ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

Ya, well, has this storm done ANYTHING that was anticipated??

[eastcoastFL]

Started chasing Cat 1 and 2 in Louisiana mid-90's.

Great way to cut one's teeth.

Finally got to the 4's and then finally the Cat 5.

Parking lot garages are where it's at. Both vehicle and supplies are safe from both wind and surge.

It takes planning and this board was instrumental during the biggest storms.

So the fun for 25 years and 16 storms was to try and catch the eye of the hurricane while in a parking lot garage.

These newbies are going to pay a very high misery price if they decide to chase a Cat 5 without much experience.

It's a very deadly game. You Tube Mexico Beach car washed away Michael. Those are the 2 kids warned not to leave the parking garage in Panama City as we learned it was now a Cat 5.

Their desire for online clicks cost them their vehicle, supplies and almost their lives.

One rule in chasing is don't become a liability.

Chuck

I remember many of your trips but I never thought of you as a chaser. You always had a truck full of batteries and supplies too so i thought you were just going to deliver supplies and aid. Either way it was a cool ride to follow. I remember you describing the “fist of god”.

[GCANE]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Already seeing some helicity in those cells NW of the Keys.
If it maintains and comes onshore, could be a slight tornado threat

[BobHarlem]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

If you are using zoom earth look at the pink dot ahead of it for the official position the line it draws is its own before that, it's east of the official track, however It IS west of the 18z halfs model positions though.

Yellow line is actual NHC Track forecast, the other positions are intemediate advisory, the pink line is just zoomearth's extrapolations.

[dukeblue219]

Spaghetti Model tracks south of Tampa.

https://tropicwatch.info/spaghetti100820240000z.png

Are these the new 0z ?

It's only 0035Z, highly unlikely any data from those is available yet. Usually takes a couple hours for it to start populating on sites like TT. I suppose it could be the "early" track projections, but aren't those just interpolated using the previous run?

It's just the usual garbage local news likes to portray as "their" in-house model or whatever. No labels, no context, Im tossing them in favor of actual established models.

[eastcoastFL]

Absolute Madness! This is terrible news for Florida, it is not out of the question it will strike as a Cat 5. Cat 4 looks likely at this rate.

Cat 5 landfall is not anticipated

Ya, well, has this storm done ANYTHING that was anticipated??

Intensity wise Milton has been a total crapshoot.

[Poonwalker]

As much as I hope this goes farther south my gut is telling me to watch the Hafs twins here. I won’t let my guard down. But I will certainly avoid an ulcer if those two shift south.

Where are you? No location in your profile.

I have a townhouse in Oldsmar that is sandbagged and a house in Seminole that is high and dry. Either way I could deal with flood damage or have a tree come into the house etc. Not liking the models at all.

[Abdullah]

Didn't see any comments about this insane dropsonde drop that just came in



Data is from an hour and a half ago

What is this indicative of, though?

[ColdFusion]

Are these the new 0z ?

It's only 0035Z, highly unlikely any data from those is available yet. Usually takes a couple hours for it to start populating on sites like TT. I suppose it could be the "early" track projections, but aren't those just interpolated using the previous run?

It's just the usual garbage local news likes to portray as "their" in-house model or whatever. No labels, no context, Im tossing them in favor of actual established models.

I avoid anything labeled as 'Spaghetti Model'. I wish they would retire that phrase.

[Bocadude85]

Are these the new 0z ?

It's only 0035Z, highly unlikely any data from those is available yet. Usually takes a couple hours for it to start populating on sites like TT. I suppose it could be the "early" track projections, but aren't those just interpolated using the previous run?

It's just the usual garbage local news likes to portray as "their" in-house model or whatever. No labels, no context, Im tossing them in favor of actual established models.

The early 0z spaghetti models are up on tropical tidbits…the TVCN is just north of Port Charlotte..take from it what you will

[weeniepatrol]

[CronkPSU]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

If you are using zoom earth look at the pink dot ahead of it for the official position the line it draws is its own before that. It IS west of the 0z halfs model positions though.

wait west? i thought everyone was saying it was still south and east of the track

[eastcoastFL]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Look at those supercells out front. HWRF showed them yesterday on shore.

Pretty wild and that’s the way far outer bands.

[Beef Stew]

What I still can’t get over is that Milton’s second peak of 902 would still put him tied for 8th (with katrina) in terms of lowest pressure in the Atlantic- and one of the storms he’d be behind is himself.

[PCswfl]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

I am in between Sarasota and Fort Myers, I don't like your idea. Ian laid waste to Port Charlotte. Although we do appear to be a magnet so it would not surprise me one bit if Milton comes knocking.

[GCANE]

Here is where shear is supposed to being taking a bite out of Milton.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=


However, Milton's core is peaking out way into the Stratosphere.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

So, let's see how much shear really has an effect on Milton.

[utweather]

Still west of track for 4 hours now looks like Longboat key

If you are using zoom earth look at the pink dot ahead of it for the official position the line it draws is its own before that. It IS west of the 0z halfs model positions though.

wait west? i thought everyone was saying it was still south and east of the track

Yes that is what the mets are saying.

[utweather]

If you are using zoom earth look at the pink dot ahead of it for the official position the line it draws is its own before that. It IS west of the 0z halfs model positions though.

wait west? i thought everyone was saying it was still south and east of the track

Yes that is what the mets are saying. East

[HurricaneBelle]

Mike Bettes on TWC just threw out the “A-word”…

Annular

"Annular" does not equal round or symmetrical, which is how it normally gets misused.

[hipshot]

The incoming rain is following the nhc track

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Look at those supercells out front. HWRF showed them yesterday on shore.

Those could be just the warm up for what's behind it, not looking good!