ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane force winds are still pretty close to the center. I guess that's one positive we can take from this.

[ColdFusion]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It’s good to hear the optimism but personally I think it’s way to early to celebrate if your in Tampa.

Damn, whats the refund policy at Party City?

[Charleswachal]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

This is not good. I would expect some more strengthening if the eye is contracting again

[kassi]

As much as I hope this goes farther south my gut is telling me to watch the Hafs twins here. I won’t let my guard down. But I will certainly avoid an ulcer if those two shift south.

Where are you? No location in your profile.

[Zonacane]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

Oh no

[weeniepatrol]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

This is not good. I would expect some more strengthening if the eye is contracting again

my thoughts as well, also increases chances for another EWRC before landfall

[ColdFusion]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

Oh no

Oh yes

[Knight85]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

[loon]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It’s good to hear the optimism but personally I think it’s way to early to celebrate if your in Tampa.

I know his track record for being right is stellar, but I didn't think I'd ever hear such blatant write off from a professional Met... hope he's right.. he usually is. Glad I'm not in tampa bay.

[Bunkertor]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

I thought, that most models mostly agree on the impact site, or ?

[psyclone]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

Acknowledging a step in the right direction isn't an all clear. It's a field goal in a long game. I opted to drop a semi troll post because I have been here for a couple decades, I'm old and tired...LMAO... It could easily tick back...and everyone knows this. The hurricane warning stretches from Levy to Lee County for a reason...someone in that zone is unfortunately getting creamed...but not everyone...and we're all trying to figure that out..

[Craters]

AF plane has departed.

URNT15 KNHC 081920
AF303 1614A MILTON HDOB 03 20241008
191230 3025N 08855W 9946 00118 0080 +253 +123 020007 008 /// /// 03
191300 3026N 08854W 9742 00295 0075 +234 +110 017009 010 /// /// 03
191330 3027N 08854W 9482 00537 0085 +213 +106 018009 011 /// /// 03
191400 3026N 08856W 9349 00657 0085 +200 +107 020008 009 /// /// 03
191430 3025N 08857W 9054 00928 0079 +183 +098 021006 009 /// /// 03
191500 3023N 08858W 8784 01190 0082 +168 +100 355002 003 /// /// 03
191530 3022N 08859W 8542 01428 0086 +148 +092 348003 004 /// /// 03
191600 3020N 08900W 8307 01665 0089 +134 +063 351006 008 /// /// 03
191630 3018N 08901W 8143 01838 0084 +140 -051 041011 012 /// /// 03
191700 3017N 08902W 7919 02071 0083 +125 -060 076012 012 /// /// 03
191730 3015N 08903W 7725 02280 0085 +112 -071 066009 011 /// /// 03
191800 3013N 08905W 7550 02474 0076 +111 -077 059009 009 /// /// 03
191830 3012N 08906W 7391 02649 0071 +105 -085 041009 009 /// /// 03
191900 3010N 08907W 7234 02828 0071 +094 -091 028008 009 /// /// 03
191930 3008N 08908W 7097 02986 0070 +087 -106 004011 013 /// /// 03
192000 3006N 08909W 6975 03132 0066 +080 -120 004015 016 /// /// 03
192030 3004N 08910W 6857 03271 0061 +077 -168 030015 016 /// /// 03
192100 3003N 08912W 6729 03427 0056 +072 -203 033014 015 /// /// 03
192130 3001N 08913W 6599 03588 0055 +064 -195 026013 014 /// /// 03
192200 2959N 08914W 6495 03716 0052 +055 -187 021013 014 /// /// 03
$$

They are a little late in getting up, so we won't see a pass until after the 5pm advisory comes.

I hope they're up now! Flying in your sleep can be very hazardous, especially if you're doing it in a hurricane!

[mpic]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

"Crowd mentality"?

[caneman]

[quote="eastcoastFL"]Hurricane force winds are still pretty close to the center. I guess that's one positive we can take from this.[/quote

It's going to double at landfall

[eastcoastFL]

Tampa area folks are so trained by Charlie, Ian etc. , that one Advisory showing a south move caused a bunch of folks on social media to wave the all clear flag. I hope people stay tuned into the 11PM advisory and beyond.

Acknowledging a step in the right direction isn't an all clear. It's a field goal in a long game. I opted to drop a semi troll post because I have been here for a couple decades, I'm old and tired...LMAO... It could easily tick back...and everyone knows this. The hurricane warning stretches from Levy to Lee County for a reason...someone in that zone is unfortunately getting creamed...but not everyone...and we're all trying to figure that out..

Well said. Also this real time wobble tracker from WFLA is great. Did they do this for previous storms?

[caneman]

Clear NE motion now. I still have this awful feeling that ICON will be right again and that it'll landfall in the bay. The next 24 hours are gonna be intense.

I thought, that most models mostly agree on the impact site, or ?

False! Some are North some are South. Either well in the margin of error

[Exalt]

D. 906 mb
E. 170 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C7

This is not good. I would expect some more strengthening if the eye is contracting again

my thoughts as well, also increases chances for another EWRC before landfall

Wasn't it already highly likely there'd be another EWRC since it's such a volatile storm?

[Travorum]

At least 147kt FL winds from NOAA recon in the SE so far, HDOB cut off before the eye.

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane force winds are still pretty close to the center. I guess that's one positive we can take from this.[/quote

It's going to double at landfall

I saw that in the forecast but I'm happy it's still small for now so that way when it doubles we're only talking about 60 miles from center and not more. I'll take a small W.

[otowntiger]

Anything happen today? Been busy with advisories past 11 hrs. Looking like Tampa Bay may be spared a direct hit. Guidance is shifting south. Storm is tracking right of the forecast, as is always the case in these situations. I feel relieved for Tampa, as the city would have been destroyed. However, I feel bad for the residents farther south.

It’s good to hear the optimism but personally I think it’s way to early to celebrate if your in Tampa.

I know his track record for being right is stellar, but I didn't think I'd ever hear such blatant write off from a professional Met... hope he's right.. he usually is. Glad I'm not in tampa bay.

while I’m very glad for his valuable input here and respect him, he doesnt always get it right.