ATL: MILTON - Models

[caneman]

People posting the silly lines should know better IMO, each line is weighted equal and they certainly are NOT equal. If any of you in harms way believe some of these and get smacked, and survive, don't tell us how you didn't know.

And it appears we don't like the Icon anymore either. This should be your first sign that logic has left the building. /scolding complete

I'm still watching the cone and the Icon but that's still a huge swing in just 12 hours assuming it even verifies.. If it verifies, won't help their short term error margin. We will see.... i thought it odd this morning that it was just 74 and cool in the Tampa Bay area

[IcyTundra]

I'm very confused by the fact that the consensus models are showing landfall so far south. My understanding is that the TVCN uses the GFS,UKMET, Euro, UKMET, and the HWRF but I'm probably forgetting a couple of models used. All of those models seem to be further north than the consensus though doesn't make any sense.

[NDG]

For those following the the Euro Ensembles, 18z shifted north, focusing near Bradenton.

[caneman]

For those following the the Euro Ensembles, 18z shifted north, focusing near Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/FVvqeRx.png

How long ago did that update?

[NDG]

I'm very confused by the fact that the consensus models are showing landfall so far south. My understanding is that the TVCN uses the GFS,UKMET, Euro, UKMET, and the HWRF but I'm probably forgetting a couple of models used. All of those models seem to be further north than the consensus though doesn't make any sense.

Instead of the GFS they use GFSI, HWRF they used HWFI....an "adjusted" version of their previous run, I guess "I" stands for Interpolated. Supposedly they do an adjustment taking their supposed bias out. I think it works in the short term but not in the longer term like we saw with Francine when the LLC reformed further NW, so the whole model suit shifted west from south central LA to SW LA, while most global models remained further east.

[NDG]

For those following the the Euro Ensembles, 18z shifted north, focusing near Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/FVvqeRx.png

How long ago did that update?

These are the freshly released 18z ensembles.

[Poonwalker]

I'm very confused by the fact that the consensus models are showing landfall so far south. My understanding is that the TVCN uses the GFS,UKMET, Euro, UKMET, and the HWRF but I'm probably forgetting a couple of models used. All of those models seem to be further north than the consensus though doesn't make any sense.

Instead of the GFS they use GFSI, HWRF they used HWFI....an "adjusted" version of their previous run, I guess "I" stands for Interpolated. Supposedly they do an adjustment taking their supposed bias out. I think it works in the short term but not in the longer term like we saw with Francine when the LLC reformed further NW, so the whole model suit shifted west from south central LA to SW LA, while most global models remained further east.

Fear driven. Stick with the most advanced forecasting models and what the NHC reports. The earlier south shift by NHC was trying to account for the new position which was indeed SE. The only trend Iam seeing at this time is an agreement by the models that Tampa is not in the clear. Neither is the coast below especially with surge.

[NDG]

For the 100th time, this is how way off the "adjusted" early models and TVCN consensus models were off just 30-36 hours before Helene's landfall.
And look which models were correct? And ICON was in that pile with the GFS, Euro, HAFSs...
May I add, this is the reason why Hurricane Man had to go chase Helene's eye in the middle of the night because he was trusting the TVCN more than the global models.

[FLLurker32]

For the 100th time, this is how way off the "adjusted" early models and TVCN consensus models were off just 30-36 hours before Helene's landfall.
And look which models were correct? And ICON was in that pile with the GFS, Euro, HAFSs...

https://i.imgur.com/BpvZCVe.gif

Correct. They had better consensus then than they do now even.

[NDG]

For the 100th time, this is how way off the "adjusted" early models and TVCN consensus models were off just 30-36 hours before Helene's landfall.
And look which models were correct? And ICON was in that pile with the GFS, Euro, HAFSs...

https://i.imgur.com/BpvZCVe.gif

Correct. They had better consensus then than they do now even.

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

[caneseddy]

For the 100th time, this is how way off the "adjusted" early models and TVCN consensus models were off just 30-36 hours before Helene's landfall.
And look which models were correct? And ICON was in that pile with the GFS, Euro, HAFSs...

https://i.imgur.com/BpvZCVe.gif

Correct. They had better consensus then than they do now even.

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

And in the new discussion, they are disregarding them and are going with a GFS/Euro blend

[Bocadude85]

Correct. They had better consensus then than they do now even.

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

And in the new discussion, they are disregarding them and are going with a GFS/Euro blend

The NHC did actually adjust the track southward 10ish miles.. every mile counts when it comes to surge.

[CronkPSU]

icon sticking to its tampa bay guns....

[caneseddy]

New Icon holding serve with Tampa Bay landfall and exiting though the Space Coast

[HDGator]

For the 100th time, this is how way off the "adjusted" early models and TVCN consensus models were off just 30-36 hours before Helene's landfall.
And look which models were correct? And ICON was in that pile with the GFS, Euro, HAFSs...

https://i.imgur.com/BpvZCVe.gif

Correct. They had better consensus then than they do now even.

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

Are the 00z globals going to show some southward trend or stick to the closer consensus they have now that is getting further north from the early adjusted models?

[Fancy1002]

Looks like icon goes directly into the Tampa Bay

[Poonwalker]

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

And in the new discussion, they are disregarding them and are going with a GFS/Euro blend

The NHC did actually adjust the track southward 10ish miles.. every mile counts when it comes to surge.

The Euro has been the one pulling the adjustment south. NHC always gives it weight. What will be interesting is to see if the Euro begins any north trend or if the others confirm more south. Both are going to be revealing.

[caneseddy]

NAM (I know I know) also brings Milton into Tampa Bay

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon St. Pete then out Cape Canaveral... still . slightly left/north of 18z and slightly stronger.

[CronkPSU]

0z Icon is actually a smidge north of 18z