ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

Will the EWRC that may be underway cause the size of the storm to increase?

It very well could. Will it? Nobody knows for sure.

[Exalt]

I think Milton has gotten a bit smaller.

The full Milton
https://i.imgur.com/q2LB7qM.gif

Coastal interaction?

[Blown Away]

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH

Another E wobble, looks like Milton will be E of the 06z point…

[psyclone]

It looks relentlessly eastbound. I'd expect the nhc to adjust south again...

[ElectricStorm]

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

[Stormgodess]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/xecDWYh.gif

What is the blob that's been in front of Milton this whole time, and what effect does it have on the storm besides dropping plenty of rain prior to landfall?

[caneseddy]

The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location

No change to the track and they are disregarding the model trackers that were showing further south so no all clear yet for Tampa.

[USTropics]

The good news throughout this is that (even with the predicted expansion of wind radius) Milton is a small system. It could conceivably thread the needle between Sarasota and Fort Meyers, or maybe even Tampa and Sarasota. Of course all places would still receive hurricane force winds and potentially life threatening surge, but the damage corridor would be minimized.

A storm like Katrina at this heading would bring 20-30+ feet of surge over the entire region, and major hurricane impacts across the most populated corridor in Florida, and be a true catastrophe. Milton will be disastrous but more localized, like an Anti-Helene.

Will the EWRC that may be underway cause the size of the storm to increase?

It very well could. Will it? Nobody knows for sure.

While EWRC can increase the wind field, further contraction of the eye wall can also decrease the wind field. The HAFSB model has been performing the best in terms of intensity, and in the loop below you can see this cool interaction of the wind field expansion as Milton initially intensified a few days ago, wind field shrinks as the eye contracts, and then the wind field expands after the EWRC competes. We're seeing the same process here. The true wind field expansion will occur when Milton begins to interact with the trough axis more tomorrow (starting around 8am-2pm). All of the hurricane models have a significantly expanding wind field as it does this (the NHC is even expecting the wind field to more than double).

[NFLnut]

Can someone help me. I think on this site during Helene someone posted a link to a web page that showed the wind/projected wind for your location.

Does anyone remember or know that link? Thanks.

The one I use is at good ol' Weather.gov.

Once there, enter your zip code in the box to the upper left corner. Press GO. Once there, scroll 2/3's down and click on "Tabular Forecast." Pick the 48 hour period you're looking for. There you will find surface wind and gusts forecast. I have used this for years. It's usually pretty close although yesterday it showed 70--92--70 gusts over 3 hours. I think the 92 was an anomaly but it seems correct to me now.

[FLLurker32]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/9QGGzxCq/goes16-ir-14-L-202410090117.gif [/url]

INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH

Another E wobble, looks like Milton will be E of the 06z point…

Overall motion is still on track. It’s just a ton of energy navigating its NE turn.

[psyclone]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

[CronkPSU]

Second discussion in a row talking about an extratropical transition near landfall…can anyone give an explanation of how that affects the impact of the storm? I see the NHC is no longer keeping it a cat 2 near Orlando

[Mike33534]

The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location

No change to the track and they are disregarding the model trackers that were showing further south so no all clear yet for Tampa.

Seems like they are hedging on the side of caution in case of something unexpected happening

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

[psyclone]

The very heavy rain modeled on the north side of this storm is slated to hammer the tampa bay and Orlando regions. Unless the storm angles farther south those areas still going to take a beating. Ian had that heavy convection weighted northwest as well.

[ColdFusion]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

[USTropics]

Second discussion in a row talking about an extratropical transition near landfall…can anyone give an explanation of how that affects the impact of the storm? I see the NHC is no longer keeping it a cat 2 near Orlando

See my post above on wind field expansion, that is the biggest. Basically a significant front is pushing down (may get dewpoints in the 30s here in Tally). Milton will begin to feel those baroclinic influences (lots of dry, stable air behind the cold front). Essentially, it's transition from a warm core, tropical cyclone to more of a cold core, mid-latitude/extratropical cyclone will be quick:

[NDG]

Glad the latest NHC forecast track is a blend of the GFS and Euro, what I have been preaching all the time.

The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location.

[psyclone]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

That's actually a very high number. I follow the probability tables closely...a third is alot and two thirds is very high. Tampa peaked at 50% IIRC so we are dropping nicely

[johngaltfla]

Hurricane wind odds in Tampa fell to 37% (still high but a big drop) while hurricane wind odds in Venice rose to an astounding 67%. My goodness brace for impact down that way...!

Potential paths are close to my house down here on the south side of Sarasota.

Tomorrow night will not be dull.

Wait, so are you saying there's a 63% chance Tampa doesn't even get Hurricane strength winds now? Wow.

I wouldn't bet against the COAMPS or ICON yet. In 12-18 hours we'll have the best picture.