Top 5 Worst Case Scenarios

[galaxy401]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

1. New Orleans: This one infamously happened...and it only happened just a year after this post. (Katrina)

2. Tampa: This one is pending. Ian was similar to Charley but Milton is definitively the biggest threat to the region.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

4. Houston: Since it's more inland, any hurricane will be weaker when it goes through the city. The one that did the most damage so far was Ike.

5. Miami: So far Miami has been spared in the 20 years. Florida has been getting pounded but the east coast has been mostly spared. Dorian was probably the closest threat.

[AJC3]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

Track-wise, honorable mention goes to Irene in 2011.

[Beef Stew]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

1. New Orleans: This one infamously happened...and it only happened just a year after this post. (Katrina)

2. Tampa: This one is pending. Ian was similar to Charley but Milton is definitively the biggest threat to the region.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

4. Houston: Since it's more inland, any hurricane will be weaker when it goes through the city. The one that did the most damage so far was Ike.

5. Miami: So far Miami has been spared in the 20 years. Florida has been getting pounded but the east coast has been mostly spared. Dorian was probably the closest threat.

It really is eerie to read the posts here prior to Katrina.

For the Palm Beach-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami metro area, it still amazes me how just how close Irma and Dorian were to being complete disasters for the region. Synoptically speaking, so much as a tiny deviation from what occurred easily could've sent both into the area as historically strong hurricanes. One day, the area won't be as lucky.

Two other very bad, albeit not wholly unrealistic scenarios I'd mention that could one day happen:

1) A major hurricane into Jacksonville. Not much more needs to be said here- this is a major metro area that has seen dramatic population growth in the past two decades, and is at a high risk for flooding, both from surge and rainfall. There is also a high degree of complacency in this region- many would assume that a storm won't actually hit, "because they always turn away".

2) A major hurricane into Savannah, Georgia, that tracks more-or-less up the Savannah River- think Hugo's path, just shifted southward. While not a major city, the greater Savannah area (Pooler and Hilton Head Island included) has grown significantly over the last two decades as well. The region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge, and many of Savannah's massive trees and historic buildings haven't been tested by a major hurricane since 1893, if at all. Inland flooding throughout Georgia and South Carolina along the Savannah River watershed and even up into Augusta would be potentially catastrophic as well, especially from a slow-moving storm. Luckily, this is not a common track for a hurricane to take- but historical precedent does exist.

[CrazyC83]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

1. New Orleans: This one infamously happened...and it only happened just a year after this post. (Katrina)

2. Tampa: This one is pending. Ian was similar to Charley but Milton is definitively the biggest threat to the region.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

4. Houston: Since it's more inland, any hurricane will be weaker when it goes through the city. The one that did the most damage so far was Ike.

5. Miami: So far Miami has been spared in the 20 years. Florida has been getting pounded but the east coast has been mostly spared. Dorian was probably the closest threat.

It really is eerie to read the posts here prior to Katrina.

For the Palm Beach-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami metro area, it still amazes me how just how close Irma and Dorian were to being complete disasters for the region. Synoptically speaking, so much as a tiny deviation from what occurred easily could've sent both into the area as historically strong hurricanes. One day, the area won't be as lucky.

Two other very bad, albeit not wholly unrealistic scenarios I'd mention that could one day happen:

1) A major hurricane into Jacksonville. Not much more needs to be said here- this is a major metro area that has seen dramatic population growth in the past two decades, and is at a high risk for flooding, both from surge and rainfall. There is also a high degree of complacency in this region- many would assume that a storm won't actually hit, "because they always turn away".

2) A major hurricane into Savannah, Georgia, that tracks more-or-less up the Savannah River- think Hugo's path, just shifted southward. While not a major city, the greater Savannah area (Pooler and Hilton Head Island included) has grown significantly over the last two decades as well. The region is extremely vulnerable to storm surge, and many of Savannah's massive trees and historic buildings haven't been tested by a major hurricane since 1893, if at all. Inland flooding throughout Georgia and South Carolina along the Savannah River watershed and even up into Augusta would be potentially catastrophic as well, especially from a slow-moving storm. Luckily, this is not a common track for a hurricane to take- but historical precedent does exist.

In both cases, all you would need is a poorly positioned Bermuda High, or a building ridge to the north, and the storm could move in. In a poorly positioned Bermuda High, it would spread overland, opening an alleyway into Jacksonville (nearly happened with Matthew!) or Savannah. In the second scenario, a ridge builds in over the eastern US and moves the storm west - similar to, say, Dorian but farther north. That would also be a pretty slow moving storm moving in with that synoptic pattern.

[CrazyC83]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

1. New Orleans: This one infamously happened...and it only happened just a year after this post. (Katrina)

2. Tampa: This one is pending. Ian was similar to Charley but Milton is definitively the biggest threat to the region.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

4. Houston: Since it's more inland, any hurricane will be weaker when it goes through the city. The one that did the most damage so far was Ike.

5. Miami: So far Miami has been spared in the 20 years. Florida has been getting pounded but the east coast has been mostly spared. Dorian was probably the closest threat.

Had the ridge not built in at the last minute to the west, Dorian would have been the worst disaster South Florida had ever seen, and likely the costliest (and one of the deadliest?) US hurricanes on record. Even 12 more hours of movement would have brought a category 5 hurricane into Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach (one of them) and that doesn't even account for the stall. That would have been the 1926 hurricane on powerful steroids.

[Tekken_Guy]

Well since we bumped this very old thread, might as well look in retrospective what changed in the 20 years.

1. New Orleans: This one infamously happened...and it only happened just a year after this post. (Katrina)

2. Tampa: This one is pending. Ian was similar to Charley but Milton is definitively the biggest threat to the region.

3. New York City: Considering the location, this one is hard to happen. The closest situation we had was Sandy.

4. Houston: Since it's more inland, any hurricane will be weaker when it goes through the city. The one that did the most damage so far was Ike.

5. Miami: So far Miami has been spared in the 20 years. Florida has been getting pounded but the east coast has been mostly spared. Dorian was probably the closest threat.

Had the ridge not built in at the last minute to the west, Dorian would have been the worst disaster South Florida had ever seen, and likely the costliest (and one of the deadliest?) US hurricanes on record. Even 12 more hours of movement would have brought a category 5 hurricane into Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach (one of them) and that doesn't even account for the stall. That would have been the 1926 hurricane on powerful steroids.

Or Irma had it not been for Cuba.

[Jr0d]

Worst case scenario for me in the lower Florida Keys would be a storm rapidly intensifying from a depression to major hurricane in less than 36 hours while on a path towards the Keys. This would be bad for any of the barrier islands along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts, but a nightmare for the Florida Keys.with one road out maling it impossible to evacuate everyone before the conditions get too dangerous to drive over the many bridges.

My understanding about the 1935 is it rapidly intensified and moved southwest, an uncommon path. If it were to happen today, the lower Keys likely would not have time to evacuate.

Most of the islands in the chain are vulnerable to being completely inundated with surge from a major storm, hence the need to evacuate. Most structures can not withstand 150 mph winds and because the Keys being tiny islands, we do not get the wind speed decay that most see even a few miles from the coast on the mainland.

[Ernestt]

I'd add Charleston to the list, because there is a remote possiblity that it gets hit by a strong earthquake and a hurricane at the same time. Given all the rain and flooding Charleston could face, a combination of disasters would be very bad. Something similar could happen for some of the cities on the southern island of Kyushu