 2249N 08712W 6972 02363 9105 +203 +123 302061 074 069 005 00
222530 2248N 08713W 6963 02445 9189 +144 +138 304117 141 150 021 01
222600 2246N 08714W 6976 02557 //// +108 //// 299153 156 162 041 01
222630 2244N 08714W 6945 02718 //// +096 //// 294137 150 147 054 01
222700 2242N 08714W 6961 02790 9588 +127 //// 289119 128 117 026 01
222730 2241N 08715W 6950 02853 //// +107 //// 291111 116 103 002 01
222800 2239N 08715W 6977 02875 //// +094 //// 292102 112 090 018 01

[psyclone]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

No doubt. We are talking high stakes drama. Milton is an atmospheric black hole...honestly just looking at it is
simultaneously mesmerizing and terrifying

[Sciencerocks]

I'd probably go 150 knts mixing the flight level with smrf.

[aspen]

904.3mb and 163kt on the old SFMR....

Now I think it’s safe to say Milton is holding steady at the moment. Don’t know if it’ll drop below 900 when it hits the Loop Current, or if shear will pick up a tiny bit and begin the weakening phase.

[jasons2k]

This storm is giving me anxiety. As much as I want to believe our dear friend WxMan57, the latest trends have me concerned and not ready to say Tampa Bay dodged another bullet. The Icon is left of its earlier runs into Pinellas and slices across the bay. The GFS is at Bradenton Beach/Cortez. With the GFS there, would expect the next set of the stronger hurricane models to pound Pinellas again. I don’t think Tampa Bay is in the clear unless/until that changes, and we’re running out of time for that to happen.

[caneman]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

No doubt. We are talking high stakes drama. Milton is an atmospheric black hole...honestly just looking at it is
simultaneously mesmerizing and terrifying

Yep. Been talking about the NE movement for 2 hours now. The track seems to have moved back to the pre 5 pm update