ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3901 Postby Steve H. » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:49 pm

Milton is also growing in size, it seems as it is entering the Yucatán channel and getting away from the frictional effects of the coast. He has room to stretch his arms
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3902 Postby Meteorcane » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:50 pm

FLLurker32 wrote:I had to go back and look for my own sanity check.

NHC cone for Helene 24 hours prior to landfall did not even include the county where landfall ultimately occurred. The guidance models were in FAR better agreement then than they are now - and had been for a couple days - and were all wrong.

Milton has been even less predictable. Lest anyone get too comfortable of what they think they know..


this is factually not correct... the landfall point was a bit on the right side of the 24 hour cone, but it was within it... refer to https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/HELENE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

But... I will edit this post to emphasize that your basic point is correct, overly focusing on the track centerline is not wise as is living and dying with each model cycle and/or wobble (although wobble watching does become relevant shortly before landfall).
Last edited by Meteorcane on Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3903 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:53 pm

Going to throw this model out there for 3 reasons: (1) it was the best model through 72 hours for Helene, (2) it was the only model that showed the southern track towards the Yucatan for Milton early on, and (3) it's performing the best for Milton right now as well:

Image
Image

This models solution for landfall may not verify, but the take home being, don't let your guard down or become hyper focused on the center of the cone right now. This may come in more north, or more south, all we know is intense hurricanes like Milton will jog/wobble quite frequently (as the NHC also stated in their latest discussion).
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3904 Postby Travorum » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:54 pm

A consistent thing I've noticed with rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes recently is SFMR readings are almost always higher than FL wind reduction estimates. This data characteristic has been seen in a lot of recent examples of RI hurricanes; Beryl and Lee come to mind as very recent examples. There are two likely explanations for this: the SFMR wind estimation algorithm is inaccurate at extremely high wind speeds, or winds mix down to the surface more efficiently in rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes and the standard FL wind reduction factor is misrepresentative. Either way, I expect that this will be an active area of research in the coming years.

It was similar research into how FL winds correlate to surface winds in 2004 that justified hurricane Andrew's post hoc Cat 5 upgrade a decade after it occurred. Perhaps analysis in the future might examine if standard FL wind reduction factors are universally applicable in RI/EI cases. Conversely, there may be research that corrects the algorithm that defines the relation between SFMR brightness temperature and surface windspeed for the high-end situations. Regardless, this may be an active area of research similar to the research advancements that were occurring in the early 2000s.

If any meteorologists have any insight into this that I am ignorant of, it would be greatly appreciated. This is just my inexpert opinion.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3905 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:57 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3906 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:58 pm

I grabbed this WV loop for people to see the players on the field (so to speak). You have the shortwave diving south in the western GOM. That is what is steering Milton to the NE. Also notice that Milton has good outflow N and S. That shows an anticyclone right on top of it. Intense hurricanes can often create their own anticyclone. I don't see the jet that will cause the shear later on yet. This is what a textbook healthy hurricane looks like
Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3907 Postby piffer28 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:59 pm

dafif wrote:Can someone help me. I think on this site during Helene someone posted a link to a web page that showed the wind/projected wind for your location.

Does anyone remember or know that link? Thanks.


I saw this, but I imagine it's as solid as pudding currently with the unknown path

https://www.wtsp.com/article/weather/hu ... 73bb22bf63
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3908 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:00 pm

Travorum wrote:A consistent thing I've noticed with rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes recently is SFMR readings are almost always higher than FL wind reduction estimates. This data characteristic has been seen in a lot of recent examples of RI hurricanes; Beryl and Lee come to mind as very recent examples. There are two likely explanations for this: the SFMR wind estimation algorithm is inaccurate at extremely high wind speeds, or winds mix down to the surface more efficiently in rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes and the standard FL wind reduction factor is misrepresentative. Either way, I expect that this will be an active area of research in the coming years.

It was similar research into how FL winds correlate to surface winds in 2004 that justified hurricane Andrew's post hoc Cat 5 upgrade a decade after it occurred. Perhaps analysis in the future might examine if standard FL wind reduction factors are universally applicable in RI/EI cases. Conversely, there may be research that corrects the algorithm that defines the relation between SFMR brightness temperature and surface windspeed for the high-end situations. Regardless, this may be an active area of research similar to the research advancements that were occurring in the early 2000s.

