ATL: MILTON - Models

[Fancy1002]

It seems the deciding factor for Tampa will be weither Milton goes from a northeast movement to an east northeast movement around three in the morning.

[FLLurker32]

Love it or hate it, here's the GRAF
https://twitter.com/jnelsonWJCL/status/1843841847065530794

Woah. Not only Tampa but the way it’s continuing a hard NE across the state would cause problems through ALL central FL metro areas, St. Augustine and Jacksonville. Ugly run.

[Tekken_Guy]

It seems the deciding factor for Tampa will be weither Milton goes from a northeast movement to an east northeast movement around three in the morning.

Which one’s which?

[Fancy1002]

It seems the deciding factor for Tampa will be weither Milton goes from a northeast movement to an east northeast movement around three in the morning.

Which one’s which?

North east sends it into or just above the bay, while east northeast sends it just below the bay.

[NDG]

0z Canadian also sticks to it's 12z point, between Sarasota/Bradenton, out Cape Canaveral
https://i.imgur.com/GoZNUIm.gif

If the globals wind up being correct, I'm really wondering about what went wrong the earlies.

It wouldn't be the first time, the were biased with Francine, and they were biased with Helene.

[Keldeo1997]

Not good. HAFS is uptreading on approach.

[Fancy1002]

HAFS B is just….wow.

[NDG]

So far HAFS-B is stronger and a little west than previous runs.

[Teban54]

HAFS-B wants a mid-range Cat 4 to tie Wilma's pressure

[NDG]

But has it making landfall near Sarasota/LongboatKey.

[Fancy1002]

Like I said, everything seems to depend on whether it makes that directional shift in between midnight and 3 AM. I’ll definitely be staying up to see what happens.

[FLLurker32]

But has it making landfall near Sarasota/LongboatKey.

https://i.imgur.com/y6lqLn7.png

Same track it had at 18z. Looks like it keeps it more ENE on approach vs. Any NE heading.

[caneseddy]

But has it making landfall near Sarasota/LongboatKey.

https://i.imgur.com/y6lqLn7.png

Tampa Bay gets slammed with the northern quadrant....no bueno

So far all models are converging between Sarasota and Tampa Bay and stronger

[NDG]

HAFS-A shows a solid Major Hurricane at landfall, so does HAFS-B

[Fancy1002]

Both of the HAFS seem to have shifted slightly south, while the HMON is still heading directly into the bay. HWRF is still running, but my bet is that it will stick to its slight north path.

[caneseddy]

Both of the HAFS seem to have shifted slightly south, while the HMON is still heading directly into the bay. HWRF is still running, but my bet is that it will stick to its slight north path.

HWRF has eye right over Downtown Tampa

[FLLurker32]

Both of the HAFS seem to have shifted slightly south, while the HMON is still heading directly into the bay. HWRF is still running, but my bet is that it will stick to its slight north path.

You may have a version more hi res than what I’m looking at but I don’t see any notable change at all in landfall or exit points on either HAFS model. HMON is largely the same as 18z and very similar to 0z GFS. HWRF looks to be around the same as last run, maybe a few miles south from 18z.

[caneseddy]

Euro shifts north bit and now has landfall now over Tampa Bay or right at the southern tip. Previous run had it closer to Longboat Key/Sarasota

To recap...the 00z runs have not been good for Tampa in both landfall and strength

ICON: Tampa Bay
GFS: Tampa Bay
Canadian: Sarasota/Bradenton
HWRF: St. Petersburg
HMON: Tampa Bay
HAFS: Tampa Bay
Euro: Tampa Bay

[Fancy1002]

Both of the HAFS seem to have shifted slightly south, while the HMON is still heading directly into the bay. HWRF is still running, but my bet is that it will stick to its slight north path.

You may have a version more hi res than what I’m looking at but I don’t see any notable change at all in landfall or exit points on either HAFS model. HMON is largely the same as 18z and very similar to 0z GFS. HWRF looks to be around the same as last run, maybe a few miles south from 18z.

Look on tropical tidbits

[Fancy1002]

Both of the HAFS seem to have shifted slightly south, while the HMON is still heading directly into the bay. HWRF is still running, but my bet is that it will stick to its slight north path.

You may have a version more hi res than what I’m looking at but I don’t see any notable change at all in landfall or exit points on either HAFS model. HMON is largely the same as 18z and very similar to 0z GFS. HWRF looks to be around the same as last run, maybe a few miles south from 18z.

It’s a very slight shift south, likely due to a east north east approach as opposed to a northeast approach