ATL: MILTON - Models

[NDG]

Nothing has changed with Milton, the early adjusted models are all separate at landfall from the global models, same as Helene.

And in the new discussion, they are disregarding them and are going with a GFS/Euro blend

The NHC did actually adjust the track southward 10ish miles.. every mile counts when it comes to surge.

More like 5 miles at the most.

[TR772]

Interesting...

https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/184384 ... 0206556395

[NDG]

Zoomed in 0z ICON, a spit image of its earlier 18z run but an hour earlier on landfall of around 2 AM EDST.

[Poonwalker]

NHC brings this to Sarasota.

[FLLurker32]

0z Icon St. Pete then out Cape Canaveral... still . slightly left/north of 18z and slightly stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/YGRJndM.gif

I’m not convinced all of that energy, while transitioning to extratropical is going to just get pulled straight across like that.

[NDG]

Interesting...

https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/184384 ... 0206556395

On the website I use it shows that Milton has been heading at 49 deg during the past 6 hours.
ICON has been showing Milton taking on almost a NNE heading after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning gaining more latitude before heading back to NE heading then ENE as it makes landfall.

[fci]

Interesting...

https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/184384 ... 0206556395

It is interesting and his answers on the thread are excellent.

[SouthFLTropics]

Interesting post regarding a somber moment during one of the hurricane hunters trips through Milton’s eye.

https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1843 ... 8HqY_wVNcQ


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steve]

Interesting...

https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/184384 ... 0206556395

On the website I use it shows that Milton has been heading at 49 deg during the past 6 hours.
ICON has been showing Milton taking on almost a NNE heading after midnight tonight through tomorrow morning gaining more latitude before heading back to NE heading then ENE as it makes landfall.

It’s not long to find out but I’m gonna try to go to sleep for tomorrow. Last 2 nights I woke up at 3 and 4 and picked up my phone from under the pillow but put it back down and said no. Haha. GFS is finally starting to show on Pivotal. I’ll stay up for that and maybe the Canadian. Not too much to glean from HRRR or FV3. I doubt their depictions are right but of note is the north weighting of the storms ahead of landfall. Makes sense ahead and out front of the shear but that has to play out.

[caneseddy]

GFS says to Icon got room for one more? Also into Tampa Bay...maybe a smidge south (around Anna Maria)

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS being persistent with Tampa Bay, out Cape Canaveral.

[CronkPSU]

GFS just a smidge south...very southern most part of tampa bay

[shah83]

More important aspect of GFS run is that it's less damaged and more tropical at landfall, like last night's 00z run.

[Cat5James]

More important aspect of GFS run is that it's less damaged and more tropical at landfall, like last night's 00z run.

GFS initialized at 970 and makes landfall at 969mb… doesn’t seem like much weakening

[NDG]

We can probably say the GFS is a good consensus to use between the ICON and Euro.

[caneseddy]

Canadian into Sarasota...almost seems to make a right hand turn before entering into Tampa Bay

[BobHarlem]

0z Canadian also sticks to it's 12z point, between Sarasota/Bradenton, out Cape Canaveral


If the globals wind up being correct, I'm really wondering about what went wrong the earlies.

[FLLurker32]

The GFS has a much more realistic curved directional change across the state than the ICON imho.

[caneseddy]

So far we have the following:

ICON- Tampa Bay
GFS: Tampa Bay
Canadian: Sarasota/Bradenton

I was checking all the other models that have fun on Pivotal Weather besides the above and they all show Tampa Bay

Now we wait for the Euro and hurricane models

I would think that if Euro swings closer to Tampa Bay they are going to have to adjust a bit more to the north correct?

[BobHarlem]

Love it or hate it, here's the GRAF
 https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/status/1843841847065530794