If any meteorologists have any insight into this that I am ignorant of, it would be greatly appreciated. This is just my inexpert opinion.


 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1841103250105516208




SFMR data on NOAA hurricane hunters have been deemed unreliable and therefore not transmitted. Not sure if the same can be applied to AF hurricane hunters.

In any event, NHC has been increasingly sceptical of SFMR performance in higher wind speeds in recent years.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3909 Postby Fancy1002 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:04 pm

On IR, it looks like it’s getting a bit ragged and winding down.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3910 Postby dukeblue219 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:04 pm

NotoSans wrote:SFMR data on NOAA hurricane hunters have been deemed unreliable and therefore not transmitted. Not sure if the same can be applied to AF hurricane hunters.

In any event, NHC has been increasingly sceptical of SFMR performance in higher wind speeds in recent years.


It's an issue with the sensors, not a dismissal of the science of SFMR. AF continues to transmit from their planes and NHC continues to consider the results.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3911 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:05 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3912 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:06 pm

Fancy1002 wrote:On IR, it looks like it’s getting a bit ragged and winding down.

I just snapped that WV loop about 10 mins ago...looks fairly healthy to me currently
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3913 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:07 pm

USTropics wrote:Going to throw this model out there for 3 reasons: (1) it was the best model through 72 hours for Helene, (2) it was the only model that showed the southern track towards the Yucatan for Milton early on, and (3) it's performing the best for Milton right now as well:

https://i.imgur.com/brcKey4.png
https://i.imgur.com/xCznt5B.png

This models solution for landfall may not verify, but the take home being, don't let your guard down or become hyper focused on the center of the cone right now. This may come in more north, or more south, all we know is intense hurricanes like Milton will jog/wobble quite frequently (as the NHC also stated in their latest discussion).


Fascinating. And how is it doing with intensity or is strictly a predictive model for the track?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3914 Postby Travorum » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:08 pm

NotoSans wrote:
Travorum wrote:A consistent thing I've noticed with rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes recently is SFMR readings are almost always higher than FL wind reduction estimates. This data characteristic has been seen in a lot of recent examples of RI hurricanes; Beryl and Lee come to mind as very recent examples. There are two likely explanations for this: the SFMR wind estimation algorithm is inaccurate at extremely high wind speeds, or winds mix down to the surface more efficiently in rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes and the standard FL wind reduction factor is misrepresentative. Either way, I expect that this will be an active area of research in the coming years.

It was similar research into how FL winds correlate to surface winds in 2004 that justified hurricane Andrew's post hoc Cat 5 upgrade a decade after it occurred. Perhaps analysis in the future might examine if standard FL wind reduction factors are universally applicable in RI/EI cases. Conversely, there may be research that corrects the algorithm that defines the relation between SFMR brightness temperature and surface windspeed for the high-end situations. Regardless, this may be an active area of research similar to the research advancements that were occurring in the early 2000s.

If any meteorologists have any insight into this that I am ignorant of, it would be greatly appreciated. This is just my inexpert opinion.


https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1841103250105516208

SFMR data on NOAA hurricane hunters have been deemed unreliable and therefore not transmitted. Not sure if the same can be applied to AF hurricane hunters.

In any event, NHC has been increasingly sceptical of SFMR performance in higher wind speeds in recent years.


I'm aware of NOAA's decision to not use SFMR data operationally, from the language they use this seems to be due to degradation of the actual equipment onboard the WP-3s rather than systematic methodological failure of SFMR itself. This would be corroborated by the Air Force still using SFMR data. As to your second point, I would agree that the NHC's reluctance to trust SFMR data would point to the SFMR wind speed algorithm being unreliable in the extreme high end scenarios rather than FL wind speed reductions being inaccurate.

