ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Landy]

Eye entering NEXRAD range... it's getting real now...

[Beef Stew]

Milton sure appears to be in the midst of another round of intensification... we should find out relatively shortly if that's the case or not from this upcoming AF pass.

[Beef Stew]

Eye entering NEXRAD range... it's getting real now...

https://i.ibb.co/RgSJbrG/KBYX-Super-Res-Reflectivity-1-1-00-AM-1.png

We're probably going to get some absolutely absurd radar velocity readings as Milton gets more in range and has more coverage...

[Abdullah]

Milton sure appears to be in the midst of another round of intensification... we should find out relatively shortly if that's the case or not from this upcoming AF pass.

Based on the speed of the plane and the current position of the storm, the first center pass should occur around 1:35 AM and we'll be getting data around 1:45.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye entering NEXRAD range... it's getting real now...

https://i.ibb.co/RgSJbrG/KBYX-Super-Res-Reflectivity-1-1-00-AM-1.png

Which radar?

[Landy]

Eye entering NEXRAD range... it's getting real now...

https://i.ibb.co/RgSJbrG/KBYX-Super-Res-Reflectivity-1-1-00-AM-1.png

Which radar?

Key West.

[utweather]

Kinda creepy the rest of the US is practically cloud free.

[NotoSans]

recon doing a w-e pass first. centre fix should be in the next 20 min.

[869MB]

FYI…

Mesoscale Discussion 2134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Areas affected...portions of the extreme southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090431Z - 090600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of supercells may approach the extreme southern
tip of the FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours, perhaps
accompanied by a tornado threat. The severe threat should remain
very localized, and a Tornado Watch issuance does not currently
appear imminent.

DISCUSSION...Pronounced supercell structures have materialized near
a baroclinic boundary over FL Bay over the past hour or so, and are
drifting north at around 5 kts. KBYX radar imagery depicts up to 35
kt rotation velocities about 2500 ft AGL, suggesting that
mesocyclonic waterspouts may be in progress. At the moment,
hodographs on regional VADs do not appear overly impressive,
suggesting that favorable low-level shear/SRH is likely constrained
to small areas nearest to the baroclinic boundary. Furthermore,
adequate instability appears to be constrained to mainly southern
Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. As such, any inland tornado
potential realized by these supercells as they attempt to move
ashore should be very limited in spatial extent, so a Tornado Watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. However, a Tornado Watch
issuance will become more probable into the morning hours as the
more favorable environment gradually expands and shifts northward.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 10/09/2024

[grapealcoholic]

Milton doing well in the face of strong shear.

[Rail Dawg]

Hot bath water.

Hottest in the world in the Gulf if you glance at a worldwide SST chart.

Latent Heat of Condensation - The fuel of all hurricanes.

Cat 5 ya'll need to get away from the shorelines. Far away.

The storm surge doesn't come at you and you boogie. It rises all around you.

Chuck

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and extrapolation:

Recorded positions:

22.7N, 87.5W — 5 PM
22.0N, 86.9W — 8 PM
23.4N, 86.5W — 11 PM

Projected positions (including extrapolations)

23.9N, 86.1W — 2 AM extrap.
24.4N, 85.7W — 5 AM extrap.
24.7N, 85.3W — 8 AM projection at 11 PM forecast discussion

Real position
23.8N, 86.0W — 1:25 AM

---

This may be seen in the satellite loop below:



Using 24N, 86W as an easy benchmark (one which should have been reached around 2:45 AM), it seems that Milton is heading south of the forecast track once again.

Although it is at the right latitude it is expected to be, it is moving east much faster than anticipated. If this continues, perhaps another shift of the forecast track South is in the works come the 5 AM advisory.

[TomballEd]

It will be close but the dry air should get there before landfall.

[Beef Stew]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Milton doing well in the face of strong shear.

Keep in mind, this product in particular isn't as straightforward as it seems, especially when looking at storms that are strong enough to alter and create their own environment. Outflow is going to be registered as shear here, so a lot of that red, unfavorable area surrounding Milton right now is from its own outflow.

[wx98]

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack is usually the most interesting as far as cameras go.

Thanks, noted as well. Although I admit, I've always been a Jim Cantore fanboy. Of course he may not end up where Milton goes lol.

It’s a whole different world than Cantore. Mark will seek out eyewalls and the like for the most action there is. Just an FYI

Imo I don’t support untrained people who use YouTube to monetize disasters for their own personal gain. As such, I steer clear of Ryan Hall and his clickbait content. There are many legitimate meteorologists to follow who offer the same or better information.

[Beef Stew]

AF plane about to make the first NW to SE pass.

[Abdullah]

912.6 mbar extrap

[wx98]

The CDO is really beginning to flatten out on the northwest side. The eye is now displaced toward the northwest side instead of firmly in the middle. Water vapor showing signs of dry air off to the west that should begin to wrap in over the next 12 hours. Another EWRC is likely given the behavior of the eye, which may not complete as cleanly as the first one given the increasingly hostile conditions that will be encountered. Expect a slow weakening trend in line with the NHC forecast.

[wx98]

The first recon pass shows it’s still holding its own for now, but again a gradual weakening is to be expected beginning over the next 12 hours or so.

[Beef Stew]

053430 2358N 08607W 6965 02948 9786 +126 +035 061061 062 062 002 00
053500 2357N 08606W 6970 02925 9766 +127 +039 056066 069 065 003 00
053530 2355N 08605W 6967 02904 9764 +104 +044 057076 080 073 003 00
053600 2354N 08604W 6971 02865 9734 +095 +045 062088 093 080 007 00
053630 2353N 08603W 6969 02820 9675 +102 +044 060100 103 090 015 00
053700 2351N 08602W 6980 02751 9616 +099 +042 056114 120 095 066 00
053730 2350N 08602W 6933 02718 9509 +106 +040 049129 133 122 085 00
053800 2348N 08601W 6972 02520 9347 +116 +038 043111 133 170 036 00
053830 2347N 08600W 6976 02392 9189 +150 +042 032051 094 168 018 00
053900 2345N 08558W 6974 02356 9146 +152 +047 012017 033 057 003 00
053930 2345N 08556W 6986 02323 9126 +154 +052 225013 020 033 001 00
054000 2344N 08554W 6975 02348 9136 +151 +059 204036 042 045 003 03
054030 2343N 08553W 6965 02374 9143 +167 +064 213070 088 088 006 00
054100 2342N 08552W 6955 02465 9261 +120 +069 221124 138 144 034 00
054130 2341N 08551W 6969 02568 9393 +115 +067 220138 145 148 026 00