2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z GFS pushes this east, well east of south florida...

Well FINALLY some good news, at least for Florida anyway.

Way too far out to take ANY individual storm location / track seriously. At that range, it’s all about signals…

but are any other models even showing this? I keep seeing the GFS posted, but not seeing any other models posted as far as what they are showing.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/8Oi3Zz9.png

If that happened verbatim, I honestly think there will be a mass exodus from Tampa and quite a humanitarian crisis, the likes of which I'd rather not even ruminate on at this point.

Welcome back to 2004 in Florida in that case...

No kidding. The state was seemingly cut off from the rest of the country for 20 days. It was pretty awful we were without power for a month

I remember the we boarded up for the first storm at work, took the wood down for the second, put it back up. Just decided to leave it up the rest of the year

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I'm not worried about the GFS model unless other models start showing the same thing. So nothing to be concerned about at this time.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think I got an aneurysm by watching the 18z GFS. This season really hates Florida.

[Hurricane Mike]

I wouldn't rule it out. This seems like a backloaded season.

[kevin]

If the GEFS is to be believed the WCar could be the hotbed for TC activity in the next 2 weeks with a cluster of members forming a TC in 6 - 7 days which could impact Cuba. In the 10 - 15 day range multiple GEFS members show another WCar disturbance with US landfalling potential as well as a forming TC in the eastern part of the Caribbean. Unfortunately, SSTs in the Caribbean are at a record-high and we all know what happens when there is just too much heat energy in an unstable system (aka Milton). Unfortunately, these late season storms are almost always a threat to land. On the flip side, the GEFS also shows some out to sea MDR members, which would be a lot more fun to track. Either way, welcome to peak season 2024.

[jconsor]

More potential activity in the Caribbean in mid to late Oct:

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1843674117427663154

[cycloneye]

Guess what, what GFS has developing on long range is from the wave now with 20%. Look closely.

[zzzh]

Watch for a wave entering the Caribbean near day 10, EPS has some signals.

[LAF92]

Watch for a wave entering the Caribbean near day 10, EPS has some signals.

18z GFS has a 965mb hurricane hitting the Yucatan in about 11 days then heading into the central gulf

[ConvergenceZone]

Watch for a wave entering the Caribbean near day 10, EPS has some signals.

18z GFS has a 965mb hurricane hitting the Yucatan in about 11 days then heading into the central gulf
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PrqJTNND/IMG-1654.jpg [/url]

crap. I hope not. Here we go again.

[zzzh]

Watch for a wave entering the Caribbean near day 10, EPS has some signals.

18z GFS has a 965mb hurricane hitting the Yucatan in about 11 days then heading into the central gulf
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PrqJTNND/IMG-1654.jpg [/url]

That's a different system, seems like a GFS W. Caribbean bias storm.

[Teban54]

GFS and Euro ensembles both have some signal for Caribbean development around Oct 18-20, although the signal on EPS is very, very weak. It appears to be the same system that operational GFS has been showing.

Thankfully, so far these models keep it weak. On the other hand, they also said so for Milton a few days before it bombed out to 897 mb.

Edit: 6z GEFS also had a few isolated members showing a west-moving MDR storm either entering the Caribbean or just to the north, but no other runs had them.

[weeniepatrol]

Presented without comment

[Meteorcane]

Presented without comment

https://i.imgur.com/wRoM3Cj.png

GFS/GEFS still relatively insistent on some NW Carib development late next week on the tail end of a cold frontal passage (the first one of the season that really makes it through the entire GOM with some force). This is a scenario where you can get some (initially) hybrid development (which later turns fully tropical as the front washes out and upper lvl winds decrease). However, given the GFS bias for spawning gyre systems in that region would like to see some other guidance jump on board (beyond a handful of EPS members) before taking it too seriously, although it is a region that does become climo favored by late October.

[underthwx]

12Z GFS pushes this east, well east of south florida...

Well FINALLY some good news, at least for Florida anyway.

Way too far out to take ANY individual storm location / track seriously. At that range, it’s all about signals…

So....after reading posts here about more possible development in the NW Carribean....will this become an area of interest be highlighted by the NHC in the next few days...on their tropical cyclone outlook?...it would unfortunately not be too surprising....given the fact that it's still hurricane season...

[Teban54]

6z GEFS has a few more members showing a strong hurricane crossing near the Yucatan Channel.

Please, can we just don't?

[SFLcane]

GFS has been VERY persistent with the idea of another TC in the caribbean. Looks like a pretty classsic FL pattern.

[jlauderdal]

GFS has been VERY persistent with the idea of another TC in the caribbean. Looks like a pretty classsic FL pattern.

https://i.postimg.cc/J7JZXyGg/gggg33.png

https://i.postimg.cc/xCNHt8gX/bbbb.jpg

Plenty of OHC to work with in that area of the basin. Will let GCANE do his thing as we get closer in. How did you do with Milt?

[jlauderdal]

Well FINALLY some good news, at least for Florida anyway.

Way too far out to take ANY individual storm location / track seriously. At that range, it’s all about signals…

So....after reading posts here about more possible development in the NW Carribean....will this become an area of interest be highlighted by the NHC in the next few days...on their tropical cyclone outlook?...it would unfortunately not be too surprising....given the fact that it's still hurricane season...

Might need to get a bit more support but I suspect they will be aggressive tagging, the modeling has done will with genesis during this uptick. Anyone dare go against the HAFS intensities the rest of the way?