Exalt wrote:ScottNAtlanta wrote:Every model seems to keep moving this shear zone a little bit further north at landfall. Levi even mentioned it in today's video. If that trend continues, it wont be good for anyone
This is what I was saying yesterday when everyone was claiming a Cat 3 landfall. Shear can change in a day, why speak in absolutes about weakening when there is a more than non-zero chance this thing could theoretically not weaken much at all?
I believe there will be weakening. It is very hard to maintain this kind of strength. I'm not positive is goes down to low cat 3. I'm thinking low cat4, but regardless, even if it is a low 3, the windfield will be much larger, and the surge is a cumulative action. It is pushing a tremendous amount of water, even now, and that water will continue to pile up all the way onshore. The water will be the biggest problem, not the wind.