I would love to see an analysis of NOAA tail doppler radar profile data to examine vertical wind profiles and how efficiently winds mix down at different rates of intensification.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3915 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:10 pm

Here’s a link to several live stream cameras set up from WXLogic to monitor tomorrow.

https://hazcams.com/
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3916 Postby Craters » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:10 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I grabbed this WV loop for people to see the players on the field (so to speak). You have the shortwave diving south in the western GOM. That is what is steering Milton to the NE. Also notice that Milton has good outflow N and S. That shows an anticyclone right on top of it. Intense hurricanes can often create their own anticyclone. I don't see the jet that will cause the shear later on yet. This is what a textbook healthy hurricane looks like
https://i.imgur.com/KqHihrp.gif

The classic hurricane symbol in Real Life® right there...
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3917 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:12 pm

As plenty of people have mentioned weakening is relative. Yeah it’s better to get a 940’s system than a 920’s or lower. But don’t think that won’t be a historic storm for those who have to deal with it. Hurricane Betsy 1965 came in Grand Isle at 946. It was the benchmark storm in New Orleans for my parents generation (I was too young to remember) and was the big storm until Katrina hit. Milton could conceivably still hit in the 930’s which is worse. Gonna be tens of billions in damage across the state, and lives will be lost. Regardless of whether it goes in Tampa Bay or south, millions will still be affected. Sarasota-Bradenton has over 800k people and close to 900k if you consider down toward Venice. Orlando has over 2.5MM population and there is another 600k in Titusville/Melbourne/Mims/Cocoa Beach. Plus there’s a lot of people in between those statistical areas. This isn’t a big bend type storm or Panhandle hit because of the number of people that will be affected. It’s gonna be ugly maybe in ways we haven’t seen yet despite all the storms we’ve tracked together over the years.
Last edited by Steve on Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3918 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:12 pm

Looks like it is just about to hit the loop current location.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3919 Postby NotoSans » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:12 pm

Travorum wrote:
NotoSans wrote:
Travorum wrote:A consistent thing I've noticed with rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes recently is SFMR readings are almost always higher than FL wind reduction estimates. This data characteristic has been seen in a lot of recent examples of RI hurricanes; Beryl and Lee come to mind as very recent examples. There are two likely explanations for this: the SFMR wind estimation algorithm is inaccurate at extremely high wind speeds, or winds mix down to the surface more efficiently in rapidly/explosively intensifying hurricanes and the standard FL wind reduction factor is misrepresentative. Either way, I expect that this will be an active area of research in the coming years.

It was similar research into how FL winds correlate to surface winds in 2004 that justified hurricane Andrew's post hoc Cat 5 upgrade a decade after it occurred. Perhaps analysis in the future might examine if standard FL wind reduction factors are universally applicable in RI/EI cases. Conversely, there may be research that corrects the algorithm that defines the relation between SFMR brightness temperature and surface windspeed for the high-end situations. Regardless, this may be an active area of research similar to the research advancements that were occurring in the early 2000s.

If any meteorologists have any insight into this that I am ignorant of, it would be greatly appreciated. This is just my inexpert opinion.


https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1841103250105516208

SFMR data on NOAA hurricane hunters have been deemed unreliable and therefore not transmitted. Not sure if the same can be applied to AF hurricane hunters.

In any event, NHC has been increasingly sceptical of SFMR performance in higher wind speeds in recent years.


I'm aware of NOAA's decision to not use SFMR data operationally, from the language they use this seems to be due to degradation of the actual equipment onboard the WP-3s rather than systematic methodological failure of SFMR itself. This would be corroborated by the Air Force still using SFMR data. As to your second point, I would agree that the NHC's reluctance to trust SFMR data would point to the SFMR wind speed algorithm being unreliable in the extreme high end scenarios rather than FL wind speed reductions being inaccurate.

I would love to see an analysis of NOAA tail doppler radar profile data to examine vertical wind profiles and how efficiently winds mix down at different rates of intensification.


I’d need to locate the exact source for this, but as far as I recall NOAA did an update to the SFMR algorithm in 2023 - the wind speed at the high end of the spectrum is still running a bit hot, but it’s lower than right after the 2015 update.

NHC and NOAA do seem to have different takes on this issue. NHC is more sceptical to SFMR winds than NOAA.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion: 165 mph / 902 mbs

#3920 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:13 pm

saved loop
Image
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