ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Is Tampa/St Pete a ghost town now? Trying to see what it’s like there

Pretty much. There’s a few businesses still open but the majority of downtown is dead besides a few residents walking around.

Tomorrow will be even quieter.

[Steve]

The Mayor of Tampa regarding Evacuations

When asked about what she would say to residents who’ve ridden out past hurricanes and are hesitant about evacuating for Milton, Castor gave a grave warning.

“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die,” Castor warned.

While it's definitely a possibility, and I do believe everyone should heed mandatory evacuations, I do not agree with her approach.

Maybe you cling to a tree? It’s part of a larger appearance that didn’t make political points or jabs at the spreaders of obvious disinformation - just a reminder that the internet is full of bs. Nina Golgowski on Yahoo News has the story, but I’m not linking it because it names names. However, I will copy and paste this from Mayor Castor:

“Please don’t get political on this. This storm is going to affect everybody, and we are getting the help that we need from all of the different governmental officials,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said at a press conference Tuesday…“Hate to break it to you but a lot of what you see on social media is not factual. Stick with the facts,” Castor said, after dispelling localized rumors that Tampa is proactively shutting off power and water to all residents before the storm hits.

[utweather]

Timing of the NE heading will make a huge difference on where this ends up. I accidentally took an unheard of evening nap. Time to wobble watch and read comments claiming new landfall points all night.

A tv met in the area expect it will trend even further south. Same reasoning as the pro met here.

[johngaltfla]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

I wouldn't be shocked to see landfall anywhere between Lido Key and Anna Maria Island. It's going to be a historic disaster no matter what.

[tropicwatch]

Spaghetti Model tracks south of Tampa.

[wx98]

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 234020 UTC
Lat : 22:57:35 N Lon : 86:56:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 900.3mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -76.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Rail Dawg]

Started chasing Cat 1 and 2 in Louisiana mid-90's.

Great way to cut one's teeth.

Finally got to the 4's and then finally the Cat 5.

Parking lot garages are where it's at. Both vehicle and supplies are safe from both wind and surge.

It takes planning and this board was instrumental during the biggest storms.

So the fun for 25 years and 16 storms was to try and catch the eye of the hurricane while in a parking lot garage.

These newbies are going to pay a very high misery price if they decide to chase a Cat 5 without much experience.

It's a very deadly game. You Tube Mexico Beach car washed away Michael. Those are the 2 kids warned not to leave the parking garage in Panama City as we learned it was now a Cat 5.

Their desire for online clicks cost them their vehicle, supplies and almost their lives.

One rule in chasing is don't become a liability.

Chuck

[dukeblue219]

Spaghetti Model tracks south of Tampa.

https://tropicwatch.info/spaghetti100820240000z.png

Ugh. There are some real junky models in that bunch including what looks like a projection of the current path straight through the keys which just ain't gonna happen.

[Blown Away]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

I wouldn't be shocked to see landfall anywhere between Lido Key and Anna Maria Island. It's going to be a historic disaster no matter what.

Milton is already east of the 5pm track… Not west.

[NDG]

Eye keeps contracting, down to 8 nm.

511
URNT12 KNHC 090018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 08/23:51:00Z
B. 23.02 deg N 086.90 deg W
C. 700 mb 2319 m
D. EXTRAP 907 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C8
H. 133 kt
I. 142 deg 5 nm 23:49:30Z
J. 235 deg 142 kt
K. 146 deg 6 nm 23:49:00Z
L. 143 kt
M. 343 deg 3 nm 23:52:00Z
N. 061 deg 122 kt
O. 331 deg 7 nm 23:53:00Z
P. 11 C / 3031 m
Q. 23 C / 3045 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF303 1614A MILTON OB 19
MAX FL WIND 156 KT 207 / 7 NM 22:26:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;

[wx98]

Mike Bettes on TWC just threw out the “A-word”…

Annular

[Highteeld]

ERC is happening soon. I think the peak today was probably around 21 zulu

[SconnieCane]

Mike Bettes on TWC just threw out the “A-word”…

Annular

Properly annular TCs have a much larger eye than Milton ever has thus far. See the examples pictured here.

[eastcoastFL]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

[NDG]

Spaghetti Model tracks south of Tampa.

https://tropicwatch.info/spaghetti100820240000z.png

Are these the new 0z ?

[CronkPSU]

not sure it can complete another EWRC and not lose a lot especially in less ideal conditions...i was always hoping this would be the reason it weakened and not shear

[wx98]

Mike Bettes on TWC just threw out the “A-word”…

Annular

Properly annular TCs have a much larger eye than Milton ever has thus far. See the examples pictured here.

Yes, I’m aware. Just thought it slightly humorous because of all the “annular” comments when get in this forum. It is on the Storm2K bingo card after all…

[NDG]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Wow! Look at those cells offshore, they probably have water spouts.

[SconnieCane]

Spaghetti Model tracks south of Tampa.

https://tropicwatch.info/spaghetti100820240000z.png

Are these the new 0z ?

It's only 0035Z, highly unlikely any data from those is available yet. Usually takes a couple hours for it to start populating on sites like TT. I suppose it could be the "early" track projections, but aren't those just interpolated using the previous run?

[Steve]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Look at those supercells out front. HWRF showed them yesterday on shore.