EPAC: INVEST 99E

[ElectricStorm]

99E INVEST 241006 1800 16.9N 103.7W EPAC 25 1009

This won't get much attention due to Milton but could be the next TC

[mpic]

99E INVEST 241006 1800 16.9N 103.7W EPAC 25 1009

This won't get much attention due to Milton but could be the next TC

It has been mentioned in passing which is why I looked for a thread. Will be interesting to see how much it follows Milton if it makes it into the GOM.

[cycloneye]

It looks like it will fail to develop as shear will increase in 24 hours.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased in coverage and intensity
over the past several hours in association with a weak area of low
pressure located about 125 miles southwest of Puerto Vallarta,
Mexico. A tropical depression could still form over the next day
or so as the system moves slowly north-northwestward to
northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. By late
Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable,
and further development is not expected after that time. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a small
but well-defined area of low pressure located a little over one
hundred miles west-southwest of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The
proximity of very dry environmental air to the west of the system
may continue to limit shower and thunderstorm activity and its
chances to become a tropical depression are decreasing. This system
is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward to northwestward,
just offshore of the coast of Mexico and by late Wednesday,
upper-level winds are also forecast to become unfavorable, ending
its chances for further development. Regardless of development, the
system